Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[TigerClaw]

Box Office Mojo has posted an article containing the Box Office Predictions to several of the big Summer Movies for 2014, Which includes TMNT.
http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8 ) : With the potential to add to already impressive toy sales, it makes financial sense to bring the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles back to the big screen. The first teaser left something to be desired, though, and the mid-August release date is tricky (with Guardians a week before, can this really break out?). It's possible that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles performs on par with 2009 toy adaptation G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra ($150.2 million), but for now we're betting lower on it. (Domestic: $130 million, Foreign: $255 million)

 

[Pondslider]

I'm surprised the foreign box office prediction is so high. Maybe things have changed, but in the past TMNT movies didn't do nearly that well overseas. The first movie was made at the height of the franchise's popularity and it made about half of the domestic box office in foreign markets. Things have changed since then with China being a much bigger market, but are the Turtles really that much more popular now that's it's going to almost double the domestic take?

I also think it's interesting that they think it's going to do worse than G.I. Joe did domestically but somehow way better than G.I. Joe did internationally. Maybe they think some kind of anti-American sentiment hurt G.I. Joe overseas? I'm far from an expert, but I'm skeptical of this prediction.

 

[Marvin]

Curious how the shredder situation will affect foreign numbers. On one end, it reduces the asian presence in the film, on the other end, it reduces the presence of asian villainy in the film.

I do think asian markets enjoy good hand to hand choreography, and I'm also certain Bay's name is a growing fixture there.

I also think Alot of Ray's predictions are off the mark this year. We'll see.

 

[Pondslider]

it reduces the presence of asian villainy in the film.

I'm almost 100% sure that's the reason they cast a white guy.

 

[Comics N' Toons]

I'm almost 100% sure that's the reason they cast a white guy.

the lack of Asian villainy may be due to hightened tensions between the U.S. and China. Movie studios will almost always sacrifice source material for a perceived political correctness.

 

[xwolverine2]

i think this movie will bomb... it looks too expensive for a property that hasn't proven itself a big money maker.. not to mention the extremely limited advertising and negative reactions.

Even the trailers so far have been rather dry...

 

[Marvin]

i think this movie will bomb... it looks too expensive for a property that hasn't proven itself a big money maker.. not to mention the extremely limited advertising and negative reactions.

Even the trailers so far have been rather dry...

How expensive does it look?

 

[harryoscop]

i think this movie will bomb... it looks too expensive for a property that hasn't proven itself a big money maker.. not to mention the extremely limited advertising and negative reactions.

Even the trailers so far have been rather dry...

It's doesn't look that expensive

 

[harryoscop]

I just hope it makes enough for a sequel imo TMNT has a lot of sequel potentiel

 

[harryoscop]

Like casey jones. baxter stockman. the rat king.utroms.slash. bebop and rocksteady.Technodrome. imo lots of sequel potential

 

[Klank]

I just hope it makes enough for a sequel imo TMNT has a lot of sequel potentiel

Personally I'm iffy on the idea of this movie getting a sequel.

A good example to highlight how I feel is that I wasn't enamored with Amazing Spider-Man but I saw that there were things that could be improved or altered in sequel that could make a truly great Spider-Man movie. I think they actually did a lot to "fix" stuff in the sequel - it still missed the mark for me somewhat but it was vast improvement over the first.

I don't really see the room for improvement. The designs could be tweaked (given they'll have new toys to sell I'm positive of it) but they are not going to alter them too much.

Eric Sachs is still going to be the Shredder...unless they make it that there's a "real" Shredder that will be the main villain of the sequels which I find doubtful given Fichtner's confidence he'll be around for further films in the series. Neither option is really all that pallettable to me anyway.

The general tone is going to remain the same and there's no sign that anyone involved will treat the franchise with any more respect than they currently are doing.

For the general public however I think it has a limited shelf life. TMNT has many villains but none that seem on par in importance to Shredder thanks to the trope of 80s saturday morning cartoons to have an omnipresent baddie and most of the other villains are subservient to him or end up connected to him in some way and it doesn't look like that's changing in this series which I think limits us storywise. I can forsee that Shredder tries to take over the city but with a growing roster of henchmen each movie.

 

[harryoscop]

^ well to be honest i don't want sachs to stay till let's say TMNT 3. that would be very boring i know it's highly possible since he's signed on for 2 more. but oh well. regarding the designs they can always change their clothes/accesorys no problem just their faces are here to stay but maybe they can tweak them slightly. i have no problem with the tone i like what i'v seen lol. i don't see anything that points to them disrespecting the franchise it's not that diffrent from what we've seen in the past

 

[NinjaTurtleFan]

I'm with Klank.

With a lack of interest and hardcore marketing plus there's fans like me who aren't really impressed by this reboot and those who are gung-ho about seeing it, this film could go either way: a massive success or a titanic flop.

I know myself and my friends who are also big Turtles fans aren't happy with all the changes made and have been lukewarm to this reboot film since the very beginning when Michael Bay had a 'insert foot in mouth'-fiasco. Then when the trailer came out and seeing William Fichtner as Shredder appeared, they completely just had enough, and will more than likely pirate the film or wait till Netflix to see how it is; good or bad. I will be doing the same.

