Box Office Predictions

[Docker2.0]

That's what I think Ant-Man will do - box office numbers similar to what the two Thor movies did. Thinking Ant-Man could make around $175 - 210 million in North America is pretty realistic.

If it does, that's great. But I do wonder how it will tie in with the Avengers.

 

[SuperSanchez]

As long as it has the MARVEL logo on it, its bound to make a **** ton. Not only that but also the originality of the character, something we haven't seen before!

 

[fixxxer]

Two main factors to keep in mind here:

* It's a new property. Remember, the cast will not be featured in A:AOU. So, while it will undoubtedly see an "Avengers boost", it might not be as pronounced as in the case of IM3 or T:TDW or CA:TWS.

* It simply doesn't have as much cultural cache as some of Marvel's other properties. While one could cite the previous point and argue that GOTG was in the same boat, the GA almost uniformly found that property "cool" as soon as the first trailer hit. They're not quite there with Ant-Man yet.

A second trailer will be extremely important to ratchet up the GA's currently somewhat lukewarm excitement level up a couple of notches. Also extremely important, more so than any other Marvel franchise might be the WOM and critical reception.

I think Marvel will, however, ultimately deliver a good movie and will create more buzz going forward. I like the concept of superhero legacies, etc., I like the cast, I trust Marvel's creative vision and I trust the Marvel marketing machine.

I think Marvel's calculus would be as follows:
$350 mill: We messed up. Let's learn from this and move forward.
$400 mill: We didn't necessarily "mess up", but this is a slight disappointment none the less.
$450 mill: Ok. No celebrations, but we can live with this.
$500 mill: Good. This is a positive result. We can possibly start talking sequel now.
$550 mill: Good ol' Marvel magic.
$600+ mill: Muuuaaahaha. Four words: Squirrel Girl... sex comedy. We're green lighting this just to see how far we can take this.

 

[Dyson]

I think Marvel's calculus would be as follows:
$350 mill: We messed up. Let's learn from this and move forward.
$400 mill: We didn't necessarily "mess up", but this is a slight disappointment none the less.
$450 mill: Ok. No celebrations, but we can live with this.
$500 mill: Good. This is a positive result. We can possibly start talking sequel now.
$550 mill: Good ol' Marvel magic.
$600+ mill: Muuuaaahaha. Four words: Squirrel Girl... sex comedy. We're green lighting this just to see how far we can take this.

For "Ant-Man", I'm feeling the film will end up between $450 - 550 million worldwide. So... A solid hit for Marvel, yes, but not a massive smash hit.

 

[Tony Stark]

Honestly with this property I don't feel the sense of risk there was with Guardians of the Galaxy, where Marvel was trying to so something really out there, and something unique to the rest of the MCU. If it had failed it would have been very bad for the company, and put more pressure on this film.

For me if this film bombs (and I agree with fixxxer's number assessment), they move on, there's probably no sequel and they can still use Ant-man if they want in Avengers Infinity War, or even try to relaunch as a television series.

If the film is successful, that's just another notch in Marvel's belt and showing that they could rescue a property that was really in dire straights under Wright's direction. The film may have never released at all.

My save guess is going to be $400-450M, and I think that's solid enough for this. But again, even if it makes less they can salvage the character for other things, but honestly it's Ant-man, it's not a real high stakes property.

 

[fixxxer]

^

Completely agree with that assessment. There's zero likelihood of it being an outright "bomb" IMO, but even if it under performs relative to their other properties, Marvel ultimately would have just put out a cool little (pun semi-intended ) one-off movie that didn't quite appeal to the broad masses. May not be the ideal scenario, but not too big of a deal one way or the other. They merely ground plans for a sequel and move forward with the characters playing supporting roles in other hero's movies and/or team-up movies.

Though, I think I'll be a little more optimistic and estimate $500-550 mill.

 

[kedrell]

I think Ant-Man will continue phase 2's trend of every stand alone beating the highest grossing stand alone of phase 1(which is IM2 at about $624m WW). So I'll guess $630m WW for Ant-Man. It'll get the mega boost that IM3 got after TA1 since it's following AoU. Not sure if it or Thor2 will end up as the lowest grossing phase 2 film yet. I see it being a real close race between them, though I expect Ant-Man to do better domestic yet poorer foreign than Thor2 did. Let's say $225m DOM and $410m OS for a $635M WW total, give or take $10m.

 

[ernesth100]

World wide? something between 300 and 350 mill nothing more nothing less. Placing bets on the table. Calling it now.

