BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[mightiest_mortal]

For comparison does anyone know how much other SH movies earned their respective companies?

Well it states in the article that AUO was close to 850 mil profit.

 

[MadVillainy]

thanks

 

[Stark Bauer]

Well it states in the article that AUO was close to 850 mil profit.

What's AUO? Age Uf Oltron?

 

[Stark Bauer]

Looking at the week by week

BvS collapsed by -69.1%

Wk 1 $209.0M
Wk 2 $64.2M

I was predicting $75M!

 

[Poni_Boy]

No one expected Iron Man to be a hit. It wasn’t expected to launch the massive franchise it became as fast as it did. It just worked out that way, because the audience told the studio they wanted more. DC is budgeting their movies as though they already have a successful, long running universe, when they don’t. Gotta keep these budgets in check to turn a profit.

 

[Darkstar]

As I said to somebody else on another forum two weeks ago, the movie has to have legs financially beyond the first week: sad to see what I said come true (and I liked both movies.) Now thanks to the wider movie going public, we'll be getting a (most likely) very saccharine Superman reboot similar to the Donner movies, and that won't be good.

 

[metaphysician]

'Happy' with $800mil?
I think not....

Perhaps 'happy' in this context means "no high execs throw themselves out of 20th floor windows"?

 

[STARMAN]

Pandya has 6 mill for Fri. Projecting 21 m for weekend. About 58% drop.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Pandya has 6 mill for Fri. Projecting 21 m for weekend. About 58% drop.

A 60% drop. $20 mil. In its third weekend. With no competition. And all the big revenue screens. Bleh

 

[STARMAN]

A 60% drop. $20 mil. In its third weekend. With no competition. And all the big revenue screens. Bleh

I believe Pandya's projections are usually a little higher than the actual number. So I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in a little lower than his 21 mill, 58% projection.

 

[Orba]

Internationally, BATMAN V SUPERMAN grossed $7.6M on Friday. Total is now $463M. CHN ($91M) UK ($45M) MEX ($32M) BRZ ($25M) OZ ($19M)

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/718821869525164035

 

[Marvin]

Are you talking about Iron Man 2? BvS is less profitable and less successful

Yea I'm talking raw numbers, last I read IM2 had a listed 50 million dollar lower production budget than BvS. I imagine BvS has already grossed 50 million dollars more than the former, I'm mostly curious how much more it needs to make to be as profitable...numbers wise.

As for these other hypotheticals. I'm not so interested in for we can attribute any number of 'this and that' to form our own narrative. As I've said before Deadpool and more to the point Guardians are Y list characters, Captain America is an icon(plain and simple), that the formers have far outgrossed the him, particularly in their first movies could be used to make all sorts of skewed arguments about his under performance. Or how the new bench mark for Y list characters paints Antman as something of a struggle and not success. The numbers however paint the only real picture that holds any weight. Moreso anyways than these types of hypotheticals.

When it comes to film brands, things are a product of their circumstance. James Bond may be the biggest most iconic thing ever in terms of cinema spies but that doesn't mean his all his films, regardless of quality won't be subject to any number of circumstances(see following Brosnan or being a reboot). Batman knows this all to well. All this talk of iconic this or that means little otherwise every Jesus movie would be doing StarWars numbers. It's about your box office worth, both historically and specifically in the here and now. But I digress, I was just asking if as a second film and launching point, was BvS as or more or lesss profitable than IM2 given their similar numbers. Not what does one failure mean vs another or anything like that.

I read somewhere that BvS is looking like a 40% increase over the film it's following up. Numbers like that probably mean something to the studio at base level.

 

[Orba]

Box Office have the Friday estimate at $6.045M

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/718824177256570880

 

[Marvin]

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/718821869525164035

500 million internationally is pretty solid when it comes to foreign markets going forward. When it comes to WB cbms that's pretty great.
They need to improve on this by 2 or 3 units though if they really want to stride into the 3 - 4 hundred million past a billion class.
Perhaps after a few more films build the brand over seas. Maybe a few(more) patronizing castings or shooting locals here and there.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yea I'm talking raw numbers, last I read IM2 had a listed 50 million dollar lower production budget than BvS. I imagine BvS has already grossed 50 million dollars more than the former, I'm mostly curious how much more it needs to make to be as profitable...numbers wise.

