Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Johnny-Oh]

Yeah everyone seems to be talking about this movie, is kind of insane actually, I never expected all this buzz surrounding the film.

 

[Silver Surfer]

1.7B would be nuts, that would almost double that of BvS, a tight slap on the faces of those who trolled Cap when date announced for both clashed a year ago

If it almost doubles the BVS worldwide gross then I don't want to hear anything from DC fanboys ever. Ever.

 

[FunkMiller]

If it almost doubles the BVS worldwide gross then I don't want to hear anything from DC fanboys ever. Ever.

You might hear about how much we hate Zack Snyder, if that's okay.

 

[WilliamK99]

If it almost doubles the BVS worldwide gross then I don't want to hear anything from DC fanboys ever. Ever.

Could you imagine if WB refused to move the day and BvS opened same day as CA: CW, Marvel execs would have been arrested for taking part in that slaughter....

 

[JOE]

You might hear about how much we hate Zack Snyder, if that's okay.

I don't care what anyone says that movie should have cleared 1B and been better received than MOS. Snyder knew the mistakes he made in MOS and what wasn't working. If anything he made a crappier movie. The only reason it outperformed MOS in the box office is because of Batman. Period.

Civil War is going to annihilate it's box office, starting with the OW. It's not people hating DC and loving Marvel. From what I've read it's just a great movie, and it's being rewarded.

 

[FunkMiller]

Could you imagine if WB refused to move the day and BvS opened same day as CA: CW, Marvel execs would have been arrested for taking part in that slaughter....

That was my first red flag that BvS wasn't all it could have been. If they'd thought they had a very high quality movie on their hands, they wouldn't have budged. The Trinity would have beaten Civil War in a world where somebody better than Zack Snyder had made it.

 

[FunkMiller]

I don't care what anyone says that movie should have cleared 1B and been better received than MOS. Snyder knew the mistakes he made in MOS and what wasn't working. If anything he made a crappier movie. The only reason it outperformed MOS in the box office is because of Batman. Period.

Civil War is going to annihilate it's box office, starting with the OW. It's not people hating DC and loving Marvel. From what I've read it's just a great movie, and it's being rewarded.

What you're hearing is some very vocal fans of Zack Snyder, not necessarily fans of the DC Universe. For a great many of us, we knew he was a poor choice to run the show, and the lead up to BvS wasn't a time of great excitement - it was a time of worry. Justifiably so, it turns out.

I firmly believe that in different, more capable hands the DCEU would go over the MCU given the characters it has in its stable, but the whole thing has been badly managed from day one in a desperate attempt to catch up to Marvel.

 

[Kanon]

If it almost doubles the BVS worldwide gross then I don't want to hear anything from DC fanboys ever. Ever.

You will still hear (from some) "I prefer my serious intellectual masterpieces that the GA and their mamas is too dumb to understand, and critics hate 'cause they are bought by Disney". Psychos...

 

[marshal99]

Could you imagine if WB refused to move the day and BvS opened same day as CA: CW, Marvel execs would have been arrested for taking part in that slaughter....

It would be like ...

When they announced BvS on the same day , i thought that WB execs must have some balls to go up against marvel but as it turned out , they blinked first and quickly switch the date earlier. For a movie that is supposed to jumpstart their universe and having their iconic heroes meeting for the first time and after much marketing and hype , it's not making as much as they obviously hoped for but at least they are not going to compete directly against civil war as that would be even worse for them.

 

[Kanon]

It would be like ...

When they announced BvS on the same day , i thought that WB execs must have some balls to go up against marvel but as it turned out , they blinked first and quickly switch the date earlier. For a movie that is supposed to jumpstart their universe and having their iconic heroes meeting for the first time and after much marketing and hype , it's not making as much as they obviously hoped for but at least they are not going to compete directly against civil war as that would be even worse for them.

IIRC, when it was announced in that date, it was against an "unnanounced Marvel movie", that might have been Dr Strange (that's what I thought at the time). It was later revealed that it was Cap 3, then BvS moved, then it was revealed it was CW (and that's when it made sense that BvS moved, they probably heard that CW with RDJ was in talks)

 

[marshal99]

IIRC, when it was announced in that date, it was against an "unnanounced Marvel movie", that might have been Dr Strange (that's what I thought at the time). It was later revealed that it was Cap 3, then BvS moved, then it was revealed it was CW (and that's when it made sense that BvS moved, they probably heard that CW with RDJ was in talks)

Not so sure , Cap 3 was always set on 6 May when feige announced phrase 3 in 2014.

 

[Kanon]

Not so sure , Cap 3 was always set on 6 May when feige announced phrase 3 in 2014.

It's all from memory, so I could be very wrong.

