Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Flint Marko]

My biggest gripe with GotG(and I liked it just fine, BTW) is the same thing that's always kept me from giving a **** about Star Wars or Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica: I just don't relate to outer space properties well. Never have and I doubt I ever will. It's too alien an environment/setting IMO and that's a key aspect for me getting immersed and caring about the story I'm watching. At least GotG has those loose connections to the rest of the MCU(which I adore) so that helps it a bit. But the odds are those movies will never be my top favorites.

We're in the same boat. I'm a big fan of Guardians (not my favorite MCU property), but I don't relate to any other franchise dealing with outer space.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The Avengers was Marvel Studio's biggest game changer.

After that no MCU film made less than 500 m WW. The franchise officially became a pop culture phenomenon overnight.

Of course but Avengers was expected to be huge with the big guns teaming up (with culturally iconic figures like Hulk and Cap). Guardians was pretty much an unknown quantity and even many comic fans weren't too familiar with the comic/characters. Then it's released and makes a bigger pop culture impact then Spider-Man, Cap and the X-Men. Avengers created great momentum for the studio, but Guardians took it and ran with it. The film was a breath of fresh air for many people who were getting weary of the more traditional capes and mask superhero fare.

 

[Mike Murdock]

I think it called to life the idea that Marvel can make superhero movies of different genres. I mean, those who thought about it critically could probably say the same about The Winter Soldier, but I suspect most people didn't think that way.

 

[Flint Marko]

The Avengers put Marvel on the map, and they've since upped their game with TWS, Guardians, and Ant-man. All three of those movies proved they're almost unstoppable at this point.

I agree. I liked AoU better than any other phase 2 MCU film with the lone exception of TWS(I give them both a tie, basically). Those 2 are the only phase 2 films that I thought were genuinely great(meaning I gave at least a 9/10 to them). After that I'd say Ant-Man was the next best phase 2 films with IM3 and GotG tied behind that and then Thor2 as the weakest of phase 2.

Out of their 12 movies I'd say 5 of them are genuinely great movies(both Cap films, both Avengers films and IM1). The rest range from decently good(TIH, TtDW) to really good(Ant-Man, IM2).

We agree almost entirely.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Domestic continues to edge toward 180 with an estimated $179,525,073 after this weekend. It needs about $360k to beat Wolverine, assuming the estimate holds.

With China done WW stands at $517,425,073.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I think it called to life the idea that Marvel can make superhero movies of different genres. I mean, those who thought about it critically could probably say the same about The Winter Soldier, but I suspect most people didn't think that way.

Well whatever they thought genre-wise, it was clear they recognized the shift in tone from CA:TFA.

The Avengers put Marvel on the map, and they've since upped their game with TWS, Guardians, and Ant-man. All three of those movies proved they're almost unstoppable at this point.

I'd still rank Avengers as my favorite film (favorite CBM overall) with TWS and Guardians just a hair behind. Love all three and can't get enough. I'd put IM1 and Ant-Man next on the list. Excellent & entertaining films as well. I also love the Indiana Jones-vibe of The First Avenger.

It will be interesting to see what the studio can achieve going forward with Feige no longer tied to Ike and his little cabal...He's got SERIOUS competition now with Marvel TV and Netflix. Some people won't view it that way but I do.

 

[Vincanws]

ANT-MAN earned est $1.0M this weekend. China's total stands at $105.2M.
Sweet!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Domestic continues to edge toward 180 with an estimated $179,525,073 after this weekend. It needs about $360k to beat Wolverine, assuming the estimate holds.

With China done WW stands at $517,425,073.

Thank you, China! You got us pass 500 m before calling it quits.

 

[kedrell]

Another $2.575m and it's an even 4X of the budget.

 

[Spiderdevil]

My biggest gripe with GotG(and I liked it just fine, BTW) is the same thing that's always kept me from giving a **** about Star Wars or Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica: I just don't relate to outer space properties well. Never have and I doubt I ever will. It's too alien an environment/setting IMO and that's a key aspect for me getting immersed and caring about the story I'm watching. At least GotG has those loose connections to the rest of the MCU(which I adore) so that helps it a bit. But the odds are those movies will never be my top favorites.

I am the same, can't tolerate outerspace adventures like Trek or Wars, even fantasy movies like LOTR and Harry Potter are unbearable to me, they have too alien an environment for me to get immersed

But I liked GoGT, particularly how Fox were playing hard ball for the F4 rights and Marvel told them to piss off and created a proxy for F4 which turned out to be way cooler

They are doing the same with Inhumans as a replacement for X-men

 

[kedrell]

The setting in stuff like LotR/Hobbit doesn't bother me. It still largely mimics Earth type environments with just the right amount of otherworldly settings(Moria, Mordor, Erebor) to punctuate the rest and give me what I say amounts to basically 'Earth plus'. Harry Potter I didn't like because all the protagonists were juveniles, but that's another issue altogether. But to me outer space being such an alien environment that human beings were never meant to be in and in which we can't survive for even a few seconds...it's very off putting to me. Now you might say then so are submarine movies like Hunt for Red October and such(which I love) but those are far more reality based movies and even then they often will cut to things happening elsewhere(and that elsewhere is always something on Earth).

