The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[ericadawn16]

Although when discussing DVD numbers versus the other Marvel films, you also have to take into account that the credits contained the first trailer for Avengers which many wanted to watch over and over on their large screens. Some didn't even know it existed when they watched or didn't watch in the theatre.

It also had the most anticipated of the short Marvel films...A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Thor's Hammer starring the fan favorite Coulson, including him kicking butt.

But do NOT underestimate Black Widow or Winter Soldier in terms of grabbing audience especially tf they push those characters and this film during the ABC shows, Once Upon a Time and Agents of SHIELD. Most Once Upon a Time viewers tend to be huge Sebastian Stan fans. As such, I think it could definitely do $150 especially if now that people saw Avengers and saw that Captain America isn't so squeaky clean and lifeless as they might have preconceived him to be...

 

[psylockolussus]

You forgot to mention Revenge, the lead character of that show is in the movie too!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

If the trailer is as good as the IM3 trailer then it will get more interest.

$500 million
This is offensive

 

[Neno_Kos]

I voted for $600 million, but i think it can go higher.If CA:TWS have good trailer it will probably make this sum of money, specialy if they mention there will be Nick Fury, Black Widow as part of story who will be related with previous Avengers and as part for Avengers 2. This can be good publicty. But if trailer is weak i dont expect anymore then $500 million.
IM3 trailer maked at least $400 million profit more then it was expected, that is have good trailer it was. Same happening with MOS.

Cap America is not that big name to be blockbuster as Iron Man, Batman, Superman or Spiderman. Film need good interesting story and great action to at least compete with any of those, they need show that Cap is better then all of them. That he is better fighter and strategist then Batman, greater man then Superman (his ideals), he dose not need fancy armor to be superhero as Iron Man and dose not need spider-sense to defeat enemies.
If they show Cap as he really is and that he is true leader of Avengers, not Stark, movie can be big. Specialy if they make heartbreaking story about Bucky as he still trust him as his comrade and friend even if he is Winter Solider, and working for enemies.

 

[Steyin]

I'll wait to see a trailer, but as of now not much more than TFA...so about $450M WW.

 

[Xeno]

Although when discussing DVD numbers versus the other Marvel films, you also have to take into account that the credits contained the first trailer for Avengers which many wanted to watch over and over on their large screens. Some didn't even know it existed when they watched or didn't watch in the theatre.

It also had the most anticipated of the short Marvel films...A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Thor's Hammer starring the fan favorite Coulson, including him kicking butt.

But do NOT underestimate Black Widow or Winter Soldier in terms of grabbing audience especially tf they push those characters and this film during the ABC shows, Once Upon a Time and Agents of SHIELD. Most Once Upon a Time viewers tend to be huge Sebastian Stan fans. As such, I think it could definitely do $150 especially if now that people saw Avengers and saw that Captain America isn't so squeaky clean and lifeless as they might have preconceived him to be...

The DVD/BR extras probably had nothing to do with CA:TFA's sales on disk. Most people in the general public aren't even aware that those extras exist before they buy movies. A lot of fans were unaware of them, too, judging by the number of people asking how they could see the Marvel One-Shot shorts. Also, the short films were only on the Blu-Ray versions of the films, not the DVDs. People wouldn't buy CA:TFA to get something they didn't know was on the disk.

Not to mention the fact that both the short films and the Avengers promo were made available on YouTube and Vimeo in HQ format. No one had to buy the film to see those if they knew where to look.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I'll wait to see a trailer, but as of now not much more than TFA...so about $450M WW.

Wow...so how much would it have made without the Avengers effect? $400 million?

 

[Steyin]

Wow...so how much would it have made without the Avengers effect? $400 million?

I honestly don't expect TA to have that much of an effect on Cap, considering his film will be the furthest from it in terms of time of release. The hype of TA could very well wear off considerably by the time the film is out, as opposed to the rush everyone was still on when IM3 came out. Thor will benefit from it I'm sure, but not to a high extent.

Of course I could be completely wrong. TFA was my favorite of the solo Marvel films after IM1, so I hope the sequel does well. But let's face it, Cap is the weakest draw of the three solo series.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I honestly don't expect TA to have that much of an effect on Cap, considering his film will be the furthest from it in terms of time of release. The hype of TA could very well wear off considerably by the time the film is out, as opposed to the rush everyone was still on when IM3 came out. Thor will benefit from it I'm sure, but not to a high extent.

