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Discussion in 'Webb's Spider-Man' started by spider-neil, Dec 31, 2012.
Simple question, do you think ASM2 will make more or less money than ASM?
Depends on the marketing and how good of a movie it actually is, I'd say. If Sony makes this thing look tantalizing enough, people will see it. There will always be a large audience for a Spider-man movie, it just depends on Sony delivering the goods and then making people want to see it.
The factors for me are;
1. Superhero burnout
2. Spidey burnout
3. How well ASM was recieved on DVD/Blu Ray
4. If there are genuine links with the Avengers
5. We are over the reboot origin hump
I think a lot of people were pleasantly surprised by TASM. There was little to no hype for the movie, yet it still made over $700 Million world-wide. It came out after the Avengers, and weeks before The Dark Knight Rises, both of which were the big movies of 2012.
I think TASM2 has a chance to make more money than the first movie. It has less competition, and the origin is over with.
This is something that could affect all CBMs.
I think ASM2 will make more money than ASM, they're over the main origin - still some bits to iron out but we're well into Peter as Spidey now.
Webb's comments of him being an expert with his powers fill me with further confidence there's going to be some really excellent stuff. He and Foxx have both said it's a great script.
We're building towards the death of Gwen Stacy storyline = more interest.
It's up against Captain America, X-Men and Guardians of the Galaxy. ASM was up against The Avengers - very big hype and the Dark Knight Rises.
I'd say it's up to Sony, Webb and his cast to deliver something special.
I think it has a good chance of reaching the Billion dollar mark.
I think it will make more money than ASM but not much more i.e. between 800m and 830m. The chance for Spidey to make a billion was SM3, any half decent movie would have blown away box office records. SM3 was a movie everyone wanted to see and most people did see it but I doubt it had many repeat viewings from the general audience and bad WOM would have stopped the people who were on the fence from seeing it. Avi Arad's greed in including venom did more harm than good, sure the movie made 900m but it should have BREEZED past a billion and would have it were a good movie.
If Sony wanted TAS-M to get as much as it could have, they should have picked the month that wasn't occupied with the big two CBMs of the year.
May - Avengers
June - TAS-M
July - TDKR
I have always thought that was the best way to go. Even with how much I wasn't a huge fan of the film, it is Spider-Man after all and the character is a money maker.
Waste of time releasing before May. Pointless releasing at Christmas (Hobbit).
That left May (the start of the blockbuster season) taken by Avengers and July and that was taken but TDKR they had no choice but to release it when they did. If Sony were really smart they would have released the movie in 2011 where the competition was Thor, Cap and X-Men...you see my point.
With all you said, I still don't get how June wasn't the perfect and ideal choice. It would have had four great weeks.
Oh right, you meant push the movie up by 2 weeks? I agree.
If you think ASM2 is going to have a 33% surge at the box office and break a billion you are smoking the Mary Jane. ASM1 with 3D didn't get close. ASM2 won't get close to $400 million US and it's not gonna go get $700 million overseas. A pipe dream.
At this point in time, things may change with trailers and reports, I guess $315 million domestic...still in the shadow of teh Raimizzzzzz.
Yeah, I think Sony's just too attached to that end-of-June/beginning-of-July spot to let it go. They basically have 2 Spidey slots: That one, and the 1st weekend in May. They've had great success in both, so when the May slot's taken (as it was by Marvel this year), they're just too afraid to try anything other than their back-up Spidey slot. Especially when June has developed a stigma of being less kind to the genre at the box office (SR, GL, BB, F4:RotSS) than the months surrounding it. A stigma I think is total BS (and I'm hoping MoS is about to shatter it), but numbers-wise, I can see Sony being afraid to move away from their "proven" slots.
But I agree, TASM could have benefited from having an extra week or 2 between its release and TDKR's.
TASM2 is back in the May sweet spot, but the power of that sweet spot might be undermined a bit by the April release of Cap 2 "officially" kicking off the summer, so I'm gonna predict that TASM2 makes more than TASM, but still falls short of a billion. It may very well cross that mark, though. I think a lot of that will depend on how much this installment looks like a new exciting story in the marketing, as TASM looking like a retread obviously dampened interest in it quite a bit. Electro could be a pretty visually eye-catching villain if done well, and one that doesn't resemble any of the Spidey villains put on film so far, so that could certainly help.
