a. In 2008, Russia militarily annexed the two ethnic Russian states of Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, constituting a substantial grab of Georgian territory. The West responded with sanctions, but as crude oil at all-time high of $145 a barrel in July 2008, these sanctions had little impact. (The Russian economy is to a very significant extent reliant upon oil.)
b. Oil prices go down
because of shale oil
c. Russians become unhappy as the price of everything goes up as oil was propping up economy.
d. Russian President Vladimir Putin says this drop in the oil is a Western conspiracy,
aided by the Saudis. This coincided with increased Russian air force buzzing of Western allies as
reported in 2011.
e. Russia distracts its citizens with an invasion of Ukraine and in July 2014 a Russian missile shoots down a Malaysian passenger jet killing all occupants. NATO fails to challenge any of this militarily. However, by December 2014 Ukraine entered into cooperation agreement with NATO.
g. Oil prices continue to spiral. By June 2014 the price of oil had fallen to $115 a barrel. But by February 2015, oil had plummeted to $35 a barrel. In addition, Western sanctions over Ukraine and the destruction of the Malaysian commercial jet start to bite. This includes Russian companies losing access to Western credit, and thereby unable to refinance debt.
h. Russia again distracts its citizens from financial woes through the support of the Syrian regime in its civil war. Russia refuses to engage in airspace protocol with Western combat aircraft also operating in Syria, in October 2015.
i. In November 2015, Turkey shoots down a Russian military jet. Russians are very unhappy about this, and the Russian government installs heavy duty SAMs and Krashuka-4 platform (advanced jammer) in northern Syria.
j. In March 2016, Russia declared that it was pulling out of Syria – except of course
it did not.
k. By February 2016, the Syrian war is
very popular in Russia.
l. In April 2016, US special forces numbers dramatically increase in order to assist anti-Assad forces, and Russian jets conducted mock bombing runs, captured on video, over the guided missile destroyer USS Donald Cook, and then another Russian jet conducted a barrel roll over a US reconnaissance plane,
both in the Baltic Sea.
m. By September 2016 Russian hackers are accused of interfering in US elections. In the meantime, Western sanctions are extended. More individuals are subject to asset freezes and travel bans, and Gazprom subsidiaries are directly targeted by sanctions. These sanctions bite very hard.
n. As at October 2016, crude oil currently at $50 a barrel, a very poor price – indeed, the international oil cartel, OPEC, have agreed to slow production in order to lift prices. Russia starts talking about direct war with the West in Russian media. There are Russian military drills on Ukrainian border. US policymakers distracted by election and US lawmakers in bipartisan deadlock.
