Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[Blackout]

If anything I think AMWTDITW will hurt X-men more, as X-men seems to be geared at older audiences, than other CB films. Assuming that film doesn't bomb. I'm thinking it does 27M, which is way below what Ted pulled in on it's opening, but McFarlane's got a pretty big fan base.

I thought the previews were pretty funny, but some of McFarlane's stuff is getting pretty stale.

Million Ways did 891k Thursday night. Doubt it will pose much of a threat.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Everyone thinks Million ways will open number 3.

It would be kind of upsetting If maleficent overperforms projections for opening weekend
but with it's score that film could also have big drop

Malefient has a 47 percent with all critics.50 percent with top critics and 74 with audneces.

DOPF has 91 with all critics.95 with top critics and 95 with audences.

 

[narrows101]

Deadline.com:

BOX OFFICE PREVIEW: Disney’s ‘Maleficent’ Opens To Magnificent $4.2M Late Nights; Seth MacFarlane’s ‘A Million Ways To Die In The West’ Looks To Tonight’s Numbers
By ANITA BUSCH | Friday May 30, 2014

It's expected to be a big weekend at the box office for Disney's 'Maleficent' and its star Angelina Jolie. Deadline's film editor Anita Busch looks ahead at this weekend's openers, including Seth MacFarlane's 'A Million Ways To Die In The West'.

UPDATED: FRIDAY, 9:00 AM: Maleficent opened last night and conjured up a magnificent $4.2M for Disney, readying for the weekend box office blast by clearly bringing in the adult audience. It has been tracking anywhere between $60M to $70M and now you can bet on the high end (maybe $68M). Maleficent grossed above the $3.9M that Alice in Wonderland grossed in 2010 when it bowed at midnight and also the $2M gross at 9 p.m. with Oz: The Great and Powerful, which ended up with an opening weekend of $79.1M (but that was a better picture).

Disney sold the picture on a trailer that clearly made it seem too scary for small children, but the kids I was in the theater with on Wednesday night seemed to enjoy it. The five and six year olds were a bit frightened. It’s a great start to the weekend for this picture. Will be interesting to see what kind of CinemaScore it gets tonight. Right now, Disney’s in-house research shows that the film skewing 54% female and 46% male.

Still waiting to see how the Seth speaks movie plays out as well as how good a hold/how far a drop (depending on your perspective) this weekend will see for X-Men: Days of Future Past. Godzilla dropped 67% in its second weekend, X-Men: The Last Stand also dropped 67% in its sophomore frame after the Memorial Day holiday. Captain America: The Winter Soldier dropped about 51% in its second frame while ASM2 dropped 59%.

Speaking of dropping, Seth speaks … I mean A Million Ways to Die in the West … was muted in late night Thursdays (8 p.m.), making only around $891K in 2,290, according to estimates this morning. However, it’s really not a great indicator of the entire weekend … best wait to see tonight’s numbers.

Enough about Seth, what about Angie who is the most watchable character in the movie. Anecdotally, Maleficent is No. 5 behind The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, Neighbors and X-Men: Days of Future Past in terms of social media activity over the past 30 days, according to RelishMix which tracks social engagement of the Big Three (Facebook, YouTube and Twitter). “Fans are engaged with Maleficent YouTube trailers up to an earned/owned ratio of 11 to 1, showing growing intent especially for a family movie,” says RelishMix CEO Marc Karzen. On Facebook and Twitter, Angelina Jolie’s fans are looking for Brad Pitt being socked on the red carpet by the idiot, attention-seeking Ukranian.

Fandango reports that its pre-sales are outselling Maleficent producer Joe Roth’s Oz: The Great and Powerful which opened in March of last year as well as Snow White and the Huntsman (which Uni opened June 1, 2012) at the same point in the sales cycle. This looks like its gonna be two out of three for Roth so far … although Million Dollar Arm didn’t perform as anyone would have liked at Disney, Sony’s Heaven is For Real from filmmaker Randall Wallace is already up to $87.2M and still playing out. Oz: The Great and Powerful ended up with $493.3M worldwide (split pretty evenly between domestic and international) in 2013. Is it any wonder that Disney and Roth are doing a sequel?

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box...llion-ways-to-die-in-the-west-angelina-jolie/

 

[Tony Stark]

Everyone thinks Million ways will open number 3.

It would be kind of upsetting If maleficent overperforms projections for opening weekend
but with it's score that film could also have big drop

Malefient has a 47 percent with all critics.50 percent with top critics and 74 with audneces.

DOPF has 91 with all critics.95 with top critics and 95 with audences.