I'm trying to build a timeline, what I got so far:

Jan 2014: BvS is delayed to May 6, 2016.
Mar 2014 Cap 3 is said to release in 2016, so it is speculated that it could be the unnanouced Marvel movie for May 6 2016 (there were 2 slots that Marvel had claimed at the moment)
Apr 2014 At the moment the 2 Marvel movies for 2016 are untitled
Apr 2014: Marvel confirms Cap 3 for May 6, 2016
Aug 2014 BvS moves away from, at the moment, Cap 3
Oct 2014 Robert Downey Jr is said to be in talks to join Cap 3, reportedly Civil War
Oct 2014 Marvel reveals that Cap 3 is Civil War

 

[Spiderdevil]

They are going to have to start filming parts of these movies in well known Chinese areas. Let's call it "product placement". t:

Did Furious 7 have scenes set in China? I though it did well there because the director was of Chinese descent

 

[samsnee]

Honestly with the exception of a vocal few, I think most "DC fanboys" didn't really care for BvS either and wish it got half the positive reviews CW is getting.

 

[JOE]

Honestly with the exception of a vocal few, I think most "DC fanboys" didn't really care for BvS either and wish it got half the positive reviews CW is getting.

I call a spade a spade. The majority of people thought it wasn't a good movie and it's box office suffered the consequences. The opposite is happening for Civil War right now. It's tracking to do 200M OW and 1B is a lock with 1.2-1.3 in range.

The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 2 and The Avengers are my top 3 CBMs of all time. DC/WB, Marvel/Disney and Sony. I have zero bias to any studio, but right now Marvel is knocking it out of the park and DC is s****ing the bed, IMO. Which sucks, because I loved Ben as Batman and think they have a lot of potential there. I'd be sticking to Batman solo movies with sprinkles of other Justice League members. He's the only thing consistently positive for DC in the past 11 years.

 

[InCali]

Did Furious 7 have scenes set in China? I though it did well there because the director was of Chinese descent

No. Though Vin hinted that locations might be shot there for the next movie. There was a guy from the area on another thread (don't remember who, but think it was in the AoU thread???) who mentioned that this would go over really big with the Chinese audience (having a movie partially shot in a well known Chinese location).

 

[Erzengel]

Most people who've seen this has said this is Cap 3 and not Avengers 2.5. That being said, I'll say it comes in around $1.3B.

 

[johnboy3434]

I'll have more long-term projections that no one cares about as soon as BO.com makes its final OW prediction. *keeps hitting "refresh"*

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Most people who've seen this has said this is Cap 3 and not Avengers 2.5. That being said, I'll say it comes in around $1.3B.

Yeah, somewhere between Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3 is probably the safe bet.

Captain America: Civil War earned an additional $17.2 million overseas yesterday, bringing its foreign box office to $241.5m in its first week. That puts it within smashing distance of The Incredible Hulk‘s entire $263m worldwide cume back in 2008 (inflation, 3D, etc, etc. notwithstanding). At this relative rate, it should have around $275m overseas by the time it opens on Friday (or Thursday night) in America and China. Although it should get a boost over the next two days as it opens in Italy today and Russia and Argentina tomorrow.

 

[warriorking]

And we can safely bet CA-CW will not drop over 70% on its second weekend...

 

[shinlyle]

If it almost doubles the BVS worldwide gross then I don't want to hear anything from DC fanboys ever. Ever.

Preach.

Yeah, I've heard some DC Fanboys hate on it harder than anyone else...then you have the sheep. Those who will love anything because they MATE Marvel's success SO MUCH.

Those are sheep, not fans. I liken them to the ones who swallow whatever Transformer catastrophe Michael Bay churns out talking about how it it "the best TF movie EVER!!!"

 

[Webfoot Hero]

And we can safely bet CA-CW will not drop over 70% on its second weekend...

I think that's probably a given with the reviews it's getting.

 

[MagicalMe]

With regards to the second weekend drop, is it possible that the early lifting of the review embargo will result in this being more front-loaded than we would otherwise expect or is that not really going to have an effect?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

With regards to the second weekend drop, is it possible that the early lifting of the review embargo will result in this being more front-loaded than we would otherwise expect or is that not really going to have an effect?

It may be more front-loaded, but I think the good reviews and word of mouth will keep it from dropping like a rock.

 

[third3ye]

Not so sure , Cap 3 was always set on 6 May when feige announced phrase 3 in 2014.

It was an untitled Marvel film when WB postponed BvS to that date on Jan 2014. On Apr 2014, Marvel announced it was Cap 3 but gave no details. Both films sat on the same weekend until Aug 2014 when WB moved BvS to Mar. Then on Oct 2014, Feige announced that it would be Cap Civil War with RDJ in tow; this is the pic you posted.