BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[fake]

So with Civil War absolutely crushing BvS in terms of trailer views, is anyone else having second thoughts about which of these movies will make more box office money? I originally thought BvS would beat out Civil War, but I'm not so sure anymore. Civil War got 60+ million views in one day, while BvS got 9-10 in two days.

BvS got 23M just from Youtube and Facebook, almost the exact same as CW had got from those 2 sources (I actually checked the Civil War trailer views when it was released on those 2 sources). To get to 61M, I have no idea which other sources they included.

 

[Zoom]

It won't make nearly as much as CW; that's for sure.

 

[John Locke]

BvS still has three weekends of no real competition. It will be close.

 

[Tra-El]

My mom knows nothing, but she's aware of my love for Superman and these movies. I may show her the trailer and video her reaction to it. If she isn't the GA, nobody is!

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

It won't make nearly as much as CW; that's for sure.

I disagree.

 

[Marvin]

Everyone's gonna watch it opening weekend, sure. But after that it's up to it's quality to get it passed the billion mark. And I don't have lots of faith in it's quality at this point.

Not that I agree with this rule, but if this is your thinking and something you stand by, you must know it will be used against you regardless of your 'review' on said movie.

You don't measure legs by comparing it to other film's totals. You do it by measuring how far it goes from it's opening weekend, percentage-wise. And MoS had a pretty poor multiplier. Now you can blame competition all you want but neither of those 2 big films it was competing with went on to any everlasting glory either. Basically it was 3 mediocre films slugging it out. Had MoS been as good as proponents suggest then it would have cut through the others. It didn't. Most movies that open as big as it did cross the $300m DOM mark with room to spare. It didn't.

I'm also not sure I agree with any of this, for example if a film makes 6 billion in it's first week and earns only 7 total...7 Billion overrides this talk of multipliers. Moreover, didn't mos have as good a multiplier as AOU(honest question), if so, and that's a solid if, it would beg the question as to how one is seen as a far greater success, see preceding point.
Further, monsters U did better than the likes of tws for instance, hardly 'mediocre' unless you are now arguing that. WWZ performed solid, over preformed I believe was the world, still, if a hundred films open on the same day as a good movie, and they all go on to do solid; that none does gang busters doesn't change the fact that your movie didn't have a wide open weekend but rather faced off against 100 other solid movies of the same audience. Again another extreme example but necessary in the face of what you are suggesting here.

Lastly, one reason most movies that open as big as mos did cross 300 and mos fell just short, might actually be the reason folks here are asserting. Might not. Let's look at examples with similar circumstances....Guardians maybe?

Other films in the same genre have faced much worse competition and still managed better legs. The competition excuse only goes so far.

Again, curious what your examples are
(honest question).

 

[rashad]

So with Civil War absolutely crushing BvS in terms of trailer views, is anyone else having second thoughts about which of these movies will make more box office money? I originally thought BvS would beat out Civil War, but I'm not so sure anymore. Civil War got 60+ million views in one day, while BvS got 9-10 in two days.

Trailer views do not equate to box office performance. BvS also had two trailers before CW had it's first.

 

[rashad]

It won't make nearly as much as CW; that's for sure.

No way Furious 7 and JW will top AOU...Oh wait.

 

[Silver Surfer]

No way Furious 7 and JW will top AOU...Oh wait.

No way Guardians of the Galaxy will top MoS... Oh wait.

 

[rogbngp]

If BvS delivers in a big way then about 1.5 billion and possibly more. Close to 2 billion is not out of the question. It has to be hugely entertaining to the GA for that, though.

If it is somewhat disappointing in terms of story delivery but still has plenty of great action and its fair share of great moments, then a little over a billion.

 

[fake]

Not that I agree with this rule, but if this is your thinking and something you stand by, you must know it will be used against you regardless of your 'review' on said movie.

I'm also not sure I agree with any of this, for example if a film makes 6 billion in it's first week and earns only 7 total...7 Billion overrides this talk of multipliers. Moreover, didn't mos have as good a multiplier as AOU(honest question), if so, and that's a solid if, it would beg the question as to how one is seen as a far greater success, see preceding point.
Further, monsters U did better than the likes of tws for instance, hardly 'mediocre' unless you are now arguing that. WWZ performed solid, over preformed I believe was the world, still, if a hundred films open on the same day as a good movie, and they all go on to do solid; that none does gang busters doesn't change the fact that your movie didn't have a wide open weekend but rather faced off against 100 other solid movies of the same audience. Again another extreme example but necessary in the face of what you are suggesting here.

Lastly, one reason most movies that open as big as mos did cross 300 and mos fell just short, might actually be the reason folks here are asserting. Might not. Let's look at examples with similar circumstances....Guardians maybe?


Again, curious what your examples are
(honest question).

MoS had the same multiplier as IM3, Thor 2 and AOU actually. All of them are between 2.33 and 2.35, and Thor 2 had the holidays to boost it as well.

