🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[MagnarTheGreat]

Trump: America sucks except when I rule it as a dictator.

Republicans’ Closing Message: We Lie to You

Fear wasn’t enough, so they are campaigning on falsehoods.

www.thebulwark.com

"Auto Workers for Trump" admit they aren't actually autoworkers

Those wearing T-shirts at a rally in Michigan said they were handed the merchandise by the leader of a group opposing the United Auto Workers union.

www.newsweek.com

 

[InCali]

Trump: America sucks except when I rule it as a dictator.

Republicans’ Closing Message: We Lie to You

Fear wasn’t enough, so they are campaigning on falsehoods.

www.thebulwark.com

My personal opinion is that Clinton was responsible for her loss by basically ignoring working class and rural people in the blue wall and focusing her campaign in the wrong spots. Biden pointed this out early on and was dead-bang-on-correct.

While Stein may even be worse than I think she is, not everyone who voted for her would have voted for Clinton. As I'm looking at the numbers, I think she might have made a difference in MI, maybe WI, probably not in PA.

Clinton dug her own grave and took too many people for granted. Had that not happened, the entire trajectory of Trumpism might have been changed.

It's all speculation, but makes sense to me.

 

[Lily Adler]

Trump: America sucks except when I rule it as a dictator.

Republicans’ Closing Message: We Lie to You

Fear wasn’t enough, so they are campaigning on falsehoods.

www.thebulwark.com

"Auto Workers for Trump" admit they aren't actually autoworkers

Those wearing T-shirts at a rally in Michigan said they were handed the merchandise by the leader of a group opposing the United Auto Workers union.

www.newsweek.com

Let's not discount Hillary being altogether a horrible candidate to begin with who ran on a wafer thin campaign that relied greatly on her being first woman president.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

"War with Ukraine" Trump identifies himself with Putin and the Russian army.

He intends to give Ukraine away to Russia. Poland and Germany could be next.

 

[InCali]

While it's an understatement to say Clinton wasn't the most popular candidate to ever grace an election, the presidency was hers to lose.....and she lost it. In terms of policy knowledge, she could obviously run rings about Trump, but her election strategy was pathetic and probably driven by arrogance. Harris is clearly not making the Clinton mistake.

 

[blueharvest]

EXCLUSIVE: Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

Republican and independent backers of the former U.N. ambassador are far more open to voting Democratic than four years ago.

www.thebulwark.com

 

[blueharvest]

Don't count on a recount to change the winner in close elections this fall. They rarely do

With the American electorate so evenly divided, there will be elections in November so close that officials will have to recount the votes

abcnews.go.com

 

[squeekness]

EXCLUSIVE: Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

Republican and independent backers of the former U.N. ambassador are far more open to voting Democratic than four years ago.

www.thebulwark.com

Everybody is sick of the crazy.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

ABC's FiveThirtyEight opinion polling averages:

October 9, 2024 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 47.0% (D+1.6)
Republicans 45.4%
other/undecided 7.6%

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight averages:

October 9, 2022 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 45.4% (D+0.9)
Republicans 44.5%
other/undecided 10.1%

October 9, 2020 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.3% (D+6.5)
Republicans 42.8%
other/undecided 7.9%

October 9, 2018 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.5% (D+8.2)
Republicans 41.3%
other/undecided 9.2%

Actual election final results

2024: TBD
2022: Republicans 50.0% (R+2.7)
2020: Democrats 50.3% (D+3.0)
2018: Democrats 52.9% (D+8.6)

Every October in the past Republicans - including Trump - get a polling bump upward so prepare yourselves because it could happen again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Harris peaked in their average at 47.3% and at 3.7 points above Trump on August 23. She now leads Trump by 2.5 points at 48.4%. The bad news is Clinton (D+5.1) and Biden (D+10.1) were polling better in the margin lead than Harris is at this point in October 2016 and 2020.

Elections (President)​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Final FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Final FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Actual Results (D%)​	Actual Results (D margin lead)​
​ 2024​	48.4%​	+2.5​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​
​ 2020​	52.1%​	+10.1​	51.8%​	+8.4​	51.3%​	+4.5​
​ 2016​	44.8%​	+5.1​	45.7%​	+3.9​	48.0%​	+2.1​
Avg. (2016-2020)​	48.5%​	+7.6​	48.8%​	+6.2​	49.7%​	+3.3​

 

[blueharvest]

The presidential campaigns have made over 200 visits but speak to just a fraction of American voters

The nation's unique Electoral College system for electing a president, which replaces the popular vote, puts disproportionate voting power in the hands of a relative few states.

apnews.com

 

[blueharvest]

Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in the race's final stretch

Donald Trump is returning to New York in the race’s final stretch and will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden.

apnews.com

 

[blueharvest]

How elections forecasters became political 'prophets'

Before there was a FiveThirtyEight model or a New York Times election night needle, there was an economist named Louis Bean.

apnews.com

 

[Sithborg]

Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in the race's final stretch

Donald Trump is returning to New York in the race’s final stretch and will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden.

apnews.com

There has to be a grift somewhere. No way he can even come close to filling it, even if were in a deep red area.

