The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[antonydelfini]

I think 600 worldwide. 250 Domestic, 350 international.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I think 600 worldwide. 250 Domestic, 350 international.

That's what I am hoping for.

 

[insideguy]

250 domestic? I dont know about that. 2013 had five live action movies do that. None of them were released in april. Hunger games, IM3, MOS, Gravity, and Hobbit. I just cant see this movie bringing in more than Hobbit. Sorry.

 

[Suzanne78]

$250 could happen, I think, but as stated above, it depends on a lot of factors, but I wouldn't necessarily count it out.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Winter Soldier being released in April isn't the reason why it wouldn't hit 250mil. Before 300 grossed 210mil in 2006 March wasn't a big big time to release films. Now you have Alice in Wonderland doing 334mil, The Hunger Games grossing 408mil and just last year Oz the Great and Powerful grossing 235mil (Divergent is currently tracking to open with 60+million). Hell the first weekend of May wasn't always a plum spot, 2002's Spider-Man permanently put the first weekend of May on the map.

If Winter Soldier doesn't make 250mil that wouldn't be the least bit surprising because the only Marvel Studio films that have hit that mark domestically are all the Iron Man films and The Avengers.

P.S.

Not a lot of October films gross 270mil so Gravity is anomaly.

 

[insideguy]

Winter Soldier being released in April isn't the reason why it wouldn't hit 250mil. Before 300 grossed 210mil in 2006 March wasn't a big big time to release films. Now you have Alice in Wonderland doing 334mil, The Hunger Games grossing 408mil and just last year Oz the Great and Powerful grossing 235mil (Divergent is currently tracking to open with 60+million). Hell the first weekend of May wasn't always a plum spot, 2002's Spider-Man permanently put the first weekend of May on the map.

If Winter Soldier doesn't make 250mil that wouldn't be the least bit surprising because the only Marvel Studio films that have hit that mark domestically are all the Iron Man films and The Avengers.

P.S.

Not a lot of October films gross 270mil so Gravity is anomaly.

I am just stating that if I were a betting man I wouldnt bet for 250 million. Thats a tough nut to crack. Opening at 60 plus million is nowhere near what you need to get to 250 normally. Thor opened up at what 80 05 85 million? Made 206. You need a large opening and/or looooong legs. Hunger games opened at 158 million, IM3 at 174 million,MOS 116 million, Hobbit 73 million(but holiday time) Gravity is the only one that stands out. But that was an academy award movie that had 95 percent Rotten tomatoes and two huge actors and was very original. So yea it could pull a gravity but I wouldnt count on it.

 

[regnak]

It will do better than 60 million, the first got $65 or so and this will do much better.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Am I the only one that thinks the marketing for this move is better than the marketing for Thor 2?

 

[insideguy]

It will do better than 60 million, the first got $65 or so and this will do much better.

Oh im sure it will open up at better than 60 million. No doubt. Hell looks like the new 300 is opening at 45 million. Thats pretty freaking impressive for an R movie.

 

[insideguy]

Am I the only one that thinks the marketing for this move is better than the marketing for Thor 2?

I think you have more to market. Heli carrier, Shield , black widow, Robert Redford, Falcon. Lots more diversity.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I think you have more to market. Heli carrier, Shield , black widow, Robert Redford, Falcon. Lots more diversity.

Not to mention The Winter Soldier himself.

 

[insideguy]

Not to mention The Winter Soldier himself.

Tru dat.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Insideguy where are you getting that 60mil number from? The first film opened with 65mil and was pretty decently received.

Iron Man 2 and Thor 2 opened 30% higher than their original films, why wouldn't Captain America's sequel have that sort of improvement? You really should be assuming 80mil+ not 60mil. You could still make your point and I don't necessarily disagree with your point. Making 250mil off of a say 84.5mil opening weekend isn't an easy thing to do and is virtually impossible for a live action sequel whose first film only had a 2.7 multiplier.

So lets see Iron Man 2 and Thor: The Dark World both had 2.4 multiplier's so if we assume Captain America: The Winter Soldier continues that trend then Winter Soldier will need about a 105mil opening to guarantee a 250mil total gross.

 

[insideguy]

Insideguy where are you getting that 60mil number from? The first film opened with 65mil and was pretty decently received.

