🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

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Crazy how Predictit.org and Polymarkets show Trump winning…. These next few weeks are gonna be so interesting to watch. I do feel that Kamala has lost her momentum and Trump seems to have found a surge.
 
Crazy how Predictit.org and Polymarkets show Trump winning…. These next few weeks are gonna be so interesting to watch. I do feel that Kamala has lost her momentum and Trump seems to have found a surge.
Yeah, the Eating Cats and Dogs craziness worked, unfortunately
It got people to start talking about Trump and pretty much only Trump again, which was the plan from the start

The best thing Harris had going before the debate, was that the narrative was fixed on her, and largely ignoring that orange sack of s***
 
In rural America the 1840s never ended and they never took the Trump signs down since 2016.
 
I have no real faith in polls to be honest, they are a nice gauge but to take them as the gospel i simply cant.
 
Yeah, the Eating Cats and Dogs craziness worked, unfortunately
It got people to start talking about Trump and pretty much only Trump again, which was the plan from the start

The best thing Harris had going before the debate, was that the narrative was fixed on her, and largely ignoring that orange sack of s***
It only worked for a relatively small segment of the population and very, very few were going to vote for Harris before his statement. His delivery didn't help, but I think most people thought it was nuts.
 

Harris (49%) tops Trump (45%) by 4 points in new national poll​



Likely voters | full field
Harris +4

Exclusive: Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows​


  • Harris leads Trump among suburban voters by 47% to 41%
  • Harris gains support from middle-income households, now leading Trump 45% to 43%
  • Harris' modest national lead significant but battleground states remain crucial
 
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I am at the point in my life where elections are concerned that i really want the electoral college to just go away, i get why it was put in place back in the early days of our country to give small states an equal footing with larger states, but the was the original 13 colonies, no election as been close enough to require the electorial college where the popular vote is concerned, besides most states no longer matter anyway where the college is concerned, most only have less than 5 or so, so whatever the original intent was is all but muet, it should be decided by popular vote, and why even keep track of popular vote if it doesnt matter in outcome.
 
I am at the point in my life where elections are concerned that i really want the electoral college to just go away, i get why it was put in place back in the early days of our country to give small states an equal footing with larger states, but the was the original 13 colonies, no election as been close enough to require the electorial college where the popular vote is concerned, besides most states no longer matter anyway where the college is concerned, most only have less than 5 or so, so whatever the original intent was is all but muet, it should be decided by popular vote, and why even keep track of popular vote if it doesnt matter in outcome.
Add the senate to your list. It's absurd that North and South Dakota have the same number of senators as does California and NY. AND, it's equally absurd that Vermont and Delaware have the same number as Florida and Texas, but overall, small, red states have WAY more influence than they should.
 
I really do wish they get rid of the electoral college… maybe not in my lifetime but hopefully in my future kids lifetime
 
This was a very close race, as Hopkins only won by 154 votes. It was also for borough mayor (the equivalent of county executive), and Hopkin's father also held this office so legacy might've played a part in the result. Fairbanks may be the second largest city in Alaska, but the surrounding area is only around 70,000 people, and the conservative areas of the state have higher populations.

Suffice it to say, I don't foresee Trump losing here. Even Rep. Peltola's incumbency is not helping her, and I wouldn't be surprised if that race is also extremely close.
 
I "may" be the only one, but I found this fascinating. Perhaps the statement I most agree with (because I made it earlier) and found hilarious was

9) A very specific subset of “undecided voters” who are, politely speaking, morons who do not understand the stakes of this election and/or what might happen to them and the people they care about if the Trump Reich comes to pass.

:funny:
 
Exit Polls:

2020 (Trump Incumbency) - Decided on presidential vote:
15,590 total respondents
In the last few days
3%
In the last week
2%
In October
8%
In September
11%
Before that
73%

Biden
49%31%48%52%51%

Trump
47%64%49%45%48%

2016 (Open Presidency) - When did you decide presidential vote?

ClintonTrumpOther/No Answer
Last few days
8%
43%43%14%
Last week
5%
41%49%10%
In October
12%
37%51%12%
In September
12%
46%48%6%
Before September
60%
52%45%3%

13% of voters made up their minds in October/November for 2020.
25% of voters made up their minds in October/November for 2016.
 
Simon Rosenberg (link): "As polling community preps for home stretch hope they will note that Ds are, so far, outperforming 2020 in the early vote, suggesting our team has more intensity now. It's even more pronounced in the Presidential battlegrounds. Here's the latest natl data, via TargetEarly:

GZjvxKSWYAElg-E.png
"

Change from 2020 to 2024
Democrats -3,257,553
Republicans -2,235,445
Independents -839,277
Total -6,332,275

Despite Rosenberg's hopium, early turnout is way way down from 2020 (turnout 66.6%, D+3.0 House lead) and that is concerning. That similar level of turnout in 2024 is why Democrats lost the House in 2022 (turnout 46.6%, R+2.7 House lead). Granted, slightly more people may vote in-person on election day since 2020 was Covid19 early era. What this tells me is there is more of a lack of enthusiasm to vote in 2024 - for either candidate - than there was in 2020 even accounting for that.
 
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Remember, after 2020 a lot of states cracked down on early voting access. There are limits to looking at pure numbers without the broader context of reality. Too many pollsters don't want to underestimate Trump again, and when combined with the right wing flooding polls, the polling average isn't great.
 
Some Republicans in PA are suing to block the votes of military personnel from being counted:


The Supreme Court of PA have recently already ruled it’s too late to change the rules and two, it’s a disgusting ask of a court’s time to petition this.
 

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