🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

US News
Always going to rural diners but not the cities the media just can’t help themselves as they seek out Republican opinion every election but not others.



www.rollingstone.com

Republicans Tell Trump That Elon Musk's Super PAC Is Blowing It

Donald Trump’s allies have been warning him that Musk’s field operation is failing in key states — and that it’s being led by DeSantis’ failed team.
www.rollingstone.com www.rollingstone.com
 
Superhero 101 said:
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
These early turnout figures if accurate are crappy.

Simon Rosenberg: “We have more money and a stronger grassroots operation. We should be able to close stronger than them in the home stretch. Early early vote data is encouraging. Here's what we are seeing in the 7 battleground states so far, via TargetEarly:

1729106095766.png“

October 16
2020 D+13.4
2022 D+30.1
2024 D+27.6

Democrats won big in PA and lost big in FL in 2022.
 
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MagnarTheGreat said:
These early turnout figures if accurate are crappy.

Simon Rosenberg: “We have more money and a stronger grassroots operation. We should be able to close stronger than them in the home stretch. Early early vote data is encouraging. Here's what we are seeing in the 7 battleground states so far, via TargetEarly:

View attachment 107641“

October 16
2020 D+13.4
2022 D+30.1
2024 D+27.6

Democrats won big in PA and lost big in FL in 2022.
Click to expand...

I still wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss FL. I would look at early in person voting (which starts Monday). If a lot of Dems are moving from VBM to early voting and there’s big turnout in the Sunshine State like in GA… who wins could be anyone’s guess.
 
Yeah, that I think is going to be the big takeaway of the election. Harris won't build on Biden's vote totals. But Trump is going to lose a ton of votes. I will take it.
 
Sithborg said:
Yeah, that I think is going to be the big takeaway of the election. Harris won't build on Biden's vote totals. But Trump is going to lose a ton of votes. I will take it.
Click to expand...

I would love to see enough Republicans stay home and not vote this year, enough to break R state supermajorities in red states or even flip.
 
squeekness said:
If she raised all this money and still loses it will be a huge waste of money, geez..
Click to expand...

Definitely. Honestly, I would lose what little faith I have left in this country if Trump still ends up (fairly) winning this election. What's worse is that Vance would be left in charge of the country if Trump were to be incapacitated during his 4-year term.
 
Bad turnout (or bad polling samples within) in the biggest population states like CA and NY and IL can drag down the national popular vote for Democrats even if the median battleground states are 'okay'.

In 2020 Fox way overestimated Biden's margin by underestimating Trump so I wonder if they overadjusted this time around.

Fox 2020:
poll1.jpg


Final election result: Biden 51%, Trump 47% (Biden +4)
 
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2024 early vote tracking projects:

» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu election.lab.ufl.edu
targetearly.targetsmart.com

TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard

Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates.
targetearly.targetsmart.com targetearly.targetsmart.com


Shannon Watts: “I think there’s a silent group of women who will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump and who will quietly vote for Harris,” Former GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock https://t.co/CXgKHaq7Zl"
 
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I wasn’t able to catch the Fox interview with Harris how did she do what’s the overall consensus?
 
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