🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

[blueharvest]

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Obama, in blunt terms, tells Black men to get over their reluctance to support Harris​

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/g-s1-27633/barack-obama-kamala-harris-black-men-pennsylvania

Don’t let Trump who was against the exonerated Central Park Five and George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter protests back into the people’s house ever again.

‘I’m not afraid of women’: New campaign takes on the Trump-obsessed manosphere​

Not controlling women is the manliest thing a man can do, says a new grassroots campaign from Creatives for Harris.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91206509/grassroots-harris-ad-campaign-takes-on-trump-obsessed-manosphere

It's a waste of time trying to flip the manosphere. They're long gone.

They're just going to double down.

 

[blueharvest]

It's a waste of time trying to flip the manosphere. They're long gone.

They're just going to double down.

Yeah, people who watch too much Conservative media or listen to people like Andrew Tate all the time are already too far gone, unfortunately.

 

[Moncton]

It's a waste of time trying to flip the manosphere. They're long gone.

They're just going to double down.

Yup, I don't understand this obsession with trying to appeal to Cheney fans and now this, present ideas for middle class workers and that combined with the fact that you are not nuts will have greater appeal than whatever strategy this is

 

[blueharvest]

Lawmakers on both sides vow to stop Trump from changing base names to Confederates

Former president says renaming military installation is ‘secret to winning absolutely and by massive margins’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Lily Adler]

Yup, I don't understand this obsession with trying to appeal to Cheney fans and now this, present ideas for middle class workers and that combined with the fact that you are not nuts will have greater appeal than whatever strategy this is

Dick Cheney is the most amazing people that have invaded Iraq in the name of Halliburton, I tell you what.

 

[blueharvest]

Kamala Harris to release health report saying she is fit for presidency – aide

Vice-president’s advisers see release of her medical history as chance to highlight questions around Donald Trump’s physical fitness and mental acuity

www.theguardian.com

 

[blueharvest]

Could Trump Win? Yes, and Some Dems Are Quietly Saying They Know Why

Insiders are raising some tough questions about the strategic decisions made by Future Forward, the biggest Super PAC pulling for Kamala Harris.

newrepublic.com

 

[mclay18]

Back in 2022, we had a lot of bad right wing polling saying there would be a red wave (which was a lie). The EXACT SAME ONES are pushing this “Trump’s ahead” BS this year.

Ignore the polling and GOTV and donate as much as you can.

 

[blueharvest]

'Sleeper agent' bots on X fuel US election misinformation, study says

Hundreds of apparent pro-Russian bot accounts on X are pushing US election misinformation and amplifying false narratives about Democratic contender Kamala Harris, a research group said Thursday, calling…

www.france24.com

 

[blueharvest]

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[blueharvest]

 

[mclay18]

Copeland, Osteen, Meyer and Mark Harris are the reasons I left that “born again” BS.

On a lighter note…

https://fox8.com/news/majority-of-ohio-voters-favor-issue-1-redistricting-amendment-poll-shows/

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Trump outpaces Harris and Walz in campaign events in run-up to final stretch of 2024 election cycle

Donald Trump has single handedly outpaced both Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz in campaign events for the month of September.

abcnews.go.com

ABC's FiveThirtyEight opinion polling averages:

October 9, 2024 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 47.0% (D+1.6)
Republicans 45.4%
other/undecided 7.6%

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight averages:

October 9, 2022 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 45.4% (D+0.9)
Republicans 44.5%
other/undecided 10.1%

October 9, 2020 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.3% (D+6.5)
Republicans 42.8%
other/undecided 7.9%

October 9, 2018 Generic Ballot for Congress
Democrats 49.5% (D+8.2)
Republicans 41.3%
other/undecided 9.2%

Actual election final results

2024: TBD
2022: Republicans 50.0% (R+2.7)
2020: Democrats 50.3% (D+3.0)
2018: Democrats 52.9% (D+8.6)

Every October in the past Republicans - including Trump - get a polling bump upward so prepare yourselves because it could happen again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Harris peaked in their average at 47.3% and at 3.7 points above Trump on August 23. She now leads Trump by 2.5 points at 48.4%. The bad news is Clinton (D+5.1) and Biden (D+10.1) were polling better in the margin lead than Harris is at this point in October 2016 and 2020.

