BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - - - Part 17

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]513597[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]512933[/split]

 

[Erzengel]

This wasn't even close to being a JL 0. Their was an arc for wonderwoman that didnt make much sense till Wonder Woman came out.

And no first outting for batman for any of the series has made 1 billion.

But I have realized that there is a better chance of it being cloudy with a chance of meatballs than to stop a couple people from using the "it's a box office failure" line in every single B vs S thread possible.

Who is the Big 3 in DC? Oh Superman, Wonder Woman and Batman. If anyone of these characters were missing from a JL, that would be such a hit against the movie. Is there such a huge uproar that GL isn't in JL? Would we really lose sleep if the Flash, Cyborg or Aquaman weren't in JL?

Lastly, I didn't say it was a huge failure. I said it should have made more which is the common consensus among fans, critics and analysts.

Batman vs Superman had historic drops. I am a fan of the movie (UC specifically) but I am truly fascinated on just how little the general public was willing to give it repeat viewings and support it longterm, which is what's needed to stand among the titans of the all-time box office. I'll lay out a couple of noteworthy figures:
BvS had an $81 million opening day. For reference, Avengers, Avengers: AOU, and Jurassic World all opened in the $80-84 million range opening day as well. All three of those opened to $190+ million (2/3 opened to $205+ million, A:AOU probably would have as well, had the Mayweather vs Pacquiao fight, the biggest PPV of all-time, not been on the same weekend ). BvS was on pace to do so as well. Toxic word of mouth for BvS got around, post opening day, leaving it well short of that mark, $166 million, for reference.

• There are 10 movies that have had $160+ million, opening weekend. All of them made over a billion worldwide except BvS.
• There are 15 movies total that have made $150+ million, opening weekend. 13 of 15 outgrossed BvS. The two that didn't were two out of the Hunger Games franchise. One was the very first one, when it had almost no foreign market. The other was HG:CF and it only finished $8 million dollars short of BvS.
• There are 24 movies that were able to hit $1+ billion worldwide despite having a lower opening weekend than BvS.
• There are 42(!) movies that outgrossed BvS despite a lower opening weekend.
• BvS made 50.3% of its total domestic gross on its opening weekend. For those that don't follow the box office, this is not the norm. Basically all, mildly successful and/or well-received movies, have a shelf life that doesn't result in their opening weekend being 50+% of their domestic gross. BvS was that anomaly. Here's a chart that has the top 200 or so, opening weekends of all-time. In the top 150, there are only two movies that made 50+% of its total domestic gross in its opening weekend. One was BvS. The other one? Fifty Shades of Grey.
• To add on to the previous bullet, you can expand it to the 208 movies on that list. Those 208 movies being, all the movies to ever have a $50+ million opening weekend. To add onto BvS and FSoG, there are three other movies that made 50+% of their domestic total on their opening weekend - Paranormal Activity, Valentines Day, and Watchmen (another Zack Snyder film)

.

So here you go, I wouldn't call BvS a financial blunder but it's had the most historical drops not just for the genre but for box office in general. If you can't get past the hyperbole over the word "failure", and say that $873M = Super Successful when you have movies like GOTG2 and WW who are doing better on smaller budgets, than I don't know what else to say.

 

[samsnee]

It's not a box office failure. It's a box office disappointment.

 

[metaphysician]

Yeah. Its gross would be fine. . .*if* it didn't have two of the most famous characters ever, and *if* it didn't have such a giant budget. As is, its "well, it broke even and wasn't a complete disaster". Its not something to be proud of.

 

[Flint Marko]

Yeah. Its gross would be fine. . .*if* it didn't have two of the most famous characters ever, and *if* it didn't have such a giant budget. As is, its "well, it broke even and wasn't a complete disaster". Its not something to be proud of.

Three

 

[metaphysician]

I am comfortable saying that, prior to her own movie, Wonder Woman was the definite poor cousin in terms of fame.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

I am comfortable saying that, prior to her own movie, Wonder Woman was the definite poor cousin in terms of fame.

Even among DC female characters about the only thing the average Joe knew about Wonder Woman was the Lynda Carter TV show in the 1970s. Sure there were cartoons, but did a lot of people watch them? Where with Catwoman there was the Batman TV show in the 1960s, Batman Returns, the awful Catwoman movie that was famous for how bad it was, The Dark Knight Rises, and the Gotham TV show. And with Supergirl there was the equally bad movie, Smallville, and the Supergirl TV show. Even Harley Quinn got a lot of notice from Suicide Squad. Now with the Wonder Woman movie, Diana is famous all over again.

 

[Flint Marko]

Wonder Woman has never been as popular as Superman, Batman, or Spider-man but she has always been iconic. Every time I saw the BvS trailer in theaters (which was a lot) the audience lit up whenever she appeared at the end. She was an integral part of the marketing for good reason.

 

[Flemm]

"I was like, of course you should make Wonder Woman. That's, like, a bag of money sitting in a closet. Do you want the bag of money?"

-Patty Jenkins (in an interview with Buzzfeed)

The potential was there, but the film-makers needed to cut through industry skepticism in order for WW to have a breakthrough into the mainstream.

There was the tv show in the 70s, but not a whole lot since then.

 

[FunkMiller]

So, who predicted a solo Wonder Woman movie would destroy Batman V Superman at the US box office?

Anyone?

...anyone at all?

 

[Ozbridge]

So, who predicted a solo Wonder Woman movie would destroy Batman V Superman at the US box office?

Anyone?

...anyone at all?

I predicted 380M for WW after reviews were in. Does that count?

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Wonder Woman is destroying everyone but Batman, Captain America, and Iron Man. Spider-Man Homecoming had a 73% drop from last Friday so it's unlikely Spider-Man will top her in domestic box office, or maybe even worldwide.

 

[The Joker]

WW didn't have any stiff competition like War of the Planet of the Apes, and soon Dunkirk, too. Same as how BvS didn't.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Wonder Woman was competing against Pirates of the Caribbean, It Comes at Night, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, Cars3, Rough Night, Transformers, Despicable Me 3.

 

[Jekecy]

Yeah, I don't know how anyone could reasonably say WW didn't have some strong potential competition. It greatly benefitted from its own quality, but also because everyone else heavily dropped the ball, paving the way for it to perform as it did.

I'm used to seeing perfect storms of box office success, but not in the magnitude of which all its competition completely faltered when at least one of them could have been breakout hits.

 

[metaphysician]

Yeah, there's a difference between potential competition and actual competition. WW would have suffered if, say, The Mummy were actually any good. As is? Not so much.

( And a few of those I don't see as even potential competition, because between later release date and different demo, they wouldn't meaningfully change much. Competition only really matters for the first couple weeks, after which point your in few enough theaters that the only thing mattering is your own performance. )

 

[The Joker]

Wonder Woman was competing against Pirates of the Caribbean, It Comes at Night, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, Cars3, Rough Night, Transformers, Despicable Me 3.

Captain Underpants, the movie that made a mere 79 mil WW. Cars 3, that made 220 mil WW. It comes at night which made 13 mil WW. Despicable Me 3 which didn't come out until 6 weeks after Wonder Woman? The Mummy, which was panned by audiences and critics. Rough Night which made 35 mil WW.

These are what you call stiff competition comparable to Apes and Dunkirk?

 

[I Am The Knight]

What I find most amusing is that people keep on bumping this thread for some reason