Do good release dates still matter?

[mclay18]

I'm looking at various CBM and non-CBM movies over the years. Some had perfect release dates (but didn't deliver like BvS and Dark Phoenix), while others did well in crowded corridors but could've done better outside summer (MOS). Others like Deadpool, Black Panther and Joker tried non-traditional months (February, October) and ended up surpassing all expectations.

Disney/Marvel and WB have definitely made strides to break the traditional release date models for blockbuster tentpoles, so does the season still matter? Can Marvel release a film in January or September now and be wildly successful?

 

[jmc]

It never did. The idea that certain dates were for certain movies was complete nonsense from day one. It's always been about the quality of the film, not when it's released.

 

[Sithborg]

There are still external factors that you need to take into consideration.

 

[TheGuy]

Absolutely. Joker is the perfect example. I think cramming most of the blockbusters during May-July really hurts some of the lesser known or popular franchises, though that in itself isn't a guarantee they won't get stomped. The argument that audiences have more disposable income during May-July does not hold water internationally IMO. Hell, the theaters in my country at this time of the year do poorer business because the biggest blockbusters are crammed during those months. We could really use a more spread out schedule.

 

[Yowza]

Well, I'll just spin the contextualization wheel and say:
*1st week is what mainly matters. People are generally sheep going in stride when it comes to theater going. Valentines Day or other holidays often help during other times of the year while school is still in session.

*Worldwide release has offered a bit of a safety net as video rental and disc/digital sales decline. Licensing content for broadcasting or streaming is another hook larger studios are able to utilize to glean some extra dollars off box office flops to an extent. Still, worldwide has helped over the last 20 years increasingly... There's so much content avenues now but how much this helps for non-IP content could lead to a sharp binary success/failiure margin though in the future.

*Media Conglomerates are growing. The marketing/distribution pull is ever more streamlined.

*Comcast owns Fandango who own RottenTomatoes. Who has pull here can count...

*Some Studio's may have deals/leverage with certain theater chains to keep certain films on X-Amount of screens for so long with promotion/marketing kicking things up to get that initial wave that is first week while telegraphing the slighter ripples after as theater screen showings decrease.

 

[mclay18]

Absolutely. Joker is the perfect example. I think cramming most of the blockbusters during May-July really hurts some of the lesser known or popular franchises, though that in itself isn't a guarantee they won't get stomped. The argument that audiences have more disposable income during May-July does not hold water internationally IMO.

Yeah. I think WB hurt themselves when they released MOS in mid-June 2013. It was competing for screens and summer 2013 had way too many movies. Compared to March, which was pretty lightweight (Oz and GI Joe Retaliation) and August (a dead zone), WB could’ve made more had they moved MOS to spring or late summer 2013.

And looking at how Terminator Dark Fate conked out, WB should’ve kept WW84 in its original November 2019 release. It would’ve killed it until Frozen 2 rolls along.

 

[Flint Marko]

I think it only really matters in regards to competition. For example, Shazam would have performed better if it didn’t come out so close to Captain Marvel.

 

[MadVillainy]

Saying flat out release dates doesn't matter is kinda a bit silly to me.
While you can release successful movies at any time, there's a reason why there are only a few huge hits that open in January or September because they come after huge spending periods at least in the US.

I think it only really matters in regards to competition. For example, Shazam would have performed better if it didn’t come out so close to Captain Marvel.

That's the biggest thing I think. The competition

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Keep in mind that Titanic and Avatar both cleaned up in January after a late December release. So yeah, I'm inclined to believe it has more to do with the film and less to do with the date.

 

[MadVillainy]

Keep in mind that Titanic and Avatar both cleaned up in January after a late December release. So yeah, I'm inclined to believe it has more to do with the film and less to do with the date.

That's 2 movies...
Sure you could open MCU or Star Wars in Jan and get a guarantee hit, but those are exceptions not the rule

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Release dates certainly do matter IMO.

Certain franchises like the Marvel movies can afford to release whenever because they’ve gotten the world invested in their story but a franchise like Terminator would’ve fared so much better in the summertime.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That's 2 movies...
Sure you could open MCU or Star Wars in Jan and get a guarantee hit, but those are exceptions not the rule

But I think it shows that the real problem with January is that studios use it as a dumping ground. There aren't going to be many big grosses in January if studios don't release big movies there.

 

[mclay18]

I think WB made a mistake releasing Doctor Sleep in early November and not take advantage of October (which was devoid of horror titles). They could’ve swapped dates with Joker and fared better.

 

[mclay18]

I think it only really matters in regards to competition. For example, Shazam would have performed better if it didn’t come out so close to Captain Marvel.

The two movies were spaced essentially a month apart. What hurt Shazam was Avengers Endgame coming out three weeks after that.

 

[Web-Head]

I don't think the month necessarily matters, but what else is out or coming out around that time does. Sure, you don't really want to release a major movie in January, but if it has good reviews and good word of mouth it doesn't totally matter.

I think it has to do with the competition more then release date. There are some exceptions, but usually not. Like, releasing Halloween or a Christmas movie in July wouldn't work, lol.

I think Shazam would have done better if it was released in June or July and not right around Captain Marvel and Endgame.

 

[psylockolussus]

Of course release dates matter. Or else studios would just release their biggest tentpole film in the second weekend of January and the entire month of September. Holidays, kids going back to school, school break are big factors. Would Disney release Frozen 2 or the latest Marvel film in the middle of the week and the same week kids/teen return to school? Nope.

 

[mclay18]

Would Disney release Frozen 2 or the latest Marvel film in the middle of the week and the same week kids/teen return to school? Nope.

Marvel carved out early November as blockbuster potential way back in 2013. That’s not a major holiday weekend.

And Disney took a big gamble with moving the Maleficent sequel from summer 2020 to fall 2019. A gamble that didn’t pan out but that was due to no demand for a sequel.

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats not the question I was asking.

Would Disney release Frozen 2 or the latest Marvel film in the middle of the week and the same week kids/teen return to school?

Studios don't just randomly select release dates.

 

[mclay18]

Studios don't just randomly select release dates.

They don’t do it at random, but if a certain movie does well in an unexpected spot— they’ll date a similar title of their own for that same weekend 2-3 years after. (If their competition didn’t already date a sequel for that same date.)

It’s not surprising that Disney dated their fourth 2022 MCU title for October 7 the day that Joker hit $1 billion worldwide.

 

[psylockolussus]

Venom had success in October as well. But you as you said it yourself, good release dates do matter with that example.Who knows maybe one day, there would be a movie opening in January with a $100 million opening weekend gross, orone day, September becomes a blockbuster month for movies, studios releasing a tentpole film every weekend of September, similar to May. But right now, there aren't really scenarios, that those months became a hot month for movies.

My point is getting a release date matters, which is a no brainer after following the box office for over a decade. So this thread is really asking a no brainer answer.