It will be third, but if it over performs that could hurt X-men. I expect around 25-27M, which is what most of the BO sites have it scoped at. If it gets over 30, that will be telling.

 

[Liam_H]

Why does Deadline remove Thursday previews for Cap2 and ASM2 when calculating 2nd weekend drops. They could at least do it for Godzilla too if they want to be consistent.

 

[Blackout]

In the Deadline article, they mention that Cap2 dropped 51% and ASM2 59%, those are weekly drops, not weekend. More accurately, Cap2 dropped 56.6% and ASM2 dropped 61.2%.

X-Men's drop will be larger, hopefully not by much, thanks to an inflated holiday opening.

 

[Blackout]

From BoxOffice.com:

Sources tell BoxOffice that Maleficent is trending for an opening day north of $25 million (including Thursday's night $4.2 million), which would set it in course for an excellent $80-85 million weekend.

Sources also report that A Million Ways to Die in the West may bring in around $8-10 million today for a weekend around $21-23 million.

Meanwhile, X-Men: Days of Future Past is holding up well in Friday matinees with business on track for around $15 million today. Should that figure hold, the sequel could tally for $48-50 million this weekend.

They are probably overestimating, but I don't think it will fall too much from that figure, could end up around 12 million I reckon.

 

[JP]

That sounds TOO GOOD to be true...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah I never believe numbers this early and I definitely do not believe that 15mil number for X-Men. That sounds way too high.

 

[JP]

They updated:

Sources now report that X-Men: Days of Future Past is looking closer to $43-45 million this weekend based on Friday matinee business.

 

[Electrix]

Still a good number

 

[Blackout]

That Friday matinee business must be rather strong for them to estimate like that, given how the film has ended up on lower end of predictions the past weekend. They should not be that far off IMO.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Meh, I'm not going to get my hopes up. We'll see about 7 or 8 hours from now.

 

[Blackout]

So far X-Men's matinee numbers are ahead of F6's by 32% in the same time period. Have to see what happens tonight.

By the way overseas gross seems to be around 251m already.

 

[danoyse]

The shows at the theater I went to last night were packed. I won't be surprised if we get a good weekend.

 

[HIA]

45m would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it, lol

 

[JP]

Well, I'll have my 5th viewing tomorrow. Get a scope of the Saturday afternoon crowd.

 

[marvelrobbins]

If it holds up that good 250 Million Is still possable domesticly.

It was 129 million through thursday.BOM mentioned best week for film this year.

It looks set to pass the domestic numbers for the wolverine and FC by end of weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

It would be a 200% increase over Thursday, which I don't see. I don't doubt that this is getting better WOM, so maybe 40-42 is in play, but I think Friday would probably be closer to 11M.

 

[BlackFox]

Thing is its that sort of film that sticks in your head. It makes you wonder if you saw what you thought you saw, not a film since Inception has done that to me and if a film wont leave you it encourages you to go back, no matter what genre or if your a fanboy of a series. Its a weird sort of film like that, mind you that just be my twisted mind!

 

[Tony Stark]

So far X-Men's matinee numbers are ahead of F6's by 32% in the same time period. Have to see what happens tonight.

By the way overseas gross seems to be around 251m already.

The flip side is, on BO.com they were showing that F6's demographics were about 58% under 25, where X3's are showing 58% over 25.

Younger audiences would tend to go to later shows, as opposed to matinees, so we will see if that is statistical noise, or if those numbers hold into the evening.

Just looking at the numbers, I think they are overpredicting Maleficent and DOFP, and slightly under predicting AMWTDITW.

 

[Tony Stark]

Thing is its that sort of film that sticks in your head. It makes you wonder if you saw what you thought you saw, not a film since Inception has done that to me and if a film wont leave you it encourages you to go back, no matter what genre or if your a fanboy of a series. Its a weird sort of film like that, mind you that just be my twisted mind!

I thought the same thing about the ending. Clearly the writers were inspired by Inception. The only thing I don't know, is that the ending is a bigger payoff, if you were invested in the series, and if you were as pissed off by X3 as I was.

I'm curious as to the feeling the casual fans or non fans think about the ending.

 

[Iceman]

Mid 40s would be really great. I'll be happy if it's anything above 40.

 

[Iceman]

Well, I'll have my 5th viewing tomorrow. Get a scope of the Saturday afternoon crowd.

Wow, good work!

I saw the 1st X-Men every day for the 1st week it was out but no way I could do that nowadays.

 

[Liam_H]

I just find it hard to believe its gonna be anything above $40M for this weekend.