Box Office Prediction (2006 Version)

[Retroman]

Raymond James Financial (financial service firm) have attempted to predict Ghost Rider's box office gross.

From RAYMONDJAMES.COM:

2005/2006 Assumptions
We understand the variability of Marvel’s model when it comes to Hollywood. As such, we approach out years conservatively and do not model all potential movies in any given year. For 2006, we have explicitly modeled two major releases: X-Men 3 and Ghost Rider. In its latest press release, Marvel has indicated a potential for four additional films in 2006 (Iron Man, Luke Cage, Punisher 2 and Deathlok). Should any of the films be released, this would represent upside to our estimates. We have also included a $5 million advance
payment for Spider-Man 3 in both 2005 and 2006. This is similar to the advances for the first two Spider-Man movies. Our box office estimates for X-Men 3 is $325 million worldwide (X-Men grossed $295 million and X2 grossed $406 million) and $150 million worldwide for Ghost Rider. In 2005, we forecast $300 million worldwide for Fantastic Four.

In addition to two movies in 2006, Marvel will release its first direct to video movie (The Avengers by Lions Gate) and the animated Fantastic Four TV show (26 episodes produced by Antefilms of France). The animated FF TV show is very important, in our opinion. For a movie such as the Hulk, the character had no media support in the year following the release of the movie. As such, sales of licensed consumer product sales fell dramatically. With an animated TV show to keep the Fantastic Four brand in front of consumers, we could anticipate a less dramatic decline in sales. TV content will be a tool to help build consumer productsales of Marvel brands in the future.

Source: http://www.raymondjames.com/pdfs/company/MVL031605c_0646.pdf

 

[BIGGUN]

hmmm.
interesting read there Retro...
only 150 mil is a low estimate considering that the predicted budget is at least 100 mil. Cage's last flick "National Treasure" did at least 300 mil worldwide....and it had a 100 mil budget as well. that was released under different curcumstances of course...more established director, time of year, ect.
150 mil doesnt even beat Daredevil's worldwide gross (179 mil)....and i know GR has a better chance to make more than DD.
we will see though..

 

[GLREBORN]

Because Mark Johnson is making it,

IT WILL BE A BOMB.

 

[Night]

Ok why would X3 make less then X2? And If Ghost Rider only makes 150 worldwide then that is a bomb!

 

[dk]

Ok why would X3 make less then X2? And If Ghost Rider only makes 150 worldwide then that is a bomb!

If any of these "predictions" are within $50 mil of the actual numbers, I'll eat my hat. Because you can't predict things like that, this far ahead of release, with any accuracy. You don't know what the story will be, what the trailer looks like - in the case of X3, we don't even know everyone who's starring in the film yet! Jesus, I need to start up a financial services firm and specialize in offering wild and inaccurate box office predictions to movie studios for big cash.

The ONE thing I agree with is that Marvel dropped the ball by not putting together a Hulk cartoon, or some other way of keeping the character out there after the film ran its course. Merchandising was great up to and after the release of the movie, but there was nothing to sustain interest beyond that.

Hey - I'll offer my own, completely-as-valid predictions. Let's see who's more accurate, shall we? How about $200 mil worldwide for GHOST RIDER, $450 mil worldwide for X3, and $275 mil worldwide for FANTASTIC FOUR?

 

[BIGGUN]

I agree w/ DK on this....200 mil sounds about right.
it almost sounds like this guy didnt take into account the budget and a few other factors into his estimate. he may still be going by that old initial production amount of 50 mil that was announced a long time ago.

 

[Sabretooth]

I just hope it makes enough money to give us a sequel,and also enough to convince Fox for Daredevil 2.

 

[FlameHead]

150 mill doesn't sound right at all... not at all. Maybe Domestically, but not worldwide. Whoever Raymond James is... he's not very bright.

Unless he's right and then I'll be sad... very sad.

 

[FlameHead]

It'll be almost 2 years since this topic has been talked about when the movie is released. It's just as well to bump in with just over a year to go.

How much does everyone now think it's going to make?

Not that it really matters...

