Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Spade]

Doubtful. FOX will continue making superhero movies so long as properties have yet to be shown and they continue making money in any way off of the movies. I have no doubt they'll make an X-Men 4 just to rake in cash despite the quality of TLS- heck, they're making a Wolverine movie just for the sake of profiting off of a popular character. I put nothing past Twentieth Century.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Doubtful. FOX will continue making superhero movies so long as properties have yet to be shown and they continue making money in any way off of the movies. I have no doubt they'll make an X-Men 4 just to rake in cash despite the quality of TLS- heck, they're making a Wolverine movie just for the sake of profiting off of a popular character. I put nothing past Twentieth Century.

Wolverine was a need break from the X-Men series to freshen things up a bit and take a different course. I have a feeling they're gonna make the next X-Men film a sequel of sorts to the Magneto film. Like an origin X-Men film with Professor starting up the school. Recast from the ground up and go from there. Only problem is will they start it with Angel??? Keep in mind if they do this they'll probably need to re-cast and sign the actors up for more than just 3 films and find unknowns for most roles. Clearly Kelsey can remain as Beast as he's fully in costume and only the voice is really needed. They way Bryan singer started the franchise might limit how they can restart it unless they retell it more like the actual source which Singer strayed from.

 

[DieSmiling]

Doubtful. FOX will continue making superhero movies so long as properties have yet to be shown and they continue making money in any way off of the movies. I have no doubt they'll make an X-Men 4 just to rake in cash despite the quality of TLS- heck, they're making a Wolverine movie just for the sake of profiting off of a popular character. I put nothing past Twentieth Century.

The quality of TLS has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not they make another X-Men movie. TLS was the highest grossing movie for god's sake -- it's the cost that matters. Getting Jackman, Berry, McKellen, etc. all together then getting X-Men quality CGI is just expensive as hell.

 

[Malus]

this domestic dropoff pattern has to give Fox pause about making FF 3.

I have little doubt there will be an FF3.
Though perhaps we'll see a trimmed budget. Honestly, I don't see where half the money goes on most of these genre films.
They must be buying cameras and film from the same warehouse where the Pentagon buys hammers.

 

[Sardaukar]

I have little doubt there will be an FF3.
Though perhaps we'll see a trimmed budget. Honestly, I don't see where half the money goes on most of these genre films.
They must be buying cameras and film from the same warehouse where the Pentagon buys hammers.

Yeah, but these FF films already have trimmed budgets. This is FOX we're talking about, after all. They tend to keep things on the cheap. I mean, how much lower can they go and still maintain the visual quality (in terms of special FX) of the first one? If anything, sequels are supposed to raise the stakes on visuals, not lower them.

 

[Tony Stark]

Jeez, the collapse of FF 2's weekday numbers this week has been really bad. $ 287,315 on Thursday is a lousy launching pad for the weekend; it sets the stage for a collapse this weekend. We're probably looking at a 65-70% drop, which would be wretched for a film in its fifth weekend.

If there's a sequel it's going to be on the back of foreign box office, but this domestic dropoff pattern has to give Fox pause about making FF 3.

With the number of new films this is not suprising. Transformers having a 70% drop, means it's likely not to reach 300 million.

This is not a film problem it's a industry problem.

Other than Die Hard, Ratatouille, and Knocked up the big films are seeing a big collapse in their second weeks.

 

[GL's Light]

With the number of new films this is not suprising. Transformers having a 70% drop, means it's likely not to reach 300 million.

This is not a film problem it's a industry problem.

Other than Die Hard, Ratatouille, and Knocked up the big films are seeing a big collapse in their second weeks.

I don't think TF is going to have a 70% drop. Yes, a lot of the big films have had sizable drops in their second weekends, but they've gone on to stabilize in subsequent weekends. The problem for FF 2 is that it's been in an unrelenting freefall every weekend. If it drops by 65-70% in its fifth weekend, as looks likely, that'll be way above the average compared to other films this summer. FF 2 has had by far the worst dropoff pattern of any major film this summer to date. It's a Hulk-like drop.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think TF is going to have a 70% drop. Yes, a lot of the big films have had sizable drops in their second weekends, but they've gone on to stabilize in subsequent weekends. The problem for FF 2 is that it's been in an unrelenting freefall every weekend. If it drops by 65-70% in its fifth weekend, as looks likely, that'll be way above the average compared to other films this summer. FF 2 has had by far the worst dropoff pattern of any major film this summer to date. It's a Hulk-like drop.

Transformers did have a 70% drop on Wednesday.

 

[GL's Light]

Transformers did have a 70% drop on Wednesday.

Yes, I know (it dropped 75.9% compared to the previous Wednesday, 15.2% from the previous day) - I thought you were using that to project forward to the weekend. My mistake. But Wednesday to Wednesday drops aren't a yardstick for how a film is going to hold up, especially since its first Wednesday was only its second day on release, which exaggerated the day-to-day drop. I think it's going to have a second weekend drop of no more than 55%.

 

[Carp Man]

Yes, I know (it dropped 75.9% compared to the previous Wednesday, 15.2% from the previous day) - I thought you were using that to project forward to the weekend. My mistake. But Wednesday to Wednesday drops aren't a yardstick for how a film is going to hold up, especially since its first Wednesday was only its second day on release, which exaggerated the day-to-day drop. I think it's going to have a second weekend drop of no more than 55%.

I'll stick with 22 to 28. 60 to 70 % drop. 30 tops.

 

[Carp Man]

July 13, 2007

THE SCORECARD: 9 "expert" sources call for a robust $86.6M for 'Harry Potter'; 'Transformers' pegged at $35M

by Steve Mason

Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the movie-going public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.


Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me, and the rest of the box office "authorities," humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.

Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, July 13), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.

This week, we're posting the predictions of eight "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages (No predictions this week from Lee's Movie Info or Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo.) Everyone agrees that Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) will easily win the weekend, but the range is pretty wide. The average of the eight sources puts HP5 at $86.6M

Steve Mason, Fantasy Moguls
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $76M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $34M

World of KJ
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $72M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $33M

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $90M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M

Box Office Report
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $80M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M

Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $88.4M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $36.9M

Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $96.3M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $38.7M

Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $83.2M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $37M

Joshua Rich, Entertainment Weekly
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $99M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $36M

Box Office Psychics
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $95M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $30M

BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $86.6M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M

Note : Looks like it's 72 to 99 for HP. Make a prediction ? I did see 1 prediction for FF 2 2.2 million.

 

[Arkady Rossovich]

You listen to Carp???????? he puts his fin in his mouth on a daily basis.....

He seems to have general information,i remember his numbers when Ghost Rider was a failure.

Wow, Surfer hasn't even made it's budget back yet domestically. I wonder how plans of a sequel are going...

I dont think so.The fact that the numbers are so slow,is keeping Carp Man from saying the film is a dissapointment.He`s really shocked.

 

[Carp Man]

He seems to have general information,i remember his numbers when Ghost Rider was a failure.

Failure ? I think not. It made budget, and that is all it was supose to do. $ 228.5 WW, and $ 115.8 domestic, on a 110 Budget, ain't bad at all.

 

[Carp Man]

I dont think so.The fact that the numbers are so slow,is keeping Carp Man from saying the film is a dissapointment.He`s really shocked.

I'm not the only one who is shocked, but I'm not loosing any sleep over it.

 

[Advanced Dark]

The competition was just WAY too fierce. Release FF3 as a Holiday 09 or 2010 film like Night at the Museum. Keep the PG rating, throw in Mole Man and be the only action movie in town that's suitable for all.

 

[Mr. Socko]

I guess there are several markets that still haven't released it overseas because right now Overseas numbers are looking pathetic. With the first film, it made more overseas than it did domestic.

 

[Kelly]

I guess there are several markets that still haven't released it overseas because right now Overseas numbers are looking pathetic. With the first film, it made more overseas than it did domestic.

Yeah, theres 3 big ones yet to go, and about 12 others....on top of those...

 

[Carp Man]

Yeah, theres 3 big ones yet to go, and about 12 others....on top of those...

20 to go. The biggest markets for the 1st movie : Austraila $ 9.1, Brazil $ 8.1, France $ 16.3, Italy $ 12.3. Japan $ 9, Mexico $ 22, Spain $ 15.2, U.K. $ 22.5.

FF 2 in those markets : Austraila $ 6.5, Brazil $ 6, France opens 8-8, Italy $ 8.4, Japan opens 9-22, Mexico $ 14.8, Spain opens 8-10, U.K. $ 22.7.

 

[Agent 194]

I asked this the other day......what does anyone have to say about the next Bourne entry? Will it make money? I guess FF did what it was going to do way before this one comes out.


Hi Albafan,...it's slow around here these days, huh?

 

[Mr. Socko]

I'm not a big fan of the Bourne films. Personally, I believe people are getting tired of them just like the Oceans films.

 

[Tony Stark]

A bit off topic but, just got back from HP 4, and I have to say it's the best film of the summer by a long shot. It's a perfect 10/10, and even though alot is left out from the book, the movie stands on it's own. It is flawless really.

Every other movie I've seen this summer had some sort of problem, the biggest dissapointment for me being POTC III, but this film really is absolutely perfect and by far the cast delivers their best peformance of the series, highlighted by Daniel Radcliffe who really has become a great actor. (and BTW I was thinking if he can pull of an American accent, he could be the next Peter Parker. With his glasses and hair cut in this movie I thought he looked exactly the way Steve Ditko drew Peter)

Gary Oldman should get an Oscar nomination, he was that good.

 

[Carp Man]

July 13, 2007

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Biggest 'Harry' Ever! $26.5M Fri, $80M 3-Day and $142.6M 5-Day for 'Potter 5'; 'Transformers' w/$10.5M Fri and 2nd weekend of $34M; 'Captivity' bombs w/$400K Fri and $1.05M 3-day

by Steve Mason

Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) continued its strong run at the box office on Friday grabbing an estimated $26.5M, bringing its 3-day cume to just shy of $90M. That should put HP5 right at $80M for the traditional Fri thru Sun 3-day weekend, and it will give Order of the Phoenix the biggest 5-day opening in the history of the franchise.

Opening 5-Day Grosses for Harry Potter Films
1. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (2007) - $142.6M (projected)
2. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire (2005) - $119.7M [$290M cume]
3. Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) - $109.3M [$249.5M cume]
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) - $104.5M [$317.5M cume]
5. Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets (2002) - $98.4M [$261.9M cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $26.5M [$89.1M cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.5M [$197.5M cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $458,200 [$126M cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $80M [$142.6M cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $34M – down 52% [$220.9M cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $1.47M [$127M cume]

 

[Advanced Dark]

Damn Carpy I turned you onto that site and you just took over. I just want to see 130+ million. We're about 3 million away.

 

[tviceman]

I'll stick with 22 to 28. 60 to 70 % drop. 30 tops.

I just want to take a moment to laugh at your "Transformers has no legs, it's dead" predictions as it drops considerably less than what you were so sure it would do....


....


.... okay I'm done laughing. Would you like me to stop by again when it becomes obvious that Harry Potter will not beat Transformers domestically?

 

[Onlooker]

I'm no expert, but I don't think there's the slightest doubt that Harry Potter will beat Transformers domestically.