Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]513865[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]487909[/split]

 

[InCali]

So it just hit me. Is RDJ the highest-grossing actor of all time or is he getting there. I mean 1 bill is a lock for CW so that would make his last 4 (!!!!) MCU to have grossed over 1 bill. Damn!!!!

Prolly so....Sam Worthington is probably right up there and he's a better actor ....

 

[Ozbridge]

So it just hit me. Is RDJ the highest-grossing actor of all time or is he getting there. I mean 1 bill is a lock for CW so that would make his last 4 (!!!!) MCU to have grossed over 1 bill. Damn!!!!

Currently RDJ is 322M behind Harrison Ford (unadjusted worldwide), 1.14B (unadjusted domestic). If we count adjusted domestic then RDJ can forget about it because he's about 5B less.

Edit: He's also around 1.9B behind Samuel Jackson (adjusted worldwide) and 915M (unadjusted domestic).

 

[InCali]

Currently RDJ is 322M behind Harrison Ford (unadjusted worldwide), 1.14B (unadjusted domestic). If we count adjusted domestic then RDJ can forget about it because he's about 5B less.

Edit: He's also around 1.9B behind Samuel Jackson (adjusted worldwide) and 915M (unadjusted domestic).

Harrison Ford. I forgot about him. That makes a ton of sense. So in another movie or so he'll overtake him. Good one.

Samuel Jackson, I can't quite buy. His role in some of the movies was a relatively minor one. If RDJ did a cameo or little more in the new SM movie, I wouldn't count that either.

Also, either adjust or don't, but mixing them together doesn't make sense and makes me think you're playing some games with my head.

Also, I wouldn't count Mark Hamill in TFA, but almost certainly will for Ep 8.

 

[Ozbridge]

Harrison Ford. I forgot about him. That makes a ton of sense. So in another movie or so he'll overtake him. Good one.

I'd say that RDJ will overtake HF in a month or so (unadjusted worldwide), after that RDJ has SMH and the 2 Avengers movies, which I think will help him overtake HF unadjusted domestic. But presumably after RDJ retires from Marvel after Avengers, Indiana Jones comes out in 2019 (11 weeks after the-movie-that-used-to-be-Infinity War II). The last one made 317M domestic, though that was before LucasFilm was bought by the powerhouse that is Disney.

About SJ, I got the number from BO Mojo and they already excluded the movies in which his role was considered "cameo" (SW I, SW II, IR 1, Cap I, Thor I), though I'm quite surprised that his role from AoU was counted, while his role from Jurassic Park wasn't.

 

[johnboy3434]

CW projections based on Tuesday numbers...

Wednesday: $11M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.98M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

Friday: $24.9M (+149%)
Saturday: $38.8M (+56%)
Sunday: $26.4M (-31.9%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $90.1M (-49.7%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC: $525M (2.93x)

 

[grieven]

According to boxofficemojo's comparisons of 2016's big cbm's, CW is the only movie to increase from Monday to Tuesday following the opening weekend (maybe due to Mondays being a holiday for Deadpool and BvS), and CW has regained the crown for highest daily grosser.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superhero2016.htm

I want CW to reach $500 mil domestic, but hope for at least $450 mil. Especially if X-MA is disappointing as early reviews suggest.

 

[JB33]

Official numbers for Tuesday: $13,761,120

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 55m55 minutes ago
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned $13.76M on Tuesday and has grossed $206.19M in 5 days domestically. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

It narrowly beat out The Dark Knight ($203.8M) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 ($202.6M) for 5th all time in terms of biggest 5 day gross ($206.2M).

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I don't know how much globally CW will make today, but I have faith it'll top Deadpool's global total by a few thousand dollars.

 

[JB33]

I don't know how much globally CW will make tomorrow, but I have faith it'll top Deadpool's global total by a few thousand dollars.

That's probably about bang on. Either way, by whatever amount, Civil War will likely pass Deadpool today.

 

[third3ye]

Very encouraging Tue haul, gives me more confidence about a 50% 2nd weekend drop instead of >55%.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

That's probably about bang on. Either way, by whatever amount, Civil War will likely pass Deadpool today.

Right, sorry. I meant today.

 

[JB33]

Right, sorry. I meant today.

No worries. I knew what you meant. We'll get the figures tomorrow, yes.

 

[JKKS085]

That is an impressive Tuesday number by all accounts after an already unusually good hold on monday. Now here's hoping the 2nd week end drop will follow that trend. It probably has to drop in the neighborhood of 50/52% to get a chance to get to 500M dom (at the very least no more than 55%).

 

[Silver Surfer]

A 50% drop will put it on the track to 500 million, come on baby!

 

[JB33]

BoxOffice Pro forecasts an $81M 2nd weekend:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war-money-monster-darkness/

 

[LucDisfilm19]

BoxOffice Pro forecasts an $81M 2nd weekend:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war-money-monster-darkness/

That's about well safe enough for me as its between 50% and 55% of dropping. I'm thinking 54.5% drop. Is that safe enough?

 

[SuperAl]

Official numbers for Tuesday: $13,761,120



It narrowly beat out The Dark Knight ($203.8M) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 ($202.6M) for 5th all time in terms of biggest 5 day gross ($206.2M).

that kinda makes the TDK total even more impressive since there were no 3D sales for that film.

 

[third3ye]

BoxOffice Pro forecasts an $81M 2nd weekend:
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war-money-monster-darkness/

$81m is a safe number, I could see $85m this weekend, hoping for $90m. Also Jungle Book legs continue to look solid, forecasted with only a 33% drop.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Civil War will rake in a large *** of money for at least the next 3 weeks being number 1.

 

[Gerontophobe]

that kinda makes the TDK total even more impressive since there were no 3D sales for that film.

To be fair, that was during the summer when kids were out of school and thus weekdays were higher. But yeah, TDK was a beast (and deservedly so).

 

[LucDisfilm19]

We must do our best to get Civil War past $1B by Sunday night to show that piracy leaks and BvS's negative reviews ain't got nothing on Civil War.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Civil War will rake in a large *** of money for at least the next 3 weeks being number 1.

Ewww

 

[johnboy3434]

Ewww

I'm... not sure I would want that money.