The issue wasn't the competition for MoS, if it was just Monsters U the next weekend and it earned 85-90M as it did, it wouldn't have mattered as much. The issue was that WWZ also overperformed that weekend. Those 2 movies between them were direct demo competition for MoS.

MoS was equally split between male-female and under/over 25 years old. Monsters U took the female and under 25 crowd, WWZ took the male and over 25 crowd. All of a sudden MoS lost its main demos to 150M worth of competition, and 25 wide releases followed in the next 5 weeks. I still feel, and have felt this since when the release date was announced, that MoS and Pacific Rim should have switched dates, MoS would have got the "last big movie of summer" legs which worked well for the TDK trilogy.

 

[ernesth100]

Well, factoring in Superman/Batman/Wonder Woman/Aquaman and Jesse Eisenberg as well as the majority of the fanboy community and GA. Stock sales adjusted for inflation, budget cuts and reshoots. The average age of the CBM watcher being between 14-38. And several other statistics. I can estimate somewhere between 900 mill and 6.5 Centillion in the BO.

 

[kedrell]

I'm also not sure I agree with any of this, for example if a film makes 6 billion in it's first week and earns only 7 total...7 Billion overrides this talk of multipliers. Moreover, didn't mos have as good a multiplier as AOU(honest question), if so, and that's a solid if, it would beg the question as to how one is seen as a far greater success, see preceding point.

Mos had a 2.26X which is kinda weak, even for a big opener like that. AoU had a 2.4X which ain't nothing amazing but it's standard and given the fact that it opened around $63m higher it makes the comparison even wider. You're right when you say the higher a film opens the less multipliers matter in terms of overall success however they are still our best barometer to judge WOM by and thus how a movie is received by the public at large(which is what we're really trying to measure here).

Further, monsters U did better than the likes of tws for instance, hardly 'mediocre' unless you are now arguing that. WWZ performed solid, over preformed I believe was the world, still, if a hundred films open on the same day as a good movie, and they all go on to do solid; that none does gang busters doesn't change the fact that your movie didn't have a wide open weekend but rather faced off against 100 other solid movies of the same audience. Again another extreme example but necessary in the face of what you are suggesting here.

Now in this context my statement of all 3 of them being mediocre basically is based on how much people talk about them anymore and in context to others of their own genres. Monsters U is a middle of the road Pixar movie that doesn't get mentioned much any more(I happen to have liked it but Finding Nemo, The Incredibles or one of the Toy Story movies it wasn't in terms of pop cultural staying power). Ditto WWZ, even though it like the other 3 was a B.O. success. Ditto MoS. We only hear more about it here because this site is all about superhero movies so of course it'll get brought up more in this context. But I don't hear anyone outside of this place(or others like it like CBM) talking about MoS at all. They've forgotten it, largely and that's a hallmark of a mediocre film. People still talk about TWS all over the place.

Lastly, one reason most movies that open as big as mos did cross 300 and mos fell just short, might actually be the reason folks here are asserting. Might not. Let's look at examples with similar circumstances....Guardians maybe?

Well you can take a sampling(if you want to do all that work) and see what the average multiplier is for films that open at a certain level and compare them to get an idea of that but I'm pretty sure already that MoS's will end up well below average for it's weight class.

Again, curious what your examples are
(honest question).

Just off the top of my head? CA:TFA definitely did, what with being squeezed between the final HP film and Cowboys vs. Aliens. Still managed a far better multiplier than MoS. Yes, it opened about half as big as MoS's opening(which would make it easier) but you can chalk that up to it having(at the time at least) a far smaller fanbase for the character.

 

[ernesth100]

In all honest I'm not expecting a dime under 800 mill. I do hope it achieves 1bill. I mean that'd be an amazing start for the DCEU(not REALLY a start since MoS came out first, but you get my point).

 

[Val_Zod]

It won't make nearly as much as CW; that's for sure.

True, it will make far more than CW; that's for sure.

 

[kedrell]

Ain't nothing sure.

 

[Silliminite]

In all honest I'm not expecting a dime under 800 mill. I do hope it achieves 1bill. I mean that'd be an amazing start for the DCEU(not REALLY a start since MoS came out first, but you get my point).

Agreed, 800 million is the base.

 

[Kanye West]

if this doesn't hit a billion a least, WB is going into panic mode.

 

[Marvin]

they are still our best barometer to judge WOM by and thus how a movie is received by the public at large(which is what we're really trying to measure here).

I think the best barometer is taking the full circumstance into account, not simply picking one thing and one thing regardless of everything else to boot. Also, 2.26 seems inflated tbh, how did you get that exactly?

Now in this context .....They've forgotten it, largely and that's a hallmark of a mediocre film. People still talk about TWS all over the place.

