Black Widow at the Box Office!

I saw that this is the most anticipated Hollywood film in China this year. Hopefully everything is back to normal by November. I can't wait to see how much it does over there. If it's really great I'm thinking 200million+
 
There's not going to be a "normal" when it comes to going back to the movies- at the very least not this year.
 
So, we just write off the rest of the movie year?

Pretty much. And we have to look for future change.

The question is going to become: What permanent changes will be made as a result of the pandemic and lockdown? So are seats in theaters going to be spaced farther apart? As a result will fewer non-tentpole films get space at theaters so more time and space can be devoted to the big earners? Will people go back? Will a home VOD simultaneous release become the norm? What will that cost? How will theater's react to it? Because it's easier for studios to distribute and they make more money per view, but theaters suffer.

This movie has a pretty high anticipation level. While not End Game level anticipation it has enough, so it may set the tone for what comes in the future. Disney is burning through capital right now though. They need this film to generate revenue. We all know Marvel films generate good returns. So it will be interesting to see what they do next. One thing is for certain though it will not go to Disney+ right away, as Disney+ is now. I would not think it out of the question though for Disney+ to add a module where you can rent for an additional fee in theater releases. That way they increase subscribers, and get a bigger chunk of revenue from rentals. Probably 100% since it's their platform. This will mean even if fewer "tickets" are sold they still get good profits, since normally they sacrifice 50% +/- to theaters for distribution. Theaters will suffer for it though and take it up as an issue.

No matter what happens though there will be a ton of people watching the results and reaction to this film, because it comes with a built in MCU following which is about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
 
Pretty much. And we have to look for future change.

The question is going to become: What permanent changes will be made as a result of the pandemic and lockdown? So are seats in theaters going to be spaced farther apart? As a result will fewer non-tentpole films get space at theaters so more time and space can be devoted to the big earners? Will people go back? Will a home VOD simultaneous release become the norm? What will that cost? How will theater's react to it? Because it's easier for studios to distribute and they make more money per view, but theaters suffer.

This movie has a pretty high anticipation level. While not End Game level anticipation it has enough, so it may set the tone for what comes in the future. Disney is burning through capital right now though. They need this film to generate revenue. We all know Marvel films generate good returns. So it will be interesting to see what they do next. One thing is for certain though it will not go to Disney+ right away, as Disney+ is now. I would not think it out of the question though for Disney+ to add a module where you can rent for an additional fee in theater releases. That way they increase subscribers, and get a bigger chunk of revenue from rentals. Probably 100% since it's their platform. This will mean even if fewer "tickets" are sold they still get good profits, since normally they sacrifice 50% +/- to theaters for distribution. Theaters will suffer for it though and take it up as an issue.

No matter what happens though there will be a ton of people watching the results and reaction to this film, because it comes with a built in MCU following which is about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
If Disney were to offer a rental option for its theatrical releases wouldnt theater owners be upset?
 
If Disney were to offer a rental option for its theatrical releases wouldnt theater owners be upset?

I'm sure they would be because they'll hurt them like I outlined. But if Disney determines this is the way forward they will do what's in their best interest.
 
All bets are off the table now- it's a whole new world. With AMC opening yesterday and no theaters still open in California, Jersey, and New York forget about big box office returns. If the movie opens in November that in of itself will be conisdered a success! The billion dolloar club will be a thing of the past till we have a cure.. IMO
 
I'd say every box office thread is total shot in the dark for the time being. There's just no way to accurately predict box office grosses with only a handful of countries fully opening their theaters.
 
Hoping this earns at least 100 million in North America.

Godzilla vs Kong earned 70 million in 2 weeks in America alone.
 
No idea, honestly. I'd like to think a Marvel movie could finally get people packed in cinemas again. F9 will be a litmus test a couple weeks before.

Keep in mind also that a chunk of box office change will be missing regardless as Canada doesn't look like they're opening theatres up anytime soon.
 
My current prediction for Black Widow is $180 million domestic and $500 million worldwide.
 
I don’t have much idea how numbers are going to work post COVID lockdowns. Hopefully after some time has passed we can be close to where we were.
 
With A Quiet Place II surpassing 100M domestic in just 3 weeks, I see 200M+ domestic for Widow a real possibility. Then I figure an international total of about 450M. I see 600M worldwide as a lock.
 
I hope Black Widow becomes a BIG hit in China.

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With A Quiet Place II surpassing 100M domestic in just 3 weeks, I see 200M+ domestic for Widow a real possibility. Then I figure an international total of about 450M. I see 600M worldwide as a lock.
That would be a great number in this environment. I really want this film to be a success.
 

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