$925 million according to Deadline

 

[kedrell]

Looks like 2 weekends at #1 DOM is all BvS will get. McCarthy's The Boss took in $2M more than BvS on Friday and will almost certainly win the weekend now.

 

[Marvin]

$925 million according to Deadline

Thats inflated.
According to WB.

Especially after that interesting read from forbes about co financing and promotions that served to minimize risk for the studios.
But still, if that were true, I'm more asking about what IM2 than needed at 200mill.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Thats inflated.
According to WB.

And we all know WB doesn't lie about their numbers to save face...

http://www.warnerbros.com/studio/ne...pening-weekend-global-box-office-4241-million

 

[kedrell]

Given that we don't know what they spent on marketing for IM2(unlike BvS) then the basic rule of 2X the production budget to break even applies....so IM2 needed $400m WW to break even. After that is all profit but you also have to account for exchange rates and foreign taxes and what not. Ballpark is that IM2 profited Marvel $100-150m theatrically.

 

[Bats123]

"THE BOSS earned an estimated $8.1M on opening day Friday."
"BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE earned an estimated $6.045M on Friday. Domestic total is now $279.3M."
I dont know if i should laugh or cry...

 

[Limonade]

Looks like 2 weekends at #1 DOM is all BvS will get. McCarthy's The Boss took in $2M more than BvS on Friday and will almost certainly win the weekend now.

That's surprising to me. My prediction, pre-BvS release, had BvS at the #1 spot 3 weeks in a row. This does not bode well for current production crew of JL.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Thats inflated. According to WB.

Especially after that interesting read from forbes about co financing and promotions that served to minimize risk for the studios.
But still, if that were true, I'm more asking about what IM2 than needed at 200mill.

Given that we don't know what they spent on marketing for IM2(unlike BvS) then the basic rule of 2X the production budget to break even applies....so IM2 needed $400m WW to break even. After that is all profit but you also have to account for exchange rates and foreign taxes and what not. Ballpark is that IM2 profited Marvel $100-150m theatrically.

I’m not sure I totally buy that math, although we can’t really do much better without concrete numbers. At the time of release, the budget was pegged at $170M (later estimates said $200M; I think the $170M was news outlets accidentally pulling the $170M original IM budget form a THR piece) with a marketing spend of $150M.

For blockbusters the rule of thumb is usually 2.5X production budget (since studios take home ~52% of DOM, 40% of INT while marketing costs are usually around $40M for wide releases). However, if IM2 really did spend $150M in marketing then that math overstates profit; using the same math as BvS the breakeven number for IM2 was $600-700M which is right where it finished. Note that this figure would approximate to include all expenses and revenues (e.g. home video, TV sales) except for merchandising (which also isn’t accounted for in Deadline’s breakeven number for BvS).

Long story short, IM2 probably had a similar profitability as BvS. The key difference is that the per dollar return was better and it proved that the big gross of the first IM wasn’t an aberration and that the MCU was growing in popularity overseas. I think BvS is in a different boat since it wasn't a solo flick and the characters were already well-known (8 and 5 movies, respectively, compared to just 1 previously for IM).

 

[Poni_Boy]

"THE BOSS earned an estimated $8.1M on opening day Friday."
"BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE earned an estimated $6.045M on Friday. Domestic total is now $279.3M."
I dont know if i should laugh or cry...

I'm just waiting for the people who "guaranteed" The Boss wouldn't beat it to come back around

 

[Silver Surfer]

This seriously lost to the boss? Lol

 

[Kanon]

Box Office have the Friday estimate at $6.045M

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/718824177256570880

That's terrible. Below my most pesimistic scenario ($6.650M). If (and it's a big if for me right now) it keeps the F7 multiplier, it's headed for a $21M weekend (58% drop)

But maybe WB execs are "happy"