Sci-Fi Dune

[DarthSkywalker]

No. The SAG-AFTRA strike is still ongoing, they already put out all the new promotional material with the new release date, and most importantly, they forfeited their IMAX screens to The Marvels.

Saw The Nun 2 In theaters, and they had the first trailer with the new date. I almost cried.

And yeah, this feels like a TDK/Half-Blood Prince move. Where the move was done because they don't need Dune's box office this year, with how well Barbie did. The strike as an excuse.

 

[Filmfreak]

Zendaya alone has almost 200 million followers on Instagram. They have a gigantic cast that they absolutely need to promote the film, to boost both a successful box office and a successful Oscar campaign. They don't exclusively rely on them but it would be a pretty big blow without them like other films have reported this year.

One the other hand it is still going to cost them quite a bit to promote the film again, the IMAX exclusivity is a question mark (though I'm optimistic it will end up having a good deal again) and it hurts both the awards promo and the momentum of the first movie. So to think that they would have moved it regardless of the strike makes pretty much zero sense and undermines the importance of actors in marketing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Zendaya alone has almost 200 million followers on Instagram. They have a gigantic cast that they absolutely need to promote the film, to boost both a successful box office and a successful Oscar campaign. They don't exclusively rely on them but it would be a pretty big blow without them like other films have reported this year.

One the other hand it is still going to cost them quite a bit to promote the film again, the IMAX exclusivity is a question mark (though I'm optimistic it will end up having a good deal again) and it hurts both the awards promo and the momentum of the first movie. So to think that they would have moved it regardless of the strike makes pretty much zero sense and undermines the importance of actors in marketing.

What successful Oscar campaign are they going to get releasing in March?

Zendaya's online presence works against the idea that they need to heavily promote. Those fans would already know it's coming. They're already invested.

 

[Filmfreak]

What successful Oscar campaign are they going to get releasing in March?

Zendaya's online presence works against the idea that they need to heavily promote. Those fans would already know it's coming. They're already invested.

The fact that she has a big fanbase doesn't mean that there aren't various types of fans that follow her. Not everyone knows exactly what, where and when she's doing everything. And she was just an example. We are talking about one of the biggest casts for a Hollywood movie. You can't have them sit around and not being able to promote anything or thinking that it won't affect the box office in any significant way.

The March date is not good for the awards (like I already said in my post), but it doesn't automatically diminish any chances it has. Oppenheimer wasn't released in awards season either and it's the front-runner for most Oscars this year. Sure, July is much better than March, but what's even worse than March is to try and do an Oscar campaign without any actors to promote it.

I know most of you are bitter for this delay, I am too, and I can understand thinking it's not a good idea, even if I find it more of a necessary evil myself. What I don't understand is where exactly are you basing the fact that the movie's delay has nothing to do with the strike and what it really is about, which you didn't elaborate. Do you believe that it has something to do with the VFX artists that can't finish it on time? What's your thinking behind this? It's an honest question.

 

[Drizzle]

Maybe I'm being pessimistic since it's way too early to tell anyway but as far as Oscars are concerned, no matter when it's released I feel like the best shot it has at any of the bigger awards outside of the technical categories and score is Adapted Screenplay, maybe Best Director if it's a weaker year.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The fact that she has a big fanbase doesn't mean that there aren't various types of fans that follow her. Not everyone knows exactly what, where and when she's doing everything. And she was just an example. We are talking about one of the biggest casts for a Hollywood movie. You can't have them sit around and not being able to promote anything or thinking that it won't affect the box office in any significant way.

The March date is not good for the awards (like I already said in my post), but it doesn't automatically diminish any chances it has. Oppenheimer wasn't released in awards season either and it's the front-runner for most Oscars this year. Sure, July is much better than March, but what's even worse than March is to try and do an Oscar campaign without any actors to promote it.

I know most of you are bitter for this delay, I am too, and I can understand thinking it's not a good idea, even if I find it more of a necessary evil myself. What I don't understand is where exactly are you basing the fact that the movie's delay has nothing to do with the strike and what it really is about, which you didn't elaborate. Do you believe that it has something to do with the VFX artists that can't finish it on time? What's your thinking behind this? It's an honest question.

Oppenheimer is a front runner pre-award season movies. This has happened multiple times with Nolan. How many Oscars has he walked away with?

That said, Oppenheimer is a cultural event Dune is probably not going to be.

