🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[Lily Adler]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Trump: She’s not black she’s a secret white lady.

 

[Lily Adler]

Trump: She’s not black she’s a secret white lady.

It really degraded from refugees seeking asylum means they're mentally ill by comparing them to Hannibal Lecter to Hannibal Lecter is a real person...

 

[Still Wynning]

Trump: She’s not black she’s a secret white lady.

The irony of him using the theme for a movie about a ship that sinks to the bottom of the cold depths of the ocean at the very end to lie in complete ruins.

And, oh my god, his trailing off and inability to form proper thoughts is even worse than yesterday. He is absolutely deteriorating right before our very eyes quicker than I thought he would.

 

[blueharvest]

Iran increasingly cyber-meddling in upcoming US election, Microsoft says in new warning

Donald Trump, locked in a tight battle to regain the White House, appears to be the target of Iranian hacking attempts, as he was in 2020.

www.usatoday.com

 

[squeekness]

The irony of him using the theme for a movie about a ship that sinks to the bottom of the cold depths of the ocean at the very end to lie in complete ruins.

And, oh my god, his trailing off and inability to form proper thoughts is even worse than yesterday. He is absolutely deteriorating right before our very eyes quicker than I thought he would.

Hopefully the captain will go down with the ship.

 

[blueharvest]

The irony of him using the theme for a movie about a ship that sinks to the bottom of the cold depths of the ocean at the very end to lie in complete ruins.

And, oh my god, his trailing off and inability to form proper thoughts is even worse than yesterday. He is absolutely deteriorating right before our very eyes quicker than I thought he would.

Also, shouldn't the Trump campaign be receiving a Cease and Desist letter from Celine Dion's people for using her song during a rally?

 

[Still Wynning]

Also, shouldn't the Trump campaign be receiving a Cease and Desist letter from Celine Dion's people for using her song during a rally?

Hopefully she sues so she can deprive Trump of even more of what little is left of his depleting funds.

 

[Lily Adler]

Hopefully the captain will go down with the ship.

Oh I'm sure there will be nooses for Vance if he loses.

 

[blueharvest]

George Floyd's brother endorses Harris-Walz, says Minnesota governor is 'built for this'

Philonise Floyd described Walz, who was governor when his brother was murdered, as a “family man with a good heart.”

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Iceman]

Martin Luther King wishes he could get Low-Energy Don’s numbers.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Harris may need less of popular vote to win electoral college​

Such an outcome is possible if she can eke out a victory in the tipping-point state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/09/harris-popular-vote-electoral-college/

In 2020, Joe Biden won the national popular vote for president by 4.5 percentage points, a seemingly safe margin that should have easily put him in the White House. But under the hood, the presidential race was extremely close. In fact, if just 42,000 votes in three battleground states — Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — had gone differently, Biden would have lost his electoral vote majority.

To be clear, the closing Democratic margins in blue, populous states predates Harris and Biden.

Other Democrats also have recently underperformed in those states. In 2022, California Gov. Gavin Newsom won reelection by 19 percentage points, five percentage points less than in 2018 and 10 percentage points less than Biden’s margin in the state in 2020. Similarly, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul beat Republican Lee Zeldin by only 6.5 percentage points in 2022, while her immediate predecessor, Andrew M. Cuomo, won by 23 percentage points in 2018.

What does all this mean?

If these trends continue — and that’s a big if, as there is no doubt this is a close race and polls do and can change — Harris could win the presidential race without as many votes as previous Democratic nominees. That is, as long as she can eke out a victory in the tipping-point state.

 

[Iceman]

The popular vote isn’t even important to winning. It’s a loose indicator and only works well depending how correlated with the popular vote the swing state voting is. Without any big shocks in safe states the swing state voting is all that matters, and the popular vote is only important in that there’s a fair chance it can correlate to it. Winning safe states by much bigger margins improves the popular vote without tangible benefit to winning the election.

 

[blueharvest]

 

[blueharvest]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

RFK "Pro-Choice" Mailers in PA Connected to Republicans

Democrats across Pennsylvania are receiving mailers from Republicans boosting RFK's record on abortion in a misleading manner. The mailers use state party branding and popular pro-choice messaging to trick voters.

keystonenewsroom.com

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[InCali]

Latest poll shows Harris up by 4 in WI, MI, and PA. In addition, an internal repub poll supposedly shows Trump under 50% in OH.

So, here's the thing, A single poll can be wrong, but when it's backed up by a consistent pattern, it tends to indicate a poll is accurate. Also, Harris has a huge lead in Miami Dade in FL. Add to that the fact that Dems have typically over performed polling; although that w/o Trump on the ballot). I think Trump is in real trouble and some states may be in play that we didn't think would be. He has no momentum, almost no issues, and the ones he has don't seem to stick. Even the bookies are making her the favorite.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4821835-donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-nyt-poll/

 

[Sithborg]

If he is in trouble in Ohio, that is pretty much game. That means the Blue Wall holds.

 

[squeekness]

If he is in trouble in Ohio, that is pretty much game. That means the Blue Wall holds.

Yes please!!!!!

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Yeah but the OH poll could be T 49% H 41% other 3% undecided 7%. The margin matters, as does whether it's just H2H (head to head) or includes third parties, independents, and undecideds.

 

[Lily Adler]

 

[Lily Adler]

 

[mclay18]

Latest poll shows Harris up by 4 in WI, MI, and PA. In addition, an internal repub poll supposedly shows Trump under 50% in OH.

So, here's the thing, A single poll can be wrong, but when it's backed up by a consistent pattern, it tends to indicate a poll is accurate. Also, Harris has a huge lead in Miami Dade in FL. Add to that the fact that Dems have typically over performed polling; although that w/o Trump on the ballot). I think Trump is in real trouble and some states may be in play that we didn't think would be. He has no momentum, almost no issues, and the ones he has don't seem to stick. Even the bookies are making her the favorite.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4821835-donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-nyt-poll/

If FDJT loses Ohio, then Iowa is up for grabs too. I hope that horrible governor loses that R statehouse majority (or at least one house) that pushed through her culture war nonsense.

Rs need to be punished up and down the ballot.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Harris seems to be doing better in the southwest than the southeast in polling.

We should guess which state Harris will do better in: Texas or Florida.

2020: Trump 232 EVs
Iowa: 6 EVs (Trump+8.2)
Ohio: 18 EVs (Trump+8.0)
Texas: 38 EVs (Trump+5.8)
Florida: 29 EVs (Trump+3.4)
North Carolina: 15 EVs (Trump+1.3)
Georgia: 16 EVs (Biden+0.2)
Arizona: 11 EVs (Biden+0.3)
Wisconsin: 10 EVs (Biden+0.6)
Pennsylvania: 20 EVs (Biden+1.2)
Nevada: 6 EVs (Biden+2.4)
Michigan: 16 EVs (Biden+2.8)
Minnesota: 10 EVs (Biden+7.1)
New Hampshire: 4 EVs (Biden+7.4)
2020: Biden 306 EVs

What I'd want to do is at least flip North Carolina to cancel out any 16 EVs worth of losses of other states. Also some states have now gained and lost electoral votes due to the 2020 census and reapportionment, Pennsylvania has lost an EV and North Carolina has gained one going from 15 to 16.

Don't be surprised when the winning margin between Trump and Harris is either roughly equal to each other in TX/FL or smaller in Texas in 2024, unlike 2020 when Florida was a closer election than in Texas.

I have relatives in Florida and visit every few years. It's the weirdest state in the United States and the the new capital of MAGAstan as Trump/DeSantis's home state and the Democratic Party of Florida is a joke.