This movie is like a cheating girlfriend: you want to love her but there's just too much damage that she's done that you're so fed up that you end up telling her, "No, I don't want you anymore."

 

[harryoscop]

^ I totally understand where you're coming from lol. what you guys said made a lot of sense. but it's not every day you get a live action TMNT Film ya know. i totally understand

 

[Comics N' Toons]

I'm with Klank.

With a lack of interest and hardcore marketing plus there's fans like me who aren't really impressed by this reboot and those who are gung-ho about seeing it, this film could go either way: a massive success or a titanic flop.

I know myself and my friends who are also big Turtles fans aren't happy with all the changes made and have been lukewarm to this reboot film since the very beginning when Michael Bay had a 'insert foot in mouth'-fiasco. Then when the trailer came out and seeing William Fichtner as Shredder appeared, they completely just had enough, and will more than likely pirate the film or wait till Netflix to see how it is; good or bad. I will be doing the same.

This movie is like a cheating girlfriend: you want to love her but there's just too much damage that she's done that you're so fed up that you end up telling her, "No, I don't want you anymore."

I actually think that because the film has semi-negative press and or fan reaction as well as the fact that the marketing is off means this film will be mediocre at the box office. It is TMNT and I'm sure the hardcore fans will put their butts in theater seats, but considering other films coming out this year, competition MAY be feirce, so I don't see this film doing poorly, but I don't see it generating numbers big enough for a sequel. If it does, I will be surprised.

 

[harryoscop]

^ i still think kids will flock to see TMNT On the big screen hopefully. it's my most anticipated movie besides GOTG

 

[harryoscop]

I'm with Klank.

With a lack of interest and hardcore marketing plus there's fans like me who aren't really impressed by this reboot and those who are gung-ho about seeing it, this film could go either way: a massive success or a titanic flop.

I know myself and my friends who are also big Turtles fans aren't happy with all the changes made and have been lukewarm to this reboot film since the very beginning when Michael Bay had a 'insert foot in mouth'-fiasco. Then when the trailer came out and seeing William Fichtner as Shredder appeared,

I think shredders race changed because of asian markets banning movies with asian villains

 

[harryoscop]

i'm pretty sure the reason they have lips is so they can Pronounce Words (1990 movie for example) so it makes sense for them to have lips

 

[warhorse78]

i'm pretty sure the reason they have lips is so they can Pronounce Words (1990 movie for example) so it makes sense for them to have lips

That's the most stupidest reason I have ever seen. There is no reason, they are just messing with the looks for the sake of messing with them. Groot and Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy don't have lips, and they talk and emote emotion just fine.

There will be a curiosity factor opening weekend, maybe we might see 30 or 40 OW at best, but I'm pretty sure the public is going to shun the new look, and the movie will drop hard core in the following week. This movie will be lucky to crack 100 million domestic. I don't know how well the TMNT is known and liked OS, but I don't see no more than 170 OS BO. This movie will barely break even.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

38 m OW
105 m DOM
195 m OS

300 m WW

Enough for a sequel thanks to toy sales.

 

[Marvin]

That's the most stupidest reason I have ever seen. There is no reason, they are just messing with the looks for the sake of messing with them. Groot and Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy don't have lips, and they talk and emote emotion just fine.

There will be a curiosity factor opening weekend, maybe we might see 30 or 40 OW at best, but I'm pretty sure the public is going to shun the new look, and the movie will drop hard core in the following week. This movie will be lucky to crack 100 million domestic. I don't know how well the TMNT is known and liked OS, but I don't see no more than 170 OS BO. This movie will barely break even.

Actually it's more about lip snyc and lack of beaks if anything. Getting beaks to do mouth shapes(talking or other wise) in live action is rarely executed well(if at all imo).

As for them 'messing with the design for the sake of it'. I'd imagine the seasoned group of ILM folks have their reasons. Though I doubt fans will be convinced of that...at this stage anyways.

Capturing a human performance with motion capture seems alot more viable with these designs than it does with the 90's stuff. Not so different than Apes actually.

As for Groot. He doesn't have a beak firstly. Secondly he actually does have lips. Thirdly, his face actually looks like a human missing a nose imo.

 

[harryoscop]

I Could see guardians making Some good bucks but beating TMNT. No. especially since guardians is unknown all it has going for it is. 1 the marvel logo, 2 rocket and groot which will attract kids, 3 marvel logo, TMNT Got this

 

[harryoscop]

Actually it's more about lip snyc and lack of beaks if anything. Getting beaks to do mouth shapes(talking or other wise) in live action is rarely executed well(if at all imo).

As for them 'messing with the design for the sake of it'. I'd imagine the seasoned group of ILM folks have their reasons. Though I doubt fans will be convinced of that...at this stage anyways.

Capturing a human performance with motion capture seems alot more viable with these designs than it does with the 90's stuff. Not so different than Apes actually.

As for Groot. He doesn't have a beak firstly. Secondly he actually does have lips. Thirdly, his face actually looks like a human missing a nose imo.

This!

 

[harryoscop]

Some people just want TMNT to fail because they want guardians to win august.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

I'm gonna say between 350-400 million WW.