 

[blueharvest]

There has to be a grift somewhere. No way he can even come close to filling it, even if were in a deep red area.

He definitely didn't fill up the venue he was at last night:

 

[blueharvest]

 

[Sithborg]

ABC's FiveThirtyEight opinion polling averages:

October 9, 2024 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 47.0% (D+1.6)
Republicans 45.4%
other/undecided 7.6%

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight averages:

October 9, 2022 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 45.4% (D+0.9)
Republicans 44.5%
other/undecided 10.1%

October 9, 2020 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.3% (D+6.5)
Republicans 42.8%
other/undecided 7.9%

October 9, 2018 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.5% (D+8.2)
Republicans 41.3%
other/undecided 9.2%

Actual election final results

2024: TBD
2022: Republicans 50.0% (R+2.7)
2020: Democrats 50.3% (D+3.0)
2018: Democrats 52.9% (D+8.6)

Every October in the past Republicans - including Trump - get a polling bump upward so prepare yourselves because it could happen again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Harris peaked in their average at 47.3% and at 3.7 points above Trump on August 23. She now leads Trump by 2.5 points at 48.4%. The bad news is Clinton (D+5.1) and Biden (D+10.1) were polling better in the margin lead than Harris is at this point in October 2016 and 2020.

Elections (President)​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Final FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Final FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Actual Results (D%)​	Actual Results (D margin lead)​
​ 2024​	48.4%​	+2.5​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​
​ 2020​	52.1%​	+10.1​	51.8%​	+8.4​	51.3%​	+4.5​
​ 2016​	44.8%​	+5.1​	45.7%​	+3.9​	48.0%​	+2.1​
Avg. (2016-2020)​	48.5%​	+7.6​	48.8%​	+6.2​	49.7%​	+3.3​

Polling averages are not great, because we know a lot of bad republican ones are used. There also seems to be some self correcting so not to be embarrassed like they were in 2016. Generic congressional ballots are bull****, though. If that was what the average of the generic congressional, why was everyone talking about a red wave until election night. Frankly, post Dobbs, there is enough weirdness going on, I'm not sure polls are correcting fast enough. Or that they want to.

 

[blueharvest]

Trump 'Bidenomics' ad shows a Philly-area mom who really supports Kamala Harris | Helen Ubiñas

Kimberly Burrell took part in an MSNBC group interview about gun violence after losing her son. She was shocked to see her comments about inflation appear in a Donald Trump ad attacking Kamala Harris.

www.inquirer.com

 

[blueharvest]

Daughters to dads who support Trump: ‘You chose him over me’

Trump has been trying to thread a divide between his own base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans.

www.nj.com

 

[Moncton]

While it's an understatement to say Clinton wasn't the most popular candidate to ever grace an election, the presidency was hers to lose.....and she lost it. In terms of policy knowledge, she could obviously run rings about Trump, but her election strategy was pathetic and probably driven by arrogance. Harris is clearly not making the Clinton mistake.

She may not be making the same mistakes as Clinton, but I think her strategy of trying to overly appeal to old Republicans might backfire as it just makes her seem like your typical establishment candidate. She had a lot of enthusiasm when she picked a progressive in Walz and when they went with the other side is weird attack. I think she runs the risk of not having great appeal to anyone by trying to appeal to everyone.

 

[blueharvest]

Extremist who trained GOP poll workers will speak at Washington event with two rightwingers

Steve Sailer to appear alongside a ‘proponent of scientific racism’ and a law professor suspended for ‘racist’ remarks

www.theguardian.com

 

[InCali]

She may not be making the same mistakes as Clinton, but I think her strategy of trying to overly appeal to old Republicans might backfire as it just makes her seem like your typical establishment candidate. She had a lot of enthusiasm when she picked a progressive in Walz and when they went with the other side is weird attack. I think she runs the risk of not having great appeal to anyone by trying to appeal to everyone.

That's something every campaign faces. The same could be said about Trump with his wishy washy, and changing, stance on abortion. He knows what he did is broadly unpopular and is trying to backtrack. I big chunk of his traditional support is staunchly pro-life and could end up abandoning him to some extent.

WRT Kamala's campaign, I don't "think" this is the case among a large group of people. Her economic platform, in particular, benefit young families and, while I haven't seen the polls, are probably broadly popular. My guess would be that the vast majority of people left of center understand there is a very stark choice in this election and unless they take a "burn it down" approach, they'll end up casting a ballot for Harris. Maybe I'm just projecting, but I'm so far to the left of Harris, she'd have to pull a Linda Blair Exorcist move in order to even see me, and I voted for her the first day my mail in ballot came.

 

[blueharvest]

Harris campaign office in Arizona shot at for third time in a month, police say

An office shared by Kamala Harris' campaign and the Democratic Party in Tempe, Arizona, was again the target of gunfire.

abcnews.go.com

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Donald Trump says Project 2025 author "coming on board" if elected

Tom Homan, a Project 2025 contributor, served as the acting director of ICE during the Trump administration.

www.newsweek.com

 

[blueharvest]