BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Silver Surfer]

You can argue whether or not BVS is a flop, but one thing is for certain, it is certainly an embarrassment for WB and DC, especially when CW comes out and outshines it in every conceivable way.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

"THE BOSS earned an estimated $8.1M on opening day Friday."
"BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE earned an estimated $6.045M on Friday. Domestic total is now $279.3M."
I dont know if i should laugh or cry...

Well, there you have it folks. I expect this will continue through the weekend

 

[Gerontophobe]

I'm just waiting for the people who "guaranteed" The Boss wouldn't beat it to come back around

I said I would be surprised if The Boss beat BvS once the reviews came in. I figured BvS had finally stabilized about 5% under F7 numbers and would stay about there for the rest of its run. How could it possibly slip below an awful McCarthy comedy? Instead, it was 28% under F7's comparable Friday and I somehow continue to overestimate this flick.

 

[Silver Surfer]

23 million for the boss

21.3 million for BVS

 

[warcam]

Nice work, WB. In its 3rd week, your big franchise movie will probably lose to an R-rated Melissa McCarthy movie with reviews worse than yours. Good job.

 

[MadVillainy]

23 million for the boss

21.3 million for BVS

Damn...
and if the Boss retains a top 3 spot next week BvS can be pushed to number 4 come next week

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

I bet Disney is kicking themselves even harder now for not releasing Jungle Book this weekend

 

[MadVillainy]

Nice work, WB. In its 3rd week, your big franchise movie will probably lose to an R-rated Melissa McCarthy movie with reviews worse than yours. Good job.

Worse CineScore too

 

[Silver Surfer]

With all the toxic negativity around this franchise now, if your WB, why would you even want a DCU? especially when the profits are going down not up compared to its launch.

 

[warcam]

I somehow continue to overestimate this flick.

You'll fit right in at WB. t:

 

[SpideyZERO]

I mean even ASM2 did not go this bad right? And that even force Sony to team up with Disney

Wonder what will be WB's next move

 

[Flint Marko]

You'll fit right in at WB. t:

Points!

 

[Gerontophobe]

Damn...
and if the Boss retains a top 3 spot next week BvS can be pushed to number 4 come next week

I initially was going to refute the probability of this but I think you're probably right. McCarthy comedies hold surprisingly well; Tammy fell 42% and I don't think many will predict BvS will hold better than that.

Jungle Book will obviously be number one while Barbershop is very likely 2nd. The Boss will probably be third and if Zootopia continues to hold well it may even beat BvS, although I'm guessing JB will hit it pretty hard and thus BvS will avoid a fifth place finish.

 

[MadVillainy]

With all the toxic negativity around this franchise now, if your WB, why would you even want a DCU? especially when the profits are going down not up compared to its launch.

If JL (and to a lesser extend SS and WW) doesn't turn things around then I expect them to not want a DCU.

You don't make a product to barely break even

 

[Marvin]

And we all know WB doesn't lie about their numbers to save face...

http://www.warnerbros.com/studio/ne...pening-weekend-global-box-office-4241-million

To save face? Alot of studios came in under and over by various units when it comes to estimates vs actuals. Not to mention how difficult it may very well be to figure out those sorts of things for easter Sunday into easter Monday.
I'm sure they were on the optimistic but this is your actual proof as to why deadlines 'predictions' are rock solid? An optimistic opening prediction that was off by a few units?

Maybe I asked the wrong person, I mean the weeks long crusade here has no pause.

Given that we don't know what they spent on marketing for IM2(unlike BvS) then the basic rule of 2X the production budget to break even applies....so IM2 needed $400m WW to break even. After that is all profit but you also have to account for exchange rates and foreign taxes and what not. Ballpark is that IM2 profited Marvel $100-150m theatrically.

Wouldn't that mean BvS needed 500 to break even? I'm mainly missing the part that accounts for the 400million dollar discrepancy is all.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So if BVS needed 925 million to break even, then JL, which is budgeted to be the most expensive movie ever made, will need what? 1.5 billion to break even? Has WB lost their minds?

 

[Baneis8feettall]

Nice work, WB. In its 3rd week, your big franchise movie will probably lose to an R-rated Melissa McCarthy movie with reviews worse than yours. Good job.

…in your most private moments…I want you to remember…my hand…at your throat…I want…you to remember…the one woman who beat you.

 

[Flint Marko]

Maybe I asked the wrong person, I mean the weeks long crusade here has no pause.

You're the guy who remained "unconvinced" that TWS made more of a profit than MoS even after I showed you figures and estimations that put TWS' total gross in the neighborhood of 100 million more than MoS. Yeah, let's not start talking about "crusades" here, let's stick to the numbers.

 

[MadVillainy]

…in your most private moments…I want you to remember…my hand…at your throat…I want…you to remember…the one woman who beat you.

damn, Damn DAAAAAAAAAAAAMN

 

[I Am The Knight]

…in your most private moments…I want you to remember…my hand…at your throat…I want…you to remember…the one woman who beat you.

Dude

 

[Gerontophobe]

To save face? Alot of studios came in under and over by various units when it comes to estimates vs actuals. Not to mention how difficult it may very well be to figure out those sorts of things for easter Sunday into easter Monday.
I'm sure they were on the optimistic but this is your actual proof as to why deadlines 'predictions' are rock solid? An optimistic opening prediction that was off by a few units?

Wouldn't that mean BvS needed 500 to break even? I'm mainly missing the part that accounts for the 400million dollar discrepancy is all.

I think it may be a little unfair to single out WB for picking optimistic estimations. Yes, inflating OW to $170M to "beat" HP was a little slimy but to be expected. At least WB is better than Paramount, which fudged actual numbers (by moving Monday gross into Sunday) so they could claim a $100M OW for TF4.

As for IM2, I agree that the math is a little suspect. Usually 2.5X production budget is a decent estimate but that assumes a marketing budget more typical for wide releases (about $40M domestically). IM2 was widely rumored to have a $150M marketing budget on top of the $200M production budget which would put the break-even mark at $600-700M (using Deadline's profit estimates from other blockbusters) which is right where it finished. Note that Deadline includes most expenses and revenue streams (e.g. home video) but not merchandising.

The big difference is IM2 showed that the MCU could continue to hit big numbers both domestically and abroad. Also, the per dollar return was likely much better and the expectations (from investors) were lower.

 

[Logan0327]

bvs is lucky deadpool was banned in china because if it wasn't i doubt it would out gross it

 

[warcam]

…in your most private moments…i want you to remember…my hand…at your throat…i want…you to remember…the one woman who beat you.

lmao

 

[Flint Marko]

Bane just won post of the week, far as I'm concerned.

 

[samsnee]

It's honestly embarrassing at this point the level of drops.