The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[flickchick85]

Honestly, I think the worst case is $80-85mil. No way this opens lower than TDW. It should easily approach $100M, imo.

 

[mkilban2]

I predict it will make money. A low end of a little bit and a maximum of a lot.

 

[Mysteryman]

I would say that is a very safe prediction!

 

[psylockolussus]

I agree with the 75 mill as as a possible worst case scenario,
But I think Sony is going to make the case that ASM2 is the first big Summer movie.

Well ASM2 is being released in the 1st weekend of May, not the 1st weekend of April.

 

[Mysteryman]

Well ASM2 is being released in the 1st weekend of May, not the 1st weekend of April.

Exactly.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree with the 75 mill as as a possible worst case scenario,
But I think Sony is going to make the case that ASM2 is the first big Summer movie.

I think the Summer movie season is going to start in April this year...sorta. Sure Spidey 2 is going to be considered the kick off of the summer movie season but Thor was in 2011 and yet Fast Five had the better opening weekend and total gross when all was said and done.

If Cap 2 opens with 85-100+mil studios are going to be looking at getting things started even earlier.

 

[Mysteryman]

I wouldn't have a problem with studios starting earlier

 

[TJByrum]

I'm putting my money on 500 million.

Cap's first movie only got 300 something million, but now that more people actually know who Cap is, the fact he is an Avenger, and the fact his movie trailers look very cool, I see him gaining about 500 million, maybe 600 million.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I think the Summer movie season is going to start in April this year...sorta. Sure Spidey 2 is going to be considered the kick off of the summer movie season but Thor was in 2011 and yet Fast Five had the better opening weekend and total gross when all was said and done.

Yeah, but Fast Five opened on April 29 (which was on the cusp of the regular summer season anyway), and was a week before Thor (not a month like TWS/ASM2).

 

[eddy]

I think it'll do between 500 and 600 million worldwide. I'm hoping for 250 million domestic.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah, but Fast Five opened on April 29 (which was on the cusp of the regular summer season anyway), and was a week before Thor (not a month like TWS/ASM2).

I know that.

 

[KangConquers]

Boxoffice.com predicts an $87 M ow, and a $225 M domestic total.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Boxoffice.com predicts an $87 M ow, and a $225 M domestic total.

Would be strong. But if it is as good as it looks, I think that number will go up quite a bit.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Agreed. Exceptional reviews can make that number go way up, as well.

 

[marcvader]

Those are great numbers this far out from its premiere. Numbers tend to usually go up when its a good movie and from all indications it seems to be a really good one.

 

[Raiden]

Boxoffice.com predicts an $87 M ow, and a $225 M domestic total.

That is a nice figure, but I'm hoping it'd be around 90-100 mil OW and $300 mil domestic. If the reviews are amazing, I think it could happen.

 

[Xeno]

BO.com tends to be conservative with its predictions, so if they're saying it will do $87M OW it will most likely go higher. They're giving it a 2.6 multiplier, which sounds right. Everything depends on the breaks, at this point. The competition isn't as tough as it would have been in the summer which will give CATWS a chance thrive for at least a few weeks.

Good word of mouth from the previews can only help the film domestically. Once people take to Twitter after watching it the buzz will explode online. That could build CATWS into a mini-event as people who have heard good things rush out to see what all the fuss is about.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I think if it's as good as it looks and sounds it has a chance to hit $300m

 

[T"Challa]

If its as good as it looks, this could make close to MI-Ghost protocol numbers IMO. Seems very much in the vein of that movie

 

[FeedOnATreeFrog]

It's the big movie to kick off the summer, and it pretty much has an entire month to itself before Spider Man 2. I think it'll do pretty well.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That is a nice figure, but I'm hoping it'd be around 90-100 mil OW and $300 mil domestic. If the reviews are amazing, I think it could happen.

It wouldn't hit 300mil off of a 90-100mil opening weekend.

 

[BoredGuy]

Why not??
depends on legs, which, with a whole month to itself, Cap could easily have
animated movies do it all the time...

 

[TJByrum]

I still see this movie making 500+ million worldwide. I don't know about an opening weekend though.

CA:TFA made 175 million in America, and 370 million total (worldwide). It had a budget of 140 million, but it got that paid in America alone, so it did pretty successful.

But let's look at some factors:
-Cap wasn't known to the general audience much, but after TFA and especially after The Avengers, everyone has at least heard his name and so I'm pretty sure that has netted him some potential viewers.
-With a lot of good highlights on Anthony Mackie, they could be picking up on a the black demographic. Not being racist, but people tend to relate to characters who have similarities with him.
-With the inclusion of people like Robert Redford and Samuel L Jackson, and ScarJo, and even Anthony Mackie (who everyone tends to know), this movie has grabbed quite an attractive cast (attractive as in a good enough cast to go watch the movie).
-MARVEL was popular with Iron Man, MARVEL then grew in popularity after The Avengers, so more people probably tend to believe these movies are always going to be good, netting even more potential viewers.
-The trailers tend to be relatable to the modern-day movies we got aside from being a standard superhero film. Only real superheroing I see is the Falcon's flashy moves. Everything else looks like a war veteran taking down a terrorist organization with the help of his Russian babe.

Because of those factors (and I'm sure there's more), I see TWS making up to 500 million, perhaps 600 million but that's being generous. That's close to, what, an 80% increase from TFA?

Iron Man 3 netted over 1 billion, which is somewhere between a 90%-100% increase from IM1 and IM2.

Thor 2 netted 640 million, which is about a 50% (?) increase from his first movie, netting close to 450 million.

I ain't good with math, but I think if we look at the numbers an 80% increase from TFA isn't far-fetched to think about, especially considering those factors up above.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Why not??
depends on legs, which, with a whole month to itself, Cap could easily have
animated movies do it all the time...

I looked it up the film does not have a whole month to itself, the competition isn't out of this world heavy, which should help it, but it's not just going to skate to victory. Sequels are almost always more frontloaded than the original film. I suppose it's not impossible but it is highly unlikely that the film improves on the legs of the original. At best it matches The First Avenger legs wise or has a negligible improvement but not enough to get it to 300mil off of the opening weekends you suggest. I think it would need a 115-120mil opening to have a shot at 300mil.

 

[BoredGuy]

that would certainly help (and I would love for a $120 or higher mil opening, if those lame YA novels can do it, so can CAP!), but I'm just sayin, it ain't impossible