I agree that I like how Marvel gets around FOX holding the rights to certain IP's of theirs.

 

[chamber-music]

GoT, LotR and Hobbit are very dark ages/medieval Europe.

Harry Potter is nineties England with a few magical tweaks.

The fantasy and science fiction stuff that are most popular usually resembles either our contemporary or historical world.

I do get what you guys mean about too weird alien or fantasy stuff being a turn off though.

When I watch some science fiction or fantasy that starts talking about the weird named aliens or some two thousand year old mythology featuring unpronounceable fantasy creatures my eyes glaze over as well.

 

[kedrell]

It took me a while to get used to the unusual names in LOTR & GoT but eventually it sunk in and now it's easy for me. But that's all because they had to be good enough to justify the effort put in to learn them in the first place. Most fantasy crap isn't worth such effort, IMO.

 

[InCali]

Fair enough, I just wanted to point out the impact that Guardians made across the board. Objectively, it's definitely one of Marvel Studios greatest achievements (quality + unexpected impact), possibly it's greatest.

GotG was probably my favorite MCU movie. I LOVE that outer space stuff. The thing I liked about it was that it was just a flat out FUN movie to watch. Of course, it also helped getting Crapformers and TASM2 out of my system so I'm prolly a little bit biased. My least favorite??? Those #@$^%& AMC/Badlands Ads that I'm spending every ten seconds closing......served its purpose, I suppose.....I know the name.

MCU box office numbers are really the gold standard right now. Every movie seems to do at least "close" to blockbuster numbers. I hope it continues with Dr. Strange, CM, BP, Inhumans, etc. We could have a really cool looking, new Avengers team......

 

[InCali]

Of course but Avengers was expected to be huge with the big guns teaming up (with culturally iconic figures like Hulk and Cap). Guardians was pretty much an unknown quantity and even many comic fans weren't too familiar with the comic/characters. Then it's released and makes a bigger pop culture impact then Spider-Man, Cap and the X-Men. Avengers created great momentum for the studio, but Guardians took it and ran with it. The film was a breath of fresh air for many people who were getting weary of the more traditional capes and mask superhero fare.

The marketing/trailers for GotG were just brilliant. The soundtrack also really pulled people in. I went from to in a very short period of time.

The marketing for Badlands leaves much to be desired IMO.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

GotG was probably my favorite MCU movie. I LOVE that outer space stuff. The thing I liked about it was that it was just a flat out FUN movie to watch. Of course, it also helped getting Crapformers and TASM2 out of my system so I'm prolly a little bit biased. My least favorite??? Those #@$^%& AMC/Badlands Ads that I'm spending every ten seconds closing......served its purpose, I suppose.....I know the name.

MCU box office numbers are really the gold standard right now. Every movie seems to do at least "close" to blockbuster numbers. I hope it continues with Dr. Strange, CM, BP, Inhumans, etc. We could have a really cool looking, new Avengers team......

I love Guardians. Direction-wise, it's probably the most elegant of all the MCU films (arguably the funniest as well). The Winter Solder is the most kinetic with the greatest action sequences to date. The Avengers was the most transcendent. Possibly the greatest theater experience I've had with a packed house.

 

[InCali]

I love Guardians. Direction-wise, it's probably the most elegant of all the MCU films (arguably the funniest as well). The Winter Solder is the most kinetic with the greatest action sequences to date. The Avengers was the most transcendent. Possibly the greatest theater experience I've had with a packed house.

Terrific cinematography also. Off the top of my head, I think it was the best MCU movie in that department too. Just very easy on the eyes in general.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Estimated domestic take up to $179,789,610 this weekend. That puts it about $97k shy of Wolverine.

 

[Docker2.0]

You think this thing will make $180M? It seems to be going at a Betty White pace.

 

[InCali]

You think this thing will make $180M? It seems to be going at a Betty White pace.

Hey, hey, hey....don't you go railing on Betty White. She's one of my idols. If Docker can keep up a Betty White pace, my hat will be off to you.

A funny quote from her about growing "balls".

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/424652.Betty_White

Hoping for 180M and puttin' a whoopin' on Wolfie.

 

[kedrell]

Doesn't it hit home media on the 17th? That's 2 days. I don't see $97k in 2 days at this pace, much less the $211k needed to make it to $180m.

 

[Vartha]

yeah, unless it stays on 2nd run screens I really doubt it'll do that

 

[Vartha]

but the dvd/bluray release is Dec 8th. so MAYBE it can make it by then with 2nd run theaters

 

[InCali]

Doesn't it hit home media on the 17th? That's 2 days. I don't see $97k in 2 days at this pace, much less the $211k needed to make it to $180m.

I doubt it also. The bottom line is that it was a really good effort and did very well at the box office and had very good legs. Sometimes we get so involved with round numbers that we forget that $179+M is a very respectable domestic box office number; as is 500+ M WW.

 

[Lilbaz]

I doubt it also. The bottom line is that it was a really good effort and did very well at the box office and had very good legs. Sometimes we get so involved with round numbers that we forget that $179+M is a very respectable domestic box office number; as is 500+ M WW.

The bottom line is that it did well enough to get a sequel and also encourage them to try more risks in future.