I reckon over 800 million for the sequel. TASM did very well. If they market it right, it will do very well indeed.
Then the movie would have been rushed.
If TASM made $752 million worldwide, then the sequel can probably make about the same if not more.
I don't think Captain America 2 will be much of a threat to be honest.
I certainly cannot wait for a teaser trailer for TASM2.
Had it been released in early to mid june, it could have very well made closer to, if not, a billion dollars.
Cap will do well but I don't think it will hurt ASM2.
The First Avenger made $368 million. Not bad, but not that impressive either. The Winter Soldier could make over $400 million probably.
Not directly, I agree. But the reason that May spot produces such killer opening weekends is supposedly because it traditionally hosts the first blockbuster of the summer, when audiences are hungry for their summer entertainment and a reprieve from the doldrums of the graveyard months. But if they've already gotten that reprieve and already had a taste of blockbuster at that point, that hunger won't be quite as strong.
Don't get me wrong, it will still be there, and I'm sure the movie will still do gangbusters; it just may not be quite as big as it would be if it was actually kicking off the summer movie season for people.
For the record, Winter Soldier will be much bigger than C:TFA, though. We're in a post-Avengers world now, so I'd expect all the MCU solo sequels to get a major boost from their first installments. Cap more than any of them, thanks to the heavy involvement of Black Widow and SHIELD. It'll probably be the closest thing people can get to another Avengers movie until, ya know, the actual next Avengers movie.
Cap 2 isn't going hurt AMS2 because its being released the beginning of April not the last week of it, Robopocalypse could be a wildcard.
I don't think opening in June would have helped at all, might have actually hurt it. ASM was boosted with July 4th weekend.
You forget that, unlike ASM, ASM2 won't take a big hit to its box office.
ASM took a huge loss due to TDKR coming out a mere two weeks after it did. It had no chance of beating out TDKR, no matter how hyped it was or how good it was.
ASM2 won't have that problem, at least, as big a problem.
I would say the only certain box office threats ASM2 has for about a span of 2 months are Transformers 4, which hits June 27.
Other films slated for release between those 2 span include Godzilla, Ninja Turtles, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, and How to Train Your Dragon, in that order. They are expected to be big films financially.
I don't think its out of the realm of possibility for ASM2 to do much better than ASM2.
Again, that's why I said not directly. Cap 2 isn't gonna overlap with TASM 2. That's obvious. But there's something to be said for being first out of the gate when it comes to the summer movie season. That's why the May Sweet Spot became the May Sweet Spot in the first place.
Good chances date will be shuffled but ASM2 has an advantage over most of the other releases in May since they aren't part of currently existing franchises. Or their potential is limited.
It had a 44% drop off the second weekend out (which is good). By the third weekend when TDKR came out, it wasn't making much anyways...$10ish million. Another $5-$10 million ain't gangbustin' the box office. So, TDKR didn't hurt it that much. Yeah it lost a little but it's not like it would have made $300+ million domestic. What hurt ASM the most is itself. It was a full on reboot off of the heels of a much loved critically and financially successful franchise that only received mediocre-okay reviews by critics and the audience. It was also released in 3D and it didn't beat any of the previous installments by nearly $100 million adjusted for inflation.
Anything is possible. Xenu could come down and take me back to his ship and have his way with me. It's not probable. It is possible for ASM2 to do much much better than ASM. Right now, it's not probable. It will do better, but at this point I don't see it doing better by much. I will say right now without a shadow of any doubt that it will NOT reach $1 billion WW and it will NOT pass $400 million domestic (at this current point in time. If Sony and Marvel reach a deal to mix movieverses then all bets are off). Anybody can bet me on that. You can ask Messiah and Ajendo for advice on such a situation.
Right now Spider-Man has no competition for 3 weeks. Barring the quality of the movie, $300 million domestic sounds like a lock.