Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

Discussion in 'Captain America: Civil War' started by Thread Manager, May 11, 2016.

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  1. Thread Manager Moderator

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    This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]513865[/split]
     
  2. Thread Manager Moderator

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    This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]487909[/split]
     
  3. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Prolly so....Sam Worthington is probably right up there and he's a better actor .... :o
     
  4. Ozbridge Registered

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    Currently RDJ is 322M behind Harrison Ford (unadjusted worldwide), 1.14B (unadjusted domestic). If we count adjusted domestic then RDJ can forget about it because he's about 5B less.

    Edit: He's also around 1.9B behind Samuel Jackson (adjusted worldwide) and 915M (unadjusted domestic).
     
    #4 Ozbridge, May 11, 2016
    Last edited: May 11, 2016
  5. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Harrison Ford. I forgot about him. That makes a ton of sense. So in another movie or so he'll overtake him. Good one.

    Samuel Jackson, I can't quite buy. His role in some of the movies was a relatively minor one. If RDJ did a cameo or little more in the new SM movie, I wouldn't count that either.

    Also, either adjust or don't, but mixing them together doesn't make sense and makes me think you're playing some games with my head. :oldrazz:

    Also, I wouldn't count Mark Hamill in TFA, but almost certainly will for Ep 8.
     
  6. Ozbridge Registered

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    I'd say that RDJ will overtake HF in a month or so (unadjusted worldwide), after that RDJ has SMH and the 2 Avengers movies, which I think will help him overtake HF unadjusted domestic. But presumably after RDJ retires from Marvel after Avengers, Indiana Jones comes out in 2019 (11 weeks after the-movie-that-used-to-be-Infinity War II). The last one made 317M domestic, though that was before LucasFilm was bought by the powerhouse that is Disney.

    About SJ, I got the number from BO Mojo and they already excluded the movies in which his role was considered "cameo" (SW I, SW II, IR 1, Cap I, Thor I), though I'm quite surprised that his role from AoU was counted, while his role from Jurassic Park wasn't.
     
    #6 Ozbridge, May 11, 2016
    Last edited: May 11, 2016
  7. johnboy3434 Registered

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    CW projections based on Tuesday numbers...

    Wednesday: $11M (-19.8%)
    Thursday: $9.98M (-9.59%)
    OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

    Friday: $24.9M (+149%)
    Saturday: $38.8M (+56%)
    Sunday: $26.4M (-31.9%)
    SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $90.1M (-49.7%)

    PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC: $525M (2.93x)
     
  8. grieven The Amazing Side-Kick

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    According to boxofficemojo's comparisons of 2016's big cbm's, CW is the only movie to increase from Monday to Tuesday following the opening weekend (maybe due to Mondays being a holiday for Deadpool and BvS), and CW has regained the crown for highest daily grosser.

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superhero2016.htm

    I want CW to reach $500 mil domestic, but hope for at least $450 mil. Especially if X-MA is disappointing as early reviews suggest.
     
  9. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    Official numbers for Tuesday: $13,761,120

    It narrowly beat out The Dark Knight ($203.8M) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 ($202.6M) for 5th all time in terms of biggest 5 day gross ($206.2M).
     
  10. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    I don't know how much globally CW will make today, but I have faith it'll top Deadpool's global total by a few thousand dollars.
     
    #10 LucDisfilm19, May 11, 2016
    Last edited: May 11, 2016
  11. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    That's probably about bang on. Either way, by whatever amount, Civil War will likely pass Deadpool today.
     
  12. third3ye Registered

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    Very encouraging Tue haul, gives me more confidence about a 50% 2nd weekend drop instead of >55%.
     
  13. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    Right, sorry. I meant today.
     
  14. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    No worries. I knew what you meant. We'll get the figures tomorrow, yes.
     
  15. JKKS085 Registered

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    That is an impressive Tuesday number by all accounts after an already unusually good hold on monday. Now here's hoping the 2nd week end drop will follow that trend. It probably has to drop in the neighborhood of 50/52% to get a chance to get to 500M dom (at the very least no more than 55%).
     
  16. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    A 50% drop will put it on the track to 500 million, come on baby!
     
  17. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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  18. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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  19. SuperAl Superman's back!

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    that kinda makes the TDK total even more impressive since there were no 3D sales for that film.
     
  20. third3ye Registered

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  21. The Caped Knight Shield Avenger

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    Civil War will rake in a large *** of money for at least the next 3 weeks being number 1.
     
  22. Gerontophobe Cheesehead

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    To be fair, that was during the summer when kids were out of school and thus weekdays were higher. But yeah, TDK was a beast (and deservedly so).
     
  23. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    We must do our best to get Civil War past $1B by Sunday night to show that piracy leaks and BvS's negative reviews ain't got nothing on Civil War.
     
  24. Tacit Ronin Registered

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    Ewww
     
  25. johnboy3434 Registered

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    I'm... not sure I would want that money.
     
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