🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Lily Adler]

Silly Stella it's 2024!

 

[blueharvest]

Who's the idiots planning on voting for RFK Jr and Oliver?

 

[Lily Adler]

Who's the idiots planning on voting for RFK Jr and Oliver?

Defecting Trump supporters, of course.

Sad to see Cornell West has been forgotten, but glad to see Jill Stein has been forgotten.

 

[Lily Adler]

MAGA has game plan to halt elections if Harris takes lead: report

When around 14,000 Philadelphians packed Temple University's Liacouras Center for 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' first campaign rally with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the vice president made a point of describing herself as an "underdog.”Her use of that word...

www.rawstory.com

Again, Joe what's the game plan here?

 

[BatLobster]

MAGA has game plan to halt elections if Harris takes lead: report

When around 14,000 Philadelphians packed Temple University's Liacouras Center for 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' first campaign rally with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the vice president made a point of describing herself as an "underdog.”Her use of that word...

www.rawstory.com

Again, Joe what's the game plan here?

But what happens when an election official refuses to comply with a court order to certify an election? They could be removed from their position. In the 2022 midterm elections in North Carolina, two officials were removed for refusing to certify. In such cases, Karalunas emphasized, safeguards are in place. “So in the last election cycle they removed two officials that refused to certify the election,” she said. “And then there are some additional federal and state rules that allow another person to just come in and actually fulfill that legal process.”

What Happens When Election Officials Refuse to Certify Results?

What was once seen as nothing more than a procedural part of the elections process has, in the past two election cycles, evolved into something of a battlefield in the election denial movement.

www.democracydocket.com

I'm hoping this is an issue where they're overplaying their hand. But I haven't done a deep dive on what the exact rules are in each of the battleground states. I'm definitely also wanting to feel some sort of reassurance that we're preparing for how to deal with this, but at the same time it's more of a state-level issue so it's not something Biden alone can really address.

I'm also kind of hoping against hope for something game-changing like Florida or Texas going blue. I feel like the bigger the margin of victory, the harder it's going to be for them to pull whatever they're trying to pull. The even bigger concern for me is whatever violence is being planned by insurrectionists, because we know that no matter what happens the election will be called illegitimate and stolen if Kamala wins.

 

[blueharvest]

 

[Iceman]

Lazy not clever.

No imagination whatsoever. Low energy like the old Don himself.

 

[Iceman]

What Happens When Election Officials Refuse to Certify Results?

What was once seen as nothing more than a procedural part of the elections process has, in the past two election cycles, evolved into something of a battlefield in the election denial movement.

www.democracydocket.com

I'm hoping this is an issue where they're overplaying their hand. But I haven't done a deep dive on what the exact rules are in each of the battleground states. I'm definitely also wanting to feel some sort of reassurance that we're preparing for how to deal with this, but at the same time it's more of a state-level issue so it's not something Biden alone can really address.

I'm also kind of hoping against hope for something game-changing like Florida or Texas going blue. I feel like the bigger the margin of victory, the harder it's going to be for them to pull whatever they're trying to pull. The even bigger concern for me is whatever violence is being planned by insurrectionists, because we know that no matter what happens the election will be called illegitimate and stolen if Kamala wins.

I’d hope that after Jan 6, they would be a lot more prepared for the possibilities this time. Yes, could do with some unexpected states going blue which might make whatever they’re planning much less effective.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

State government buildings is what I’d keep an eye on. No sign they are anywhere as prepared as a second round inside D.C..

 

[InCali]

Okay, so.....I'm gonna do it again....so try to not let your eyes glaze over because I'm going to make this as easy to read as possible.....I know a lot of you understand this, but I'll bet some don't.

A recent poll in PA, WI, and MI showed Harris with a 4 point lead, but it was within the "margin of error". So, what is that "margin of error"? Essentially, it is a confidence level (usually 95%, but I don't know what pollsters use) within which your result is accurate (this being essentially a win or lose, binary choice). The margin of error was around 4.2% IIRC. Here's what's important about the difference in the percentage of likely voters for each candidate and the margin of error.

What this means is that there is about a 95% (or whatever confidence level has been set by the poll) chance that Harris is ahead in each state. 4% is very close to a 4.2% margin of error and, therefore. It is just as likely that she's 5 points up as there is that she's 3 points up, 6 points up as 2 points up, 7 points up as 1 point up, and so on. Each of those scenarios become less and less likely as you deviate more and more from the poll result.

I won't go into the exact math, but it means that the likelihood of Harris being ahead in ALL 3 polls at this point in time, is probably about 3 in 4.

If the polls weren't random, forget what I just said.

 

[Boom]

What Happens When Election Officials Refuse to Certify Results?