 

[fixxxer]

^

That would be a terrible bet. Given even odds, I would take that bet in a split second. You're basically saying this will do worse than every MCU movie other than The Incredible Hulk... which came from an era when the MCU was hardly a thing. Now, even saying that the MCU is a thing would be a massive understatement. It's possibly the single most popular thing in entertainment across the globe. While it might under perform relative to its peers, I think below $350 mill is extremely extremely unlikely.

 

[metaphysician]

I'd be comfortable saying 500M as a floor.

 

[warhorse78]

GoG was being described as Marvel meets Star Wars and both genres have big followings. Ant Man is an unknown super hero based on Earth. I'm not saying it's impossible but just don't expect this to be a blockbuster.

As part of the general audience, I was intrigued by the gun toting raccoon. No such thing in this movie. Personally, at the moment, the movie is not interesting me in the slightest. And Marvel themselves seemed to go right past this in the announcing of phase 3 movies and so on and go right to Captain America Civil War.

 

[TheVision]

I think kids will flip for Ant Man. Im expecting it to be a big hit.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think Marvel will settle for Ant Man being any kind of hit, small, modest or big.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah if it hits 500m they will be very happy. If everyone gets payd and the movie breaks even - with solid wom and reviews - Feige and his paymasters will breath a sigh of relief.

 

[Marvin]

After GotG I'd imagine the guess would be higher.
I think coming out that close to avengers(even the second one), it going to be some kinda boost. It will probably come down to competition. If it's in the GotG situation or TFA one.

 

[Flint Marko]

Long as it gets around 400m, which was my original guess, and good WOM I'll be pleased with the reception. I'm sure places like this will be tough on the movie, I'm already expecting it to be raked over the coals, but I never expected an Ant-man movie to be made, much less be a huge hit, so even if it receives a below average reception compared to the other MCU movies I'll be pleased.
Still though, every time I mention Ant-man to one of my friends or acquaintances when discussing CBM's they all go "huh? Are you serious?" and that first trailer didn't exactly light the world up like it probably needed to.
But we'll see, AoU is going to mop up and make Disney several billion dollars in box office and merchandising so at the end of the day Ant-man could turn out to be Green Lantern and the MCU won't slow down one bit.

 

[CaptainWagner]

They don't need this to be a huge hit, but I'm sure that once AOU is out, they'll ramp up the hype for Antman.

 

[warcam]

I'll say $600 million, but juuussstttt barely.
$200 domestic; $400 foreign.

 

[NHawk19]

Here's where the first releases came in according to box office mojo:
Thor was $468 WW in 2011,
TIH was $263 in 2008,
IM was $585 in 2008,
Cap TFA was $370 in 2011,
GOTG was $774 in 2014

I'm thinking that this wouldn't normally make Cap #'s but it'll get a post Avengers bounce and carries Marvel's name. I'm going $400 with a steeper than normal fall-off after opening weekend unless this movie is really fantastic. It'll also depend on how/if it ties to AoU in the post credits or movie itself. If it ties I'm guessing closer to $500

 

[kedrell]

After seeing the first full trailer I am more confident than ever in my guess of it doing around Thor2 numbers both domestic and foreign. Might even top MoS WW(wouldn't take much more of a bump beyond my initial guess anyway...say an extra 5%). Wouldn't that be a hoot. This will definitely be helped by the post Avengers boost I think and considering it's probably that film of theirs that needed the help the most then I'd say all is right in MCU-land regarding this.

 

[Dyson]

I'm thinking now...

North America: $215 - 235 million
International: $325 - 350 million

Worldwide: $540 - 585 million

 

[Spiderine]

This is something a little unique and different. Its like some sort of action packed "Honey I shrunk the kids" with better effects more comedy and more mature plot. Not to mention the added bonus of being another piece of the puzzle in the over encompassing MCU story arc that will bridge AOU and Civil War.

500 to 550 WW and about 220 mil DOM. That's outstanding enough for this film. I would even go a little higher o get closer to 600 mil.

 

[Raiden]

I think Ant-Man gross 600 mil WW, and 220 domestic.

 

[HaplessHenchman]

With the growth of the overseas market and the Marvel name, I could see this doing over $600 million WW easy.

 

[Tony Stark]

I want to be cautious on overpredicting the film, but I think with the visual spectacle this should do well. I think the Marvel brand has real drawing power, and even if it's not the greatest production, people are going to flock to it because of the branding.

However, after seeing what a incredible job they did with Daredevil (which I did not expect much at all from that series to be honest) I will never question Marvel again.

It's not that everything they touch turns to gold, but they have a proven track record. It's sort of like anyone who questioned whether Tom Brady had what it took to win another Superbowl after losing the last two. He's a proven champion and so is the Marvel business model.