An interesting discussion to be sure but cultural relevance and things like that aren't actually the same discussion as the one on numbers hurting numbers. "2001 spaceO" didn't actually do all that well next to star wars but it's talked about...you see where I'm going with this.
Pixar has released like 16 movies and MU is like their 5th highest grosser, more importantly their 3rd highest opening and maybe their 3rd widest release, with a demo that one would imagine could have just as easily spent that weekend at superman(with the family)...Such things are what I'm talking about, not so much how much a film is talked about, moreover suggesting that because it's not talked about as much as the likes of incredibles that it's then mediocre... I'm hearing folks now argue about how no one talks about avatar anymore..you see where I'm going with this also on the issue of raw numbers. Like the dude above said, 150 mill of direct comp in it's second weekend. that doesn't happen often(if at all), and more in the subsequent weeks.

As for your example, forgive me but I thought you were going to mention other films(more than one that is), like you alluded to, in this genre. Secondly, CAtfa? I'll give it credit for opening up in hp's second week though hp was a true example of what front loaded looks like but CowboysAliens, are you kidding me. Again 150mill of direct and solid performing comp vs smurfs and cowboys? I mean WWZ alone pretty much put up the numbers those two films combined did. Alone. What's more, there is something to be said for your comp getting good buzz vs your comp getting buzz and how that influences walk ins.
-Now compare the two films(cap/mos) fourth weekends comp..
-then WB pulls it's own 3D screen for PRim..
-then in week 6, when films do that last legs crawl, for some reason cap pulls in twice as much (2 mill vs 1 mill) and I'm suppose to believe this has nothing to do with superior competition?
What mos would have done with the gotG spot or tws spot, I find myself now wondering.
I argue the film had maybe the fiercest comp spot a big film of this genre has ever seen.

Sorry but I for one am not so easy to disregard the role this all played. Either way, maybe thing will be different this time in terms of comp.

 

[jokesonm3]

This film could get the same RT score as Man of Steel and still cross a billion dollars with ease, it's got way too many factors supporting it:

- The sheer hype alone indicated by the trailer views.

- Its easter weekend opening freeing up folks who want to spend time with their families.

- weeks of no competition

- Aprils proven to be popular thanks to Furious 7.

- the chinese film market has vastly improved over the years

And finally its got all the necessary ingredients that any blockbuster needs to have good legs

- Two famous characters

- Tons of cool action scenes

- good chunk of humor

- suitable for all ages

BvS has to truly stink to get $800m as a base for the bho office, especially with 4 films crossing the billion dollar mark this year with a 5th one coming this year.

 

[jokesonm3]

It won't make nearly as much as CW; that's for sure.

Your right.....

It will fly past civil war, folk have been waiting to see Batman and Superman together on screen for decades by multiple generations.

Plus Civil War has some competition in may with Angry Birds the movie neighbours 2 & X-men apocalypse all in the same month while BvS has no competition for weeks.

So tell me how and why CW would somehow do better than BvS?

 

[Legendver2]

Your right.....

It will fly past civil war, folk have been waiting to see Batman and Superman together on screen for decades by multiple generations.

Plus Civil War has some competition in may with Angry Birds the movie neighbours 2 & X-men apocalypse all in the same month while BvS has no competition for weeks.

So tell me how and why CW would somehow do better than BvS?

Are you cereal?!

 

[Urich Leeds]

I have no idea. No prediction.

Right now, everything is 50/50 with this film.

I don't think it will perform worse than MOS, but I'm extremely unsure if this will hit the magical billion mark. WOM will be a key factor. If everything can come together in the film, and the critics get on board with it, it should have little earning 1 billion+.

Also, if it ends up being as phenomenal as we hope, and can draw huge crowds, this will certainly be able to match (if not outdo) Civil War's numbers.

That said, competing with Civil War isn't the goal, nor is it important. This film has to earn enough to justify their huge plans for the DC slate.

 

[jokesonm3]

Are you cereal?!

lol you know how many kids out there want to see a angry birds film rather than a superhero film? Tons, so thats a good chunk of the audience gone.

And the first Neighbours film not only made like $45m opening weekend but actually knocked the amazing spiderman 2 out of its No1 spot in its second week!

And these two films are coming out two weeks after CW, so thats some major competition there not include X-men apocalypse.

 

[jokesonm3]

I have no idea. No prediction.

Right now, everything is 50/50 with this film.

I don't think it will perform worse than MOS, but I'm extremely unsure if this will hit the magical billion mark. WOM will be a key factor. If everything can come together in the film, and the critics get on board with it, it should have little earning 1 billion+.

Also, if it ends up being as phenomenal as we hope, and can draw huge crowds, this will certainly be able to match (if not outdo) Civil War's numbers.

That said, competing with Civil War isn't the goal, nor is it important. This film has to earn enough to justify their huge plans for the DC slate.

Iron Man or not CW is still being marketed as a Captain America film, Bv has a higher shot at a villain than Civil War.

That said, competing with Civil War isn't the goal, nor is it important. This film has to earn enough to justify their huge plans for the DC slate.

I agree with this though.