I'm not bitter about the delay. I'm excited for The Marvels to get the IMAX screens and not having to deal with Dune. I think the delay have very little to do with the strike because all signs point to it.

1. The strike's only happened because the studios wanted them to. They knew this was coming for a while. It wasn't a suprise. They were still the ones who played hardball.

2. Barbie's and the Nun II's success is exactly why these kind have happened in the past. Shifting a potential money maker to a different year/quarter, is something this studio has done in the past. Different mangement, but still.

3. They are spending more money to promote this again, then they could possibly make up on the back end with "promotion". Think of all the successes that have happened over the last 3 months without promotion, both in theaters and on streaming. During the dead months. It's because all they need to do is show pictures of the actors and run TV spots. That's the formula. Not late night/early morning TV drops.

Social media already knows. That's why they're on social media. They're too involved in what these actors do. Case-in-point, Taylor Swift's concert movie.

4. Blaming the strikes for these delay, was a tactic to try and get the public to turn on the workers. Once that happens, it removes it immediately from the table.

Disney made these threats on multiple occasions, but did not move The Marvels or Wish. Because they need the money.

 

[Drizzle]

Oppenheimer is a front runner pre-award season movies. This has happened multiple times with Nolan. How many Oscars has he walked away with?

This time'll be different, Darth! You'll see!

(I actually do believe this is his year at least as far as Best Director is concerned, but I digress...)

Another thing to note is that an early in the year release doesn't automatically spell doom for Oscar chances. Everything Everywhere All At Once was released in March, after all. Get Out came out in February 2017 and while the biggest award it won was Best Original Screenplay, it most certainly wasn't forgotten and had a year's worth of momentum going into it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This time'll be different, Darth! You'll see!

(I actually do believe this is his year at least as far as Best Director is concerned, but I digress...)

Another thing to note is that an early in the year release doesn't automatically spell doom for Oscar chances. Everything Everywhere All At Once was released in March, after all. Get Out came out in February 2017 and while the biggest award it won was Best Original Screenplay, it most certainly wasn't forgotten and had a year's worth of momentum going into it.

While true, I do not think it in anyway makes it's chances better. So at best, it's a wash. There is a reason most Oscar contenders come out very late, until the Oscars decide they want to throw a bone to the marginalized. Which thankfully worked out last year.

 

[Drizzle]

While true, I do not think it in anyway makes it's chances better. So at best, it's a wash. There is a reason most Oscar contenders come out very late, until the Oscars decide they want to throw a bone to the marginalized. Which thankfully worked out last year.

Oh for sure, the most sensible thing for studios to do is release their Oscar contenders close to or during awards season. It just so happened that cinema in 2022 peaked in March and the Academy didn't argue.

 

[Filmfreak]

Oppenheimer is a front runner pre-award season movies. This has happened multiple times with Nolan. How many Oscars has he walked away with?

That said, Oppenheimer is a cultural event Dune is probably not going to be.

I'm not bitter about the delay. I'm excited for The Marvels to get the IMAX screens and not having to deal with Dune. I think the delay have very little to do with the strike because all signs point to it.

1. The strike's only happened because the studios wanted them to. They knew this was coming for a while. It wasn't a suprise. They were still the ones who played hardball.

2. Barbie's and the Nun II's success is exactly why these kind have happened in the past. Shifting a potential money maker to a different year/quarter, is something this studio has done in the past. Different mangement, but still.

3. They are spending more money to promote this again, then they could possibly make up on the back end with "promotion". Think of all the successes that have happened over the last 3 months without promotion, both in theaters and on streaming. During the dead months. It's because all they need to do is show pictures of the actors and run TV spots. That's the formula. Not late night/early morning TV drops.

Social media already knows. That's why they're on social media. They're too involved in what these actors do. Case-in-point, Taylor Swift's concert movie.

4. Blaming the strikes for these delay, was a tactic to try and get the public to turn on the workers. Once that happens, it removes it immediately from the table.

Disney made these threats on multiple occasions, but did not move The Marvels or Wish. Because they need the money.

While you make some interesting points, I still think you severely underestimate the boost such a big cast would give to the film's marketing. The delay can be both a tactic and a bit of a necessity. One doesn't necessarily negate the other.

I mean if they only wanted to scare actors they would have moved their entire slate like Sony. Instead they moved only the one big movie we know they care enough to do well for future installments and they left Aquaman, from a dying franchise that they couldn't care less, to rot.