 

[Super_Ludacris]

2007 is insane

 

[GMONEY]

It Would Be Interesting If It Broke Spiderman's Record!!! It'll Be Tough Though

 

[FlameHead]

Near Impossible.

 

[BIGGUN]

Near Impossible.

yeah...supes has just been around much longer than GR and has a much bigger fan base. the media will push supes likes its the cure to cancer....you probably wont be able to go anywhere w/out seeing that big read "S".
this is one of Warners biggest comic properties so they are really going to go all on out on advertisements
also supes is much more family oriented than GR...that alone will mean big $$ at the box office.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Opening weekend should be near 55-65 million for Ghost Rider and with the Holiday and all. If it's solid it should gross 2.5-3 times that when the run is over dometic. Germany it should be huge but overseas #'s depend on how they take this character.

 

[This I.........]

not even this movie is gonna bomb at the box office even worst then catwoman and electra electras first preview looked way way better then this one ghost rider is womp womp plus have u seen the pics of the villains come on this movie should be direct 2 dvd

 

[Advanced Dark]

not even this movie is gonna bomb at the box office even worst then catwoman and electra electras first preview looked way way better then this one ghost rider is womp womp plus have u seen the pics of the villains come on this movie should be direct 2 dvd

Troll much? Yeah a 120 million dollar direct to DVD movie. Sony should consider your option based on your viewing of stills prior to post production. LMFAO

 

[Super_Ludacris]

It Would Be Interesting If It Broke Spiderman's Record!!! It'll Be Tough Though

It's just not happening

 

[Mr Nick]

Hmm. I don't think I can make a prediction until I've seen more of the movie and the marketing starts to roll.

 

[Mr. Socko]

I doubt it'll make as much as X3, and lets not even compare it to Superman Returns. I see Returns being over-rated and the talk of the town, alot like Batman '89 was. Maybe GR will make a little over 200 million.

I still don't understand why Daredevil did so terrible

But GR will own

 

[RedIsNotBlue]

Considering the slump that the box office is in I can say this. I honestly do not have a prediction. I have hopes but no actual idea around how much it will make. I mean King Kong was expected to have Titanic numbers (and it should have) but it only turned out to be a moderate success at the box office. And considering that this movie has switched dates around so much its even harder to gauge.

Going by how the box office is going I will go ahead and try to make a guess. 230 million worldwide and 40-50 million on dvd.

 

[casketmouth]

Because Mark Johnson is making it,

IT WILL BE A BOMB.

Not THE bomb, but A bomb....correct..this guy screwed up daredevil. why's he trynna direct again?! Why did they hire him again are they stupid? He didn't even bring in big bucks with DD, and DD is more popular than Ghost rider which the cg looks like crap to start with.

 

[casketmouth]

I doubt it'll make as much as X3, and lets not even compare it to Superman Returns. I see Returns being over-rated and the talk of the town, alot like Batman '89 was. Maybe GR will make a little over 200 million.

I still don't understand why Daredevil did so terrible

But GR will own

This won't even make as much as Fantastic Four...it's gonna suck, daredevil did very badly so what makes people think This moron will fix his mistakes when he didn't fix them the first time.

 

[screenamesuck]

I really hope most of you are kidding. If you think the visuals suck so far from what we've seen, then you need your eye's checked. I never saw the director's cut of Daredevil, but I here nothing but good things about it, so lets give this DD sucked crap a rest already.

I don't really care what everyone else says, i've been a fan of Ghost Rider since I was a little boy, so this is a dream come true for me. Even if nobody else likes it I will still love it from the very first scene to the very last name in the credits.

 

[Mr Nick]

Not THE bomb, but A bomb....correct..this guy screwed up daredevil. why's he trynna direct again?! Why did they hire him again are they stupid? He didn't even bring in big bucks with DD, and DD is more popular than Ghost rider which the cg looks like crap to start with.

This is an old chestnut, but Mark Steven Johnson didn't screw up Daredevil; Fox did. They made him chop up his faithful, meaty movie into a skeletal, shallow action flick. Thank God for the Director's Cut.

 

[RedIsNotBlue]

It is common knowledge that FOX likes to have movies their way instead of the director's way. Well at least its common knowledge to me.