Elections (President)​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Oct. 9 FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Final FiveThirtyEight D avg.​	Final FiveThirtyEight D margin​	Actual Results (D%)​	Actual Results (D margin lead)​
​ 2024​	48.4%​	+2.5​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​	TBD​
​ 2020​	52.1%​	+10.1​	51.8%​	+8.4​	51.3%​	+4.5​
​ 2016​	44.8%​	+5.1​	45.7%​	+3.9​	48.0%​	+2.1​
Avg. (2016-2020)​	48.5%​	+7.6​	48.8%​	+6.2​	49.7%​	+3.3​

Trump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden

Donald Trump trails Kamala Harris in most 2024 polls. But the margin now is smaller than he faced in his first two general elections in 2016 and 2020.

www.yahoo.com

Harris’s polling percentage is worse than Biden 2020 and better than Clinton 2016, but the margin is worse than both, and Trump is polling better now than he ever in previous elections in both percentage and margin.

Republican pollsters are definitely flooding the averages though much like 2022 in states like Pennsylvania where the 2022 averages were way off by 5 points and underestimated Democrats Fetterman and Shapiro.

Fetterman now has a ~5 point lead in the PA Senate election. Shapiro is at a ~15 point lead for governor. Laugh at how off the state polls were this year once again, especially with all these Republican firms posing as pollsters. Whether their problem was relying too much on polling online, landlines not cell phones, an inadequate rolodex of voters, young voters not answering unknown callers, not polling in Spanish, and other issues there was an error of missing about 5 points for the Democrats.

FiveThirtyEight - Pennsylvania : U.S. Senate : 2022 Polls (Oz +0.5)
FiveThirtyEight - Pennsylvania : Governor : 2022 Polls (Shapiro +10.4)

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[blueharvest]

Democratic campaign office in Arizona closes down after being shot at 3 times in 3 weeks

The Arizona Democratic party closed a field office in Tempe after it was shot at three times in three weeks.

www.usatoday.com

 

[blueharvest]

Elon Musk is obsessed with delivering Pennsylvania for Donald Trump. Here’s what he’s doing.

From setting up a "war room" in Pittsburgh to giving financial incentives for swing state voters from his super PAC, Elon Musk is relentlessly campaigning for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.

www.inquirer.com

 

[InCali]

It's a waste of time trying to flip the manosphere. They're long gone.

They're just going to double down.

I don't think this is about getting large groups of people to flip. I think what you do is go after every demographic you can isolate, target a message to them, and peel off a few. They all add up.

 

[blueharvest]

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think this is about getting large groups of people to flip. I think what you do is go after every demographic you can isolate, target a message to them, and peel off a few. They all add up.

I've debated these people in the past. It's like talking to a brick wall.

To them Kamala is worse than Hillary.

I think peeling moderates and swing voters by pointing out that Republicans blocked iincreasing the minimum wage, disaster relief, child tax credits, voting rights, immigration reform, cannabis legalization, etc. would be more effective

 

[blueharvest]

Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’

Republicans did this in 2022

www.nj.com

 

[Mike5575]

I don't think this is about getting large groups of people to flip. I think what you do is go after every demographic you can isolate, target a message to them, and peel off a few. They all add up.

Agreed. This a very close election. Just a few thousand votes in a couple of swing states could decide the election. We need all hands on deck for this one.

 

[InCali]

I've debated these people in the past. It's like talking to a brick wall.

To them Kamala is worse than Hillary.

I think peeling moderates and swing voters by pointing out that Republicans blocked iincreasing the minimum wage, disaster relief, child tax credits, voting rights, immigration reform, cannabis legalization, etc. would be more effective

That message is being delivered also and, I agree, it's more effective than trying to lecture someone into voting a certain way, but if you can peel off even 5% (1 out of 20) in several groups, that adds up. Obama does have a certain level of influence and every vote is important......maybe not in California where I live, but in other states....

 

[blueharvest]