Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Carp Man]

With $9,950,000 made on Monday for Transformers. It looks like right now that Transformers will hit $200 million after Friday.

Domestic Total as of Jul. 9, 2007: $165,333,052
Worldwide: $262,541,048

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=transformers06.htm

Isn't that great news Carp .

Yawn. Old news. I reported it about 6 hours ago. I expected it to be closer to 200 by tomorrows update. HP opens its all downhill. Down allmost 53 % today. The slide will continue. 27 last Tuesday. No way. Wed. 29. Really no way. HP takes over the box office. It's done great, but time for reality to set in.

 

[GreenKToo]

I'm starting to doubt if F4 2 will make W.W. what the first one did. 20 markets left yet, so it could.

 

[phillip phonix]

Domestic: $124,428,058 55.9%
+ Foreign: $98,014,572 44.1%

= Worldwide: $222,442,630

and it still has to come out in -

Austria 8/10/07 n/a n/a
Belgium and Luxembourg 8/8/07 n/a n/a
Bulgaria 8/10/07 n/a n/a
China 8/31/07 n/a n/a
Croatia 8/16/07 n/a n/a
Finland 8/10/07 n/a n/a
France and Algeria, Monaco, Morocco and Tunisia 8/8/07 n/a n/a
Germany 8/9/07 n/a n/a
Hungary 7/19/07 n/a n/a
Japan 9/22/07 n/a n/a
Lithuania 8/31/07 n/a n/a
Netherlands 7/26/07 n/a n/a
Norway 8/10/07 n/a n/a
South Korea 8/9/07 n/a n/a
Spain 8/10/07 n/a n/a
Sweden 8/17/07 n/a n/a
Turkey 8/17/07 n/a n/a
Vietnam 8/10/07 n/a n/a

 

[phillip phonix]

Also lets all remember it took the last film 175 days for it the make all of its money at the box office while FF2 only been out for for 25/6 days

 

[Antonello Blueberry]

Studios don´t like taking risks at all, 100-130 is a pretty big risk if you don´t feel very secure about the potential profitability. If FF2 is making considerably less than FF1, would you spend the same in a third?

Sure, if the total income is the same or close. You're still thinking only of theatrical revenues. You have to ask:
Did it make the same amount of money in merchandise, Tv rights sales and product placement?

 

[Dark Knight]

I love the way you think. t: We think alike.

It's also a fact that BB was a FAR better MOVIE than FF! LOL.....

Remember, greed and worrying about making money over making a quality film is not necessarily a good thing....

 

[Kelly]

It's also a fact that BB was a FAR better MOVIE than FF! LOL.....

Remember, greed and worrying about making money over making a quality film is not necessarily a good thing....

It's never a good thing....

 

[Advanced Dark]

Tue #'s in:

530,000 202 -50% 124,826,000

That's about it folks. Harry Potter is here.

 

[Malus]

It's also a fact that BB was a FAR better MOVIE than FF! LOL.....

No, that would be called an OPINION, not a fact.

Even though I agree with you, it's still not a fact.

 

[GreenKToo]

Tue #'s in:

530,000 202 -50% 124,826,000

That's about it folks. Harry Potter is here.

Do you think 130 mill is still possible??

 

[Kelly]

Do you think 130 mill is still possible??

If they pull it off screens as quickly as Spidey was pulled, then no.....it still has some major markets as far as International #'s....but as far as domestic...probably not....

 

[Advanced Dark]

It'll be around 126 after the weekend and by the following week probably 127.5 or so. Then 128.5. 130 is a stretch but possible.

 

[Carp Man]

Tuesday's #'s are in. FF 2 $ 124,428,058 dom. $ 222,442,530 WW. TF's $ 165,333,052 dom. $ 262,541,048 WW. Down 18 % from Monday. Down 70.7 % from last Tuesday. The slide has begun. Last Monday and Tuesday $ 36.7. This Monday and Tuesday $ 18 million. 50 % down with NO competition. What will the #'s look like when HP opens ? I said this film appeals to noone but fanboys.

 

[Carp Man]

Remember, greed and worrying about making money over making a quality film is not necessarily a good thing....

I don't care about money, or how the movie is made. Just continue to roll out the hits. t: Money is for bean counters. Movies are for the fans. I'm having a blast with the Marvel movies that keep rolling out. I feel sorry for those that have to wait 2 years for their fix.

 

[Carp Man]

July 11, 2007

FINAL TRACKING: 'Harry Potter 5' with a 5-day target of $128M and Fri-Sun of $76M!

by Steve Mason

Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) debuts today (Wednesday, 7/11) , and there is no question that HP5 will be a box office monster, but will it follow this summer’s sequel formula?

Let’s look at the five major 2007 summer sequels to calculate a formula to predict the success of the latest Potter. Please note that I’m not including Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) in this mix because it’s seven years since the last Die Hard, and it really isn’t playing like a sequel, especially with the under-25 crowd.