What was once seen as nothing more than a procedural part of the elections process has, in the past two election cycles, evolved into something of a battlefield in the election denial movement.

www.democracydocket.com

I'm hoping this is an issue where they're overplaying their hand. But I haven't done a deep dive on what the exact rules are in each of the battleground states. I'm definitely also wanting to feel some sort of reassurance that we're preparing for how to deal with this, but at the same time it's more of a state-level issue so it's not something Biden alone can really address.

I'm also kind of hoping against hope for something game-changing like Florida or Texas going blue. I feel like the bigger the margin of victory, the harder it's going to be for them to pull whatever they're trying to pull. The even bigger concern for me is whatever violence is being planned by insurrectionists, because we know that no matter what happens the election will be called illegitimate and stolen if Kamala wins.

Yeah. Not only does she need to win AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA handedly, but she also needs to pull an upset somewhere else. I'm not bullish on FL or TX, but maybe NC, OH or even IN?

It's obvious enough that ****'s gonna hit the fan in GA at the very least. If that's the deciding state then we are in trouble. If she's got him beat by two or three states, now there's some breathing room.

 

[Still Wynning]

I'm not bullish on FL or TX

I’d like to see my state flip just to see all of the MAGA nuts lose bragging rights over being a red state and have complete meltdowns.

 

[InCali]

Yeah. Not only does she need to win AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA handedly, but she also needs to pull an upset somewhere else. I'm not bullish on FL or TX, but maybe NC, OH or even IN?

It's obvious enough that ****'s gonna hit the fan in GA at the very least. If that's the deciding state then we are in trouble. If she's got him beat by two or three states, now there's some breathing room.

If she can take WI, MI, and PA, it's basically a done deal. If you look at the map below, you'll see that Trump could then sweep NV, AZ, NC, and GA (very unlikely), and still lose. Also, none of the states Harris would win in this scenario will be pulling some of the shenanigans we saw last time (well....prolly not).

It's all numbers. Trump HAS to take one of WI, MI, or PA (preferably PA) AND hold basically all of the toss up states (some of which are leaning blue).

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Boom]

If she can take WI, MI, and PA, it's basically a done deal. If you look at the map below, you'll see that Trump could then sweep NV, AZ, NC, and GA (very unlikely), and still lose. Also, none of the states Harris would win in this scenario will be pulling some of the shenanigans we saw last time (well....prolly not).

It's all numbers. Trump HAS to take one of WI, MI, or PA (preferably PA) AND hold basically all of the toss up states (some of which are leaning blue).

View attachment 100003

But see in that scenario I could see the GOP fighting tooth and nail to pull shenanigans in NE.

I appreciate the simple truth of your post and it offers some degree of reassurance. But I would sleep a lot better in November if she won with 300+ EVs. Don't let a possible overturn in one state be the deciding factor.

 

[InCali]

But see in that scenario I could see the GOP fighting tool and nail to pull shenanigans in NE.

I appreciate the simple truth of your post and it offers some degree of reassurance. But I would sleep a lot better in November if she won with 300+ EVs. Don't let a possible overturn in one state be the deciding factor.

There are some scenarios that would have me sleeping a lot better too, but the NE and ME electoral votes would be very, VERY difficult to overturn. Plus, Biden/Harris are in the WH and pushing them out over some BS quirk would be far more difficult that if they were out of office. Sure, take AZ or NV (most likely) and virtually any doubt goes away. Bottom line is that Trump has to break the blue wall.

 

[Iceman]

Is it better for the Dems now if RFK stays? With Kamala rather than Biden now it feels like he’d pull more votes from Trump rather than Harris.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

There’s also the X factor of Kennedy quitting the race at any time and endorsing Trump.

 

[InCali]

Is it better for the Dems now if RFK stays? With Kamala rather than Biden now it feels like he’d pull more votes from Trump rather than Harris.

IMO, it's better for Harris if he's in. He seems to be pulling more Trump votes than Harris votes because, well, he's crazy too. I suspect he'll drop out with the idea it'll help Trump.

 

[InCali]

I mean, the dude had a worm in his head that ate part of his brain and died. Then he found a dead bear cub on the side of the road and then left it in Central Park....who the hell do you think his supporters have as their #2? I don't even need a poll for that one.....

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Let’s go Harris / Walz | Gallego!

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

3 months happens in 3 weeks.

 

[Lily Adler]

3 months happens in 3 weeks.

Why are we not naming Jesse Waters for the "voting for a woman makes you trans" ****?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster.

Donald Trump's campaign took another hit with a disastrous, glitchy X interview with Elon Musk that left many wondering if the former president is OK.

www.usatoday.com

Delulu Don