Box Office Predictions

[Tony Stark]

There's no reason to believe this will do less than TDW so I voted $600M+

One thing is for certain, this won't have the PR problems that Captain America has in overseas market. I remember in the first film in some of the translations they never called him "Captain America" they just called him "the First Avenger", in addition to dropping CA from the title.

So I can see it doing very well overseas, especially in Asia where they eat up Superhero films.

Alot will depend on reviews. I don't think it needs 90% reviews but I do hope the reviews are in the 70% range.

 

[Flint Marko]

Im saying between 4-450 mil ww. July 16 can't get here soon enough.

That's my prediction as well. A little on the lower end, but I really don't think this is going to have as wide an audience as the previous MCU films. I hope I'm wrong though.

 

[Superhero 101]

I am expecting 55-60 opening weekend

 

[Wildcard]

^ With a budget of $130 million that might not be all that bad....hopefully it can haul in at least $170-200 million domestically but that all depends on if it's great enough to get people going in droves.

 

[KangConquers]

Is that budget confirmed? If so, these projections seem a lot less gloomy and doomy.

Also, do we have any real tracking yet?

 

[BatsDC]

We have tracking, sort of, for the domestic opening, which they reckon will be about $55-$60 million

 

[chamber-music]

Is that budget confirmed? If so, these projections seem a lot less gloomy and doomy.

Also, do we have any real tracking yet?

Yep. It is the lowest budget for a Marvel Studios film so far.

This film could do Thor 2 numbers and still be a hit with this budget.

 

[SyntaxError]

Remember that GOTG was tracking at around 60 at the same time before its release. Hopefully the movie gets good reviews after the embargo is lifted + good word of mouth after the first day.

Marketing seems to have ampted up recently as well.

 

[KangConquers]

So happy to hear this movie is stronger than expected. I was sort of dreading this one. Nothing about Peyton Reed gave me much confidence, and the fact that Marvel hasn't been shoving this down our throats as the greatest thing since sliced bread lead me to believe they had an internally acknowledged flop on their hands and that they were just trying to get the film over with.

Also happy to hear about the budget. It should have no problem tripling, if not quadrupling that budget.

 

[Marvel]

Domestic Opening = $77 Million

RT Final Number = 78% Fresh

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Still going with $450 million total, which would not be all that bad considering its release date, its smaller budget when compared to other MCU films, and relative obscurity of the characters to the GA.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

450 m WW would be disappointing considering Marvel Studios' recent track record and the positive buzz.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

I don't see how an ANT-MAN movie making 450m WW would be a disappointment. This isn't an Iron-Man or an Avengers movie, guys. Managed expectations would be wise here.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't see how an ANT-MAN movie making 450m WW would be a disappointment. This isn't an Iron-Man or an Avengers movie, guys. Managed expectations would be wise here.

The Marvel brand is extremely strong.

That last 6 MCU films made over 640 m including one with a talking raccoon and tree.

The bar has been raised for all future MCU films.

And the overseas audience has grown tremendously since the Incredible Hulk disappointed with only 128 m overseas.

Now you could have Ant-Man read a phonebook for 2 hours and make 250 m overseas.

 

[Mike5575]

600 mil + worldwide, because, why not?

 

[KangConquers]

I think I'm going with $550 M. Basically Thor 1, with an added $100 M from China.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm thinking Marvel has another sleeper hit like GotG on their hands here. Wouldn't be surprised if this does $600m+

 

[Illegal Seafood]

I'm going 600+ just because of the Marvel brand recognition and reputation.

If it gets RT 70% and above, with good word of mouth, that's the kind of stuff Thor and CA:TFA had which topped out around 400-450.

Using that as a baseline, the overseas market (mostly China) value and the good Marvel reputation I think will push it further.

 

[Spiderdevil]

I don't understand why some people say it is the riskiest movie for Marvel?

IMO its the safest, the budget is just 130m, that even lesser than the initial movies like IM1 and TIH

Even it makes 150m domestic and 250m overseas which the 'Marvel' name is enough for, it will end up making more than 3 times its budget.

Its a win-win for Marvel

 

[ssj wolverine]

I see opening weekend 65 million. Final numbers on the low end of $400 - $450 mil world wide. But wouldn't be surprised if it did much better because maybe more kids will come to see this because it is being promoted like a Disney picture.

 

[Solaire]

Didn't know the budget was that low. If it makes 600million WW then I could almost call it their biggest success lol.

 

[Flint Marko]

I had no idea the budget was that low either. That's good news.
I'm surprised so many people are voting that this will make over 600+ worldwide. I don't think that's going to happen, but I'd love to be wrong.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Goodness gracious, if it does over 600 million, Feige & Co will be doing backflips.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

I'm going conservative, $400 - $500 million. It worked for GotG.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'm going conservative, $400 - $500 million. It worked for GotG.

I'm with you.