Spider-Man (Sony)
Spider-Man 2 - $88.1M opening – $373M cume
Spider-Man 3 - $151M opening – $334M cume
Opening weekend – up 42%; Total domestic – down 11%

Shrek - (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Shrek 2 - $108M opening – $441.2M cume
Shrek the Third - $21.6M opening – $316.1M cume
Opening weekend – up 11%; Total domestic – down 28%

Pirates of the Caribbean (Buena Vista)
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $135.6M opening – $423.3M cume
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $114.7M opening – $302.1M cume
Opening weekend – down 15%; Total domestic – down 29%

Ocean’s (Warner Bros)
Ocean’s Twelve - $39.1M opening – $125.5M cume
Ocean’s Thirteen - $36.1M opening - $109.5M cume
Opening weekend – down 8%; Total domestic – down 13%

Fantastic Four (Fox)
Fantastic Four - $56M opening – $154.6M cume
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - $58M opening - $124.4M cume
Opening weekend – up 4%; Total domestic – down 20%

There’s a clear pattern here. Three of the five sequels opened bigger than the previous installment, and the other two were down only slightly. Meanwhile, the cume is down drastically for all five. In fact, on average, this summer’s sequels have opening weekends 7% higher than the previous films in the franchise, but their total domestic take is down an average of 20%.

If we plug in those percentages for the first five days of Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix, it translates to an opening weekend of $128M and $255M total domestic. These numbers look about right to me. Here’s how I see HP5 penciling out on its opening five days.

Wednesday, 7/11 - $32.5M (including Tuesday midnight shows)
Thursday, 7/12 - $19.5M
Friday, 7/13 - $26.2M
Saturday, 7/14 - $27.9M
Sunday 7/15 - $21.9M
Opening 5-Day Gross - $128M
Friday thru Sunday - $76M

Those would be fantastic numbers, and this would easily become the best opening five days of any of the movies in the HP franchise.

5-Day Grosses of the Harry Potter films
2001 - Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $104.5M opening - $317.5M cume
2002 – Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets – $98.4M opening - $261.9M cume
2004 – Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban – $109.3M opening - $249.5M cume
2005 – Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $119.7M opening - $290M cume

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/07/final-tracking-.html

Note : I think those #'s are low. I think this movie will be a beast at the box office. 5 days ? 140 to 150 easy. If TF's can do 133 in 5 days. 4,285 theaters for HP.

 

[Pickle-El]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117968373.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

'Potter' rocks at box office
Midnight shows bring in $12 million

 

[Kelly]

I'm not surprised......I'll speculate that this little gem is going to rock the summer world......

 

[Hunter Rider]

Ive never understood the popularity of Potter but when i read those numbers i wish i'd written itt:

 

[Pickle-El]

JK Rowling had made over a billion dollars....and counting.

It's funny.....no franchise in history has amassed what Potter has done in its Domestic and WW numbers.....they have ALL made at least 780 million dollars, topping out at around 930 million.

That's astounding. It's funny, Carpy is all hung up on Harry Potter to put a hurtin on TF because of what happened to SS....yet, HP is made by the same that makes all the films he vows to hate and not watch.....because he's a Marvel guy. hehe.

I wonder if he knows he's rooting for the team he vowed to hate!

Carp, you're rooting for DC you fool! hehehe.

 

[Kelly]

Ive never understood the popularity of Potter but when i read those numbers i wish i'd written itt:

Oh hell yeah..........my god........a woman that could barely put food on the table not many years ago........unbelievable....

 

[Agent 194]

Carp Man,

You are a statistical machine. They need to move you into this line of work for the studios.

 

[Carp Man]

JK Rowling had made over a billion dollars....and counting.

It's funny.....no franchise in history has amassed what Potter has done in its Domestic and WW numbers.....they have ALL made at least 780 million dollars, topping out at around 930 million.

That's astounding. It's funny, Carpy is all hung up on Harry Potter to put a hurtin on TF because of what happened to SS....yet, HP is made by the same that makes all the films he vows to hate and not watch.....because he's a Marvel guy. hehe.

I wonder if he knows he's rooting for the team he vowed to hate!

Carp, you're rooting for DC you fool! hehehe.

The studio does not matter. As long as it works, I don't care what studio it is. If it halts TF's, I'm happy. 12 million ? I'm elated. I said 140 to 150 by Monday. It may go higher.

 

[Carp Man]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117968373.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

t: I'll be keeping track of what TF's does over the next 9 days.

 

[Hunter Rider]

You are very sad Carp

 

[Kelly]

The studio does not matter. As long as it works, I don't care what studio it is. If it halts TF's, I'm happy. 12 million ? I'm elated. I said 140 to 150 by Monday. It may go higher.

OMG, just stop............its becoming embarrassing.