Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' started by Mr. Dent, Apr 8, 2013.

?

How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?

  1. $1.5 billion

  2. $1 billion

  3. $900 million

  4. $800 million

  5. $700 million

  6. $600 million

  7. $500 million

  8. $400 million

  9. $300 million

  10. $200 million

  11. $1.5 billion

  12. $1 billion

  13. $900 million

  14. $800 million

  15. $700 million

  16. $600 million

  17. $500 million

  18. $400 million

  19. $300 million

  20. $200 million

  21. $1.5 billion

  22. $1 billion

  23. $900 million

  24. $800 million

  25. $700 million

  26. $600 million

  27. $500 million

  28. $400 million

  29. $300 million

  30. $200 million

Multiple votes are allowed.
Results are only viewable after voting.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2004
    Messages:
    36,059
    Likes Received:
    45
    April is still a quiet month compare to the summer season. Just look at Oblivion's performance this month. Captain America 2 has to be really good to set records in April.

    And competition doesn't matter that much to sure-fire blockbuster movie franchises such as Iron Man, Batman, etc. Some movies opened in a very crowded month/weekend and still managed to gross more than 200 to 300 million. Captain America is not even a big movie franchise yet. Its probably going to do decent business, but as far as setting records, earning more than 200 million with an April release date, I'm not sure if this movie achieve that.
     
    #26
  2. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    4,309
    Likes Received:
    0
    You're not taking the "Avengers boost" in to account. The Captain America franchise before The Avengers and after The Avengers are two different things. Cap 2 probably would have made more than $200M WITHOUT The Avengers but now that Captain America is an A-List superhero Cap 2 will pretty much automatically be a big film, and could easily make more than $200M domestically.
     
    #27
  3. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2004
    Messages:
    36,059
    Likes Received:
    45
    I'm already taking the Avengers boost thats why I said it would perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. You have to remember that this isn't the 1st film coming out post-The Avengers, its the 3rd. The films that are gonna get the most boost are Iron Man 3 and Thor 2. And I have a feeling next year, that the Avengers effect will start to wear out in general audience, thats why I see Cap 2 and GOTG being less successful than Iron Man 3 and Thor 2. Not every film that will come out after The Avengers will perform like gold. They will still have to rely on the star power of the lead actor, good release date, etc. And in my opinion, Captain America will never be as successful as the movies of Iron Man and The Avengers.
     
    #28
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
  4. Repulsor Blast

    Repulsor Blast Walloping Websnappers

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2013
    Messages:
    4,061
    Likes Received:
    0
    why did TFA so poorly in america? you guys are pretty patriotic after all.
     
    #29
  5. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    8,941
    Likes Received:
    0
    $176m is poor?
     
    #30
  6. DOOZlovesBOOZ

    DOOZlovesBOOZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2012
    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    0
    I guess what repulsor was getting at is that since Cap is a representation of American pride, then why wasn't the BO bigger than it was. And to answer that I would say IMO most people had no idea who Cap was, I know I didn't(just got into comics cuz of
    Avengers) but went and saw the movie cuz I knew he was part of the avengers build up.
     
    #31
  7. InternetPeople

    InternetPeople Petty... and tiny

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2013
    Messages:
    897
    Likes Received:
    0
    I always thought Cap was kinda weak compared to the other heroes. He's really a gymnast with a shield. He needs a really strong story and character development because he's just not a character that pops off the screen for action. Watch TFA and you'll see what I'm saying.

    I love my country as much as anyone but just because a dude wears the flag doesn't mean I automatically love him. All that said, I loved the film and the character has really grown on me.
     
    #32
  8. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    4,309
    Likes Received:
    0
    No way in hell that happens. You've got it backwards, Captain America is the franchise that benefits the most from the Avengers boost for 3 reasons. 1) Out of the big 3, Cap's first movie made the least amount of money, therefore The Avengers gave him more exposure the the general audience than it did for Iron Man or Thor. 2) Cap 2 has a total of 5 returning characters from The Avengers, it will be the one that most resembles The Avengers and will be the one most connected to the film. 3) By the time Cap 2 releases the hype for The Avengers 2 will have just started due to filming.

    The order the movies come out and the distance of release from the first Avengers movie doesn't matter at all, especially since people are aware that The Avengers 2 is coming. The only way the Avengers effect will wear out is if Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 are mediocre, but it doesn't look that way.
     
    #33
  9. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2004
    Messages:
    36,059
    Likes Received:
    45
    Captain America didn't make a lot of money (ideally, it should have been as bigger as Iron Man) but Chris Evans is just not a big draw.

    Harry Potter 3 was the best film in the first three movies of Harry Potter and yet it is the lowest grossing film in the series. It also suffered because of the release date. I don't see why it couldn't happen to Captain America.
     
    #34
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
  10. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2004
    Messages:
    7,142
    Likes Received:
    0
    I actually disagree. I think the fact that it isn't coming out in Summer will give it more money than it usually would have gotten.

    If you look at the month of April 2014, it's almost dead. Captain America will be #1 for at least 2-3 weeks. This is basically in the Hunger Games spot, and I'm expecting big money from it, especially if it's good. The first Captain America would've done better if it wasn't buried in a sea of similar movies fighting for the same demographic.

    July to August 2011 was an oddly competitive time in box office, with Planet of the Apes outperforming expectations.

