Captain Marvel early box office tracking.

Discussion in 'Marvel Films' started by 8ulk87, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. 8ulk87

    8ulk87 Winter is Coming

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    The movie is tracking for a $140+ mil US opening weekend.

    Opening range of $140-180 mil.
    $160 mil OW and $465 mil total.

    https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-captain-marvel/

    If it hits $450 mil in the US im pretty sure it will get to 1 billion WW. Unless China bombs like horribly which i doubt.

    Seems like the MCU is going for a back to back 3 movie $4 bil WW total.

    The HYPE is real!
     
  2. Moridin

    Moridin Death Contagious Deity

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  3. Silver Surfer

    Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    WOW, that is WOW. This is much higher than I expected. 465m total? Lord have mercy.

    I was thinking that 100m OW would be awesome, but 160m OW? that is beyond anything I could have hoped for.
     
    #3 Silver Surfer, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  4. Darkprime

    Darkprime Registered

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  5. Moridin

    Moridin Death Contagious Deity

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    ...? ...and there's already a CM box office thread there....
     
  6. Docker2.0

    Docker2.0 Watchin' you!

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    That's exactly what I said when I saw it. I don't think it makes over $400M DOM but with it being so close to EndGame, you just never know. I can see it doing WW numbers though because this is the first film.
     
  7. Mr. Forest

    Mr. Forest Registered

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    This can't be right... My sources on YouTube all keep saying no one is hyped for this movie!

    But for real, good for all those involved. I'm not very hyped for CM myself, but I am interested. I will be there opening weekend, that's for sure.
     
  8. SumT

    SumT Registered

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    To expect CM to reach 1 billion is a reach, imho.
    $700m seems a reasonable number for her first movie. I know Wonder Woman made more than 800, but that doesnt mean all female solo movies will now of a sudden make that quantity, even if its Marvel Studios.
     
  9. 8ulk87

    8ulk87 Winter is Coming

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    Yes but if it does open for lets say $150 mil in the USA it means it will hit $400 mil total.

    And im pretty sure the OS numbers with a China boost will be more than the US total.

    So if the early US OW prediction stands we re looking for a $900-1100 mil WW total.

    Its not a reach. I dont see how CM does less in OS markets since the trend for MCU films is for them to do better in OS than US with the sole exception of Black Panther due to special circumstances.
     
  10. Iceman

    Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Cap Marvel combined with EG means it’s likely going to be another amazing start to the year for the MCU in terms of box office.
     
  11. Donnell

    Donnell Registered

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    The story and effects of this movie is surreal. Pretty sure it will be a good box office movie.
     
  12. Inquirer

    Inquirer The Inquisitive Wonder

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    Perhaps $1B worldwide is now a type of norm for comic-book movies, considering the success of Aquaman. I think that so as long as any comic-book movie has a high-budget that's expressed in the form of large-scale VFX action sequences and large-scale other-worldly environments that are brought to life via amazing VFX, as well as has a larger-than-life story to accompany those characteristics, then it'll earn $1B. In Aquaman, we're introduced to a very detailed and fleshed out Atlantis, which is a huge environment and is brought to life via top-notch VFX; and in Captain Marvel, we will be introduced to the home planets of the Kree and the Skrulls, as well as the sector or sectors of space in which they're located; so, the movie is definitely going to include large-scale environments that are brought to life via top-notch VFX. And, of course, Captain Marvel will have large-scale VFX action sequences. So, I think that it'll do at least as good as Aquaman at the box office, but probably even better due to being only the second female superheroine movie of this generation and due to being backed by the power of the MCU as a brand.
     
  13. warhorse78

    warhorse78 Registered

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    Don't get too hyped. Fandango was claiming Solo; A Star Wars Story was breaking Black Panther pre-sale tickets, but in the end, the movie ended up disappointing.
     
  14. SumT

    SumT Registered

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    Captain M trailers arent really selling any new world to appeal to newcomers, so the Aquaman comparision doesnt work with this movie really.

    Aquaman, somehow, kind of gave a bit of Avatar type of vibe, in terms of marketing, a new concept/world not seen before. (tho Avatar had a lot more going on with the marketing of course)
    but CM is just looking like another Thor/Guardians type of movie, where the only new thing is the lead is female. It will be a big hit for Marvel, no doubt, but I really doubt it reaches Black Panther numbers.
     
  15. Inquirer

    Inquirer The Inquisitive Wonder

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    So, you don't agree that CM will have new environments in the form of the home worlds of the Kree and the Skrulls? We see glimpses of the former in the trailer. I think a good chunk of the movie will take place in space and on other planets.
     
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  16. 8ulk87

    8ulk87 Winter is Coming

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    I dont think it will do $1,35 billion either.

    It will probably hit the ~$850 mil mark of BvS , Spiderman HC , Thor R , GoTG 2 & Venom.

    Maybe sligthly more because of the female lead and get to 1 billion.

    I will be shocked it if does BP numbers.
     
  17. AverageMan

    AverageMan Fighting for Average men

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    I really don't sense this has $1b in it. I'm going to low ball it & say $750ish. Around Deadpool numbers.
     
  18. Abudefduf

    Abudefduf People are unnecessary

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    I seriously doubt the movie will make more than $700-750 million, which is completely fine given the budget and the, uh, "C-listness" of the main character.
     
  19. 8ulk87

    8ulk87 Winter is Coming

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    I would bet all my money that Cpt Marvel will outgross Antman & the Wasp which grossed $622,7 mil.

    $700 mil WW is the minimum for me. $300 mil from US & $400 mil in OS+China.

    Its tracking way to high to miss the $700 mil mark. The hype is real. The female lead will help like it did with Wonder Woman and in my opinion its a more marketable movie than Wonder Woman.

    Plus its a MCU film. Sure AntMan 2 didnt seem to get any real boost but i think Cpt Marvel will.

    The more i look at it the more i think its gonna end with $700-1050 mil.
     
  20. SumT

    SumT Registered

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    760-840m is my guess
     
  21. Abudefduf

    Abudefduf People are unnecessary

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    Look, no one wants this movie to be successful more than me... but I'll believe it when I see it.
     
  22. BoredGuy

    BoredGuy Chairman of the Bored

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    If it doesn't make at least as much as Venom and Aquaman, I'd be completely f**king gob-smacked

    but then again, we live in a world where those POS Transformers and Fast and the Furious movies reach $1b while Ant-Man & The Wasp only made $622m... so what do I know
     
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  23. 8ulk87

    8ulk87 Winter is Coming

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    But the last 2 Transformers movies didnt make a billion cause the previous films were mideocre or bad.

    So there is some sense in the audiences still.
     
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  24. Shuri

    Shuri Registered

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    Far from home has a lot of hype too. Will this be the year every MCU film makes a billion? I hope so.
     
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  25. Iceman

    Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    The best chance so far for sure.
     
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