Of course I could be completely wrong. TFA was my favorite of the solo Marvel films after IM1, so I hope the sequel does well. But let's face it, Cap is the weakest draw of the three solo series.

The Avengers 2 comes out a year later though.....
And not exactly some polls show the highest anticipation for Cap 2, but that's only a small sample.

 

[fixxxer]

In my opinion estimates like $450/500 mill WW are absurd. I'd be SERIOUSLY surprised if it doesn't hit $750 mill or close.

 

[Mr. Dent]

That's a little optimistic. I think that's the best realistic case scenario but it's not so cetain that its a foregone conclusion.

 

[Steyin]

I'm a pessimist, so I prefer to go under and be happy when it is well exceeded.

 

[fixxxer]

That's a little optimistic. I think that's the best realistic case scenario but it's not so certain that its a foregone conclusion.

I really don't think so. Looking at many of these predictions, this really looks to me like a case of a pretty common cognitive bias... regressive bias to be a little more accurate.

Iron Man 3 will end up doubling Iron Man 2's WW gross shortly... or come very close at the end of it's theatrical run. If anything, people are STILL underestimating The Avengers Effect.

Double CA:TFA's gross and you're slightly south of $750 mill. While most might say that Iron Man is more popular than Captain America, and hence CA:TWS might see a less pronounced bump at the box office, I think the opposite effect could prove just as strong...

The fact that Captain America and his world was not nearly as popular as Iron Man at the time of his solo film probably means his potential for growth is that much more.

I'm sticking at $750 mill.

 

[Silvermoth]

I actually think it'll be the most critically successful of the phase 2 films, maybe even one of the most successful financially (not as much as iron man 3 though)

I have a bad feeling about Thor 2. There doesn't seem to be any promoting for that at all

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I actually think it'll be the most critically successful of the phase 2 films, maybe even one of the most successful financially (not as much as iron man 3 though)

I have a bad feeling about Thor 2. There doesn't seem to be any promoting for that at all

It has the potential to be the most critically successful due to TWS stroryline, and the great cast. t:

 

[Xeno]

I actually think it'll be the most critically successful of the phase 2 films, maybe even one of the most successful financially (not as much as iron man 3 though)

I have a bad feeling about Thor 2. There doesn't seem to be any promoting for that at all

There will be a new trailer for Thor: TDW with The Lone Ranger on July 5th, so we can expect to see it online ahead of that. You can't expect the studio to start heavily marketing a November release this far out. The first full theatrical trailer hits in a week and a half, to be followed by posters, set reports and heavier promotion as fall approaches.

 

[onyxrose81]

Yeah, it's only June. Plenty of time for promotion for Thor 2. It's not like Pacific Rim, whose promotion only just starting now in earnest and it's out in less than a month.

 

[Silvermoth]

Oops, I thought it was coming out early July

Seriously kids, don't drink and post

 

[jacobed]

This isn't going to make much. I'd say 500-600 million tops

 

[Ms. Marvel]

This isn't going to make much. I'd say 500-600 million tops

And MOS is going to make $1 billion?

Btw, can people not say "tops" anymore, because they always end up looking like fools a year later. It has happened many times. $500-600 million prediction is fine, but saying "tops"?

 

[spideymouse]

And MOS is going to make $1 billion?

Btw, can people not say "tops" anymore, because they always end up looking like fools a year later. It has happened many times. $500-600 million prediction is fine, but saying "tops"?

Isn't that the point of a prediction thread, though? People are predicting the ceiling of how this film is going to perform. Whether we're actually saying "tops" or not, we're all effectively saying "tops" by casting our votes.

Anyway, if people want to make bold, confident predictions and risk looking like fools in a year by saying "tops," I say let 'em.

 

[BlackFox]

$700million as long as Thor 2 doesnt turn out to be a stinker.

 

[MrMaooz]

450-650 for now.

 

[BigThor]

I voted for 600 million, although I won't be suprised if it does even more.

 

[Quasimod0]

I voted 700. Cap is much more popular now than when his first movie came out