    The film also lacked the big budget advertising push required for a true break out hit. CA: TWS will have neither of these problems against it, and with the Avengers boost that is currently seeing Iron Man match the Avengers in some foreign markets, and blow past it's predecessor, we will see Cap show similar growth.

    I'm going with

    Domestic- $200-250 M
    Foreign- $350-450 M
    Worldwide- $550-650 M

    I'll probably be adjusting that based on Iron Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World's performances. But I can't imagine 3 of the 4 stars of the biggest non-James Cameron movie of all time not receiving a huge boost in returns.
     
    #35
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2013
  11. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2003
    Messages:
    54,628
    Likes Received:
    0
    I could have sworn that Cap did better on DVD than Thor. Fast Five did over 200mil and it was released in April, I don't see why it would be impossible for Cap 2 with 3D on it's side to pull in 200mil. I'm not saying it will be easy but I'd give it a 50-50 shot if the movie is good like the first film was.
     
    #36
  12. mclay18

    mclay18 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2005
    Messages:
    11,960
    Likes Received:
    4
    Um, like Spidey said, Fast Five did huge numbers in April, and finished with $209M domestic in the bank. Marvel Studios and Disney did a smart thing by scheduling TWS for April. It has less competition there than it would in May-July 2014.

    Fast Five opened with a hefty $86M, the highest April opening weekend ever. With 3D and ticket price inflation, TWS should be able to get a similarly big weekend (if not more). It's all contingent on whether audiences embrace both IM3 and Thor 2, and keep them wanting more.
     
    #37
  13. xeno000

    xeno000 IRON MAN WAS RIGHT!

    Joined:
    May 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,438
    Likes Received:
    12
    CA: TFA sold as many BR/DVD units in its first week as Thor had sold in seven weeks of release. It was a surprisingly popular film on disk as well as a strong rental.
     
    #38
  14. kedrell

    kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2006
    Messages:
    21,383
    Likes Received:
    1
    I'm going with

    OW: 100M
    DOM: 285M
    OS: 340M
    WW: 625M
     
    #39
  15. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2003
    Messages:
    54,628
    Likes Received:
    0
    That's even better than I thought. Like I said if the sequel is good I see room for growth. If March can have films open with 70 and 150mil I think that Cap could do 85-90mil. And I'm not saying that because I was a fan of the first film.
     
    #40
  16. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    8,941
    Likes Received:
    0
    Those seem quite a bit too high to me but after IM3 maybe we're underestimating the Avengers effect...
     
    #41
  17. mclay18

    mclay18 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2005
    Messages:
    11,960
    Likes Received:
    4
    Yeah. My worldwide estimate for Captain America: The Winter Soldier is $600M, but it could go much higher than that.
     
    #42
  18. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2004
    Messages:
    36,059
    Likes Received:
    45
    It seems quite too high to me too. But we'll see if Captain America will still benefit from the Avengers effect after Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 were released in theaters.
     
    #43
  19. mclay18

    mclay18 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2005
    Messages:
    11,960
    Likes Received:
    4
    I think both this movie and Thor: The Dark World can have a $100M+ opening weekend, but the jury's out on whether either can get to $150M-$170M.

    I think Disney is going to push this movie as "Avengers 1.5", which will be easier since more Avengers stars are in this than in IM3. (As well as tie in Steve's connection to the Winter Soldier.) If TWS can deliver the goods like IM3 did, I think a $120M opening is the ceiling for this pic.
     
    #44
  20. Spider-Fan

    Spider-Fan SHHFFL 2014 Champion

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2003
    Messages:
    49,153
    Likes Received:
    145
    Right now, I like that $120 mil number. But, let's see how Thor performs. I think Cap and Thor will perform similarly in their sequel efforts.
     
    #45
  21. mkilban2

    mkilban2 family1stclothingco.com

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2012
    Messages:
    3,869
    Likes Received:
    0
    I know numbers matter a pretty decent amount in the eyes of the studios and to an extent some people in the general public who like the use them as bragging rights, but if Thor2 and Cap2 are very good movies I'm a happy camper and whatever they make, they make to me haha. Just give me quality flicks that add more depth to this phase of the MCU :)
     
    #46
  22. ctsketch

    ctsketch Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Messages:
    3,953
    Likes Received:
    0
    indeed. If Cap 2 is an awesome movie It doesn't need to break records in my eyes. just needs to be enough where they keep making more...which it will... Marvel hasn't flopped yet!
     
    #47
  23. Spider-Fan

    Spider-Fan SHHFFL 2014 Champion

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2003
    Messages:
    49,153
    Likes Received:
    145
    They matter in the sense of if/how quickly sequels happen.
     
    #48
  24. Ms. Marvel

    Ms. Marvel Screwed up Avenger

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2012
    Messages:
    4,416
    Likes Received:
    0
    Predictions make more sense after the trailer is released :p
    Not while the movie is still being filmed.
     
    #49
  25. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2004
    Messages:
    36,059
    Likes Received:
    45
    I wouldn't hold my breath for a $150 to $170 million.

    Even if Nick Fury, Black Widow and Maria Hill appears in this movie, the film still doesn't have Hulk, Thor and Iron Man. In terms of characters that appearing in TWS, Captain America is the only major draw of the film.
     
    #50
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2013
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "afb8e5d7348ab9e99f73cba908f10802"