Iron Man 2 and Thor 2 opened 30% higher than their original films, why wouldn't Captain America's sequel have that sort of improvement? You really should be assuming 80mil+ not 60mil. You could still make your point and I don't necessarily disagree with your point. Making 250mil off of a say 84.5mil opening weekend isn't an easy thing to do and is virtually impossible for a live action sequel whose first film only had a 2.7 multiplier.

So lets see Iron Man 2 and Thor: The Dark World both had 2.4 multiplier's so if we assume Captain America: The Winter Soldier continues that trend then Winter Soldier will need about a 105mil opening to guarantee a 250mil total gross.

I think you misunderstood. You mentioned Divergent opening at 60 million thats where I got 60 million from. I said that cap will open at much more than 60 million. And I actually think that if it opens around 100 million that gives it a chance at 250 just because I like where it sits as far as no comp. I dont think it will open at 100 million but if it does I say it has a good chance.

 

[TJByrum]

Who wants to place bets on how much the movie makes? Anyone? No? Alright.

I'm interested in how much money this movie will make; I just hope it makes a lot. I still say 500mil, but I wish it was... 700+ million, as unlikely as it is.

 

[insideguy]

Who wants to place bets on how much the movie makes? Anyone? No? Alright.

I'm interested in how much money this movie will make; I just hope it makes a lot. I still say 500mil, but I wish it was... 700+ million, as unlikely as it is.

Depends on how it does overseas. I think it will do better overseas than alot of people think. I say between 500 and 600 million. I think. LOL.

 

[TJByrum]

Depends on how it does overseas. I think it will do better overseas than alot of people think. I say between 500 and 600 million. I think. LOL.

Call me ignorant, but I figured Cap would never do well overseas cause he had 'America' in his name.

But I figure since everyone recognizes him now as an Avenger he'll do a bit better.

Plus we're getting bigger demographics with Falcon and Fury being major characters in the movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think you misunderstood. You mentioned Divergent opening at 60 million thats where I got 60 million from. I said that cap will open at much more than 60 million. And I actually think that if it opens around 100 million that gives it a chance at 250 just because I like where it sits as far as no comp. I dont think it will open at 100 million but if it does I say it has a good chance.

Oh okay, got ya.

I'd like for it to do 100mil opening but I don't quite see that happening either but I'm still going to predict 100+mil because my inner fangirl tells me to.

 

[insideguy]

Call me ignorant, but I figured Cap would never do well overseas cause he had 'America' in his name.

But I figure since everyone recognizes him now as an Avenger he'll do a bit better.

Plus we're getting bigger demographics with Falcon and Fury being major characters in the movie.

Ya the avengers stuff helps a ton. Plus yes it has captain america in its name. But dont think this movie is going for America Good, everyone else bad vibe at all. I think it will do well overseas.

 

[insideguy]

Oh okay, got ya.

I'd like for it to do 100mil opening but I don't quite see that happening either but I'm still going to predict 100+mil because my inner fangirl tells me to.

I like its spot as far as where its opening. I think Noah will be a bust so I dont think thats going to hurt it. Rio 2 will do well but thats a week down the line and not really the same audience. Rio will probably take the 2nd weekend but thats no big deal.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I like its spot as far as where its opening. I think Noah will be a bust so I dont think thats going to hurt it. Rio 2 will do well but thats a week down the line and not really the same audience. Rio will probably take the 2nd weekend but thats no big deal.

A lot of it's performance does depend on the competition. Personally I don't see Noah doing super good either. I guess it could crawl over the 100mil mark if everything goes right with it but things are not looking good right now. I agree that Rio will most likely take number one and that it won't be a big deal because whocares about chart position when a film is making money?

 

[Raiden]

'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' Tracking Huge for $80 Million-Plus Debut

 

[Joeyjojo72]

$600 million seemed like a stretch, but now Im not sure. $200 million domestic means it has to double that overseas. But maybe 250 is possible now. Hmmm...

 

[marcvader]

So i originally voted $600 thinking it would make somewheres between $575 and $600 but now im upping it to between $600-650. Closer to $650.

 

[RickCoronel]

I think it'll do closer to $700 - $800. It looks like a bigger and better film than Thor: TDW. And I liked Thor 2, not the film I wanted it to be but it gets a little better with each viewing.