Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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They aren't really comparable when the Tolkien saga already existed as books - and the Hobbit came first. (Not to mention taking a book shorter than Fellowship and stretching it to a trilogy.)

The problem with the SW prequels is they were bad films.
 
They did already exist as books but Jackson took imo the more interesting LOTR and did that first then did the Hobbit. I was so disinterested with those movies that I waited for them on Netflix and still it was almost forced viewing.
 
Jordanstine said:
Funny story today, I spoke to 6 of my co-workers after our conference ended, they're men between the ages of 25 - 40 who are basically regular audiences who aren't familiar with the comic books, and 5 out of the 6 didn't even know that Spider-Man was in the new "Captain America movie", and the movie comes out tonight!

Only 2 out of the 6 are planning on seeing the movie "sometime in the next couple weeks", and 1 of them didn't even he didn't know Spider-Man was in it - his reason for seeing Civil War was because his kid liked Iron Man and knew that Iron Man was in this movie "from the posters".

After they found out Spidey was in this movie, they all looked surprised, and the other 4 who weren't originally planning on catching Civil War say that Spidey in this film did pique their interest.

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.
Click to expand...
This is what I try to get across sometimes here. We are in a bubble near the extreme of people who think about these films. Many other GA members watch and love all the Marvel films but don't go out of their way to see a single trailer or read a review or even ever google anything to do with any of the films. The only time they see something is when they are a captive audience to certain types of marketing like billboards and trailers ahead of different films they see in the cinema. I mean I will watch every Bourne and Mission Impossible film and be very excited about them and buy them on blu-ray as soon as they come out & rewatch them all every so often, but I won't ever do anything outside of that or know a single thing about them (that everyone else doesn't know) before I see them in the cinema first time. All my anticipation goes to the things I'm MOST anticipating (for eg CBMs, fantasy novels and certain games) and it's the same for much of the GA who may be more into their favourite sports team, travel, reality TV :dry:, fashion, music or whatever even though they love the MCU films.
 
johnboy3434 said:
Umm... yes they do. Every Thursday. They just haven't done it yet today. We should have it before 6 PM ET.
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Well then they should make it more visible because I've never seen it on there.
 
The box office on this should break every record in history based on the fact that living in Phoenix I cannot find a theater to see it in that isn't already 90% sold out over the next three days. I ****ing hate movie ticket pre-orders.
 
The movie theater is an AMC theater. You can purchase your tickets and pick your seats ahead of time. I already picked out my seat weeks ago. :up:
 
I tend not to make opening weekend estimates because various box office websites do that and they probably know better than me. But I'm feeling frisky, so my OW number that I came up with all by my lonesome is... $199M. A bit on the pessimistic side, but that's what The Price is Right teaches you.
 
Yeah, it was pretty obvious to me that this weekend would be a battle to get a seat weeks ago. Just the way it goes with tentpole movies, especially the first one of the summer season.
 
Jordanstine said:
Funny story today, I spoke to 6 of my co-workers after our conference ended, they're men between the ages of 25 - 40 who are basically regular audiences who aren't familiar with the comic books, and 5 out of the 6 didn't even know that Spider-Man was in the new "Captain America movie", and the movie comes out tonight!

Only 2 out of the 6 are planning on seeing the movie "sometime in the next couple weeks", and 1 of them didn't even he didn't know Spider-Man was in it - his reason for seeing Civil War was because his kid liked Iron Man and knew that Iron Man was in this movie "from the posters".

After they found out Spidey was in this movie, they all looked surprised, and the other 4 who weren't originally planning on catching Civil War say that Spidey in this film did pique their interest.

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.
Click to expand...

THIS THIS, Hundred times this

I think the advertising dropped the ball with this, they tried to go the Vision way with him, showing as little as possible, it doesn't work the same way because the GA doesn't even know who Vision is, Spidey is the world beater

He the only Marvel character who stands tall alongside Batman and Superman, that dude has the highest grossing CBMs in India, Japan and a bunch of other Asian countries, even his last 2 movies, which didn't get the best reception, made a respectable 750m odd WW, they should have plastered him all over the TV Spots, Posters etc

I am not asking them to spoil his scenes, just use the two scenes ('Hey Everyone' and 'Metal arm' one) but run these scenes into the ground with relentless advertising
 
Given the performances of the respective last movies one could assume that Iron Man is a bigger draw than both Batman, Superman and Spider-Man. And in any case, even if people aren't aware that Spider-Man is in the movie it's going to change after owe.
 
Should be ok for rewatches and for excited word of mouth.
 
Spiderdevil said:
THIS THIS, Hundred times this

I think the advertising dropped the ball with this, they tried to go the Vision way with him, showing as little as possible, it doesn't work the same way because the GA doesn't even know who Vision is, Spidey is the world beater

He the only Marvel character who stands tall alongside Batman and Superman, that dude has the highest grossing CBMs in India, Japan and a bunch of other Asian countries, even his last 2 movies, which didn't get the best reception, made a respectable 750m odd WW, they should have plastered him all over the TV Spots, Posters etc

I am not asking them to spoil his scenes, just use the two scenes ('Hey Everyone' and 'Metal arm' one) but run these scenes into the ground with relentless advertising
Click to expand...

They probably didn't have that option. Sony had a say in how much promotion Spider-Man would appear in.
 
Let's not pretend like Iron Man isn't a juggernaut in international markets. Without Spidey being heavily shown (who is just a supporting character here anyway) they'll be more than happy to see Stark anyway.
 
It's hilarious to see so many people complaining about lack of Spider-man in the marketing, it doesn't really matter, this is an upper limit to how much a movie can make anyways opening weekend. WOM will mention Spidey and it will push it through second weekend and beyond...
 
They couldn't show more of Spidey even if they wanted anyway
 
Well, all three major tracking sites have put forward their OW predictions...

BoxOffice.com - $214M
Box Office Mojo - $210M
The Numbers - $200M
 
Alright, guys. 6 minutes until Civil War starts in theaters on the East Coast. Let's try our hardest to get this gargantuan Marvel mega-blockbuster past $220M or more this coming weekend. I'll see u all at the Jersey Gardens Saturday night at 11.
 
220 million seems a tad excessive to me. I'll call anything over 210 a victory.
 
Anything at 200m or above is a win to me. I just want another MCU film to cross that milestone.
 
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