The biggest problems the sequel faces are bigger marketing cost due to the delay and losing a bit of the momentum (ideally it should have been a movie that came one year after Part One, instead it will come after two and a half years).

I still believe that it wouldn't have any serious chance for a solid Oscar campaign without the actors to support it, and even though March generally is not a good month for awards contention, like @Drizzle said it still did wonders for Everything, Everywhere, All at Once.

Furthermore competition in March doesn't look as severe as having a big Marvel movie opening one week after this film's premiere. Biggest competition is Snow White and all signs show that it will be delayed too, as will other movies early next year (not that I think it will do serious numbers like Little Mermaid in the US).

As for the IMAX screens I don't see any reason why it won't get another exclusive window if it got one the first time. Even if it gets a smaller one, if the movie is a big hit it will extend like Oppenheimer's.

 

[Drizzle]

While you make some interesting points, I still think you severely underestimate the boost such a big cast would give to the film's marketing. The delay can be both a tactic and a bit of a necessity. One doesn't necessarily negate the other.

I mean if they only wanted to scare actors they would have moved their entire slate like Sony. Instead they moved only the one big movie we know they care enough to do well for future installments and they left Aquaman, from a dying franchise that they couldn't care less, to rot.

The biggest problems the sequel faces are bigger marketing cost due to the delay and losing a bit of the momentum (ideally it should have been a movie that came one year after Part One, instead it will come after two and a half years).

I still believe that it wouldn't have any serious chance for a solid Oscar campaign without the actors to support it, and even though March generally is not a good month for awards contention, like @Drizzle said it still did wonders for Everything, Everywhere, All at Once.

Furthermore competition in March doesn't look as severe as having a big Marvel movie opening one week after this film's premiere. Biggest competition is Snow White and all signs show that it will be delayed too, as will other movies early next year (not that I think it will do serious numbers like Little Mermaid in the US).

As for the IMAX screens I don't see any reason why it won't get another exclusive window if it got one the first time. Even if it gets a smaller one, if the movie is a big hit it will extend like Oppenheimer's.

As far as box office, I think it stands to do better in March than it did in its original slot. I was always kind of iffy about it coming out in November as I made it clear in this thread many times that they should have pushed it up to October to distance itself from The Marvels. Careful what you wish for, I guess.

But as far as marketing, I don't think the marketing campaign was really in full force yet by the time it got delayed. The SAG strike delayed any kind of press tours which probably wouldn't have started until about now anyway. I'm not sure exactly but wouldn't the biggest extra marketing costs due to the delay be just changing the date on posters? They really didn't get that far into it. The date change on the trailers is an easy fix since most theaters project those digitally.

 

[Filmfreak]

As far as box office, I think it stands to do better in March than it did in its original slot. I was always kind of iffy about it coming out in November as I made it clear in this thread many times that they should have pushed it up to October to distance itself from The Marvels. Careful what you wish for, I guess.

But as far as marketing, I don't think the marketing campaign was really in full force yet by the time it got delayed. The SAG strike delayed any kind of press tours which probably wouldn't have started until about now anyway. I'm not sure exactly but wouldn't the biggest extra marketing costs due to the delay be just changing the date on posters? They really didn't get that far into it. The date change on the trailers is an easy fix since most theaters project those digitally.

The second trailer was released in July, which will now be eight months before the movie eventually comes out. Same for trade promotion like that Empire article that was ironically out one day after the delay was announced. Outside the first teaser everything else we saw was kind of wasted, which means they'll have to have more than just one final trailer now and quite a few more exclusive articles to promote this again, because it will be quite a while since marketing picks again.

But you're right, it wasn't full force. As reports were saying, the final marketing push would have started early September and would have kept going for the remaining two months if the film had stay put. It still will cost them more than it would if all this hadn't happen, though.

And you're absolutely right it should have gone earlier to October. I gather it was kind of pushing it because the film was said would probably not be ready in September to play in festivals, but then again WB is the worst in their date choosing, so sabotaging their own movies for no apparent reason, has stopped surprising me quite some time ago.

 

[Sithborg]

This time'll be different, Darth! You'll see!

(I actually do believe this is his year at least as far as Best Director is concerned, but I digress...)

Another thing to note is that an early in the year release doesn't automatically spell doom for Oscar chances. Everything Everywhere All At Once was released in March, after all. Get Out came out in February 2017 and while the biggest award it won was Best Original Screenplay, it most certainly wasn't forgotten and had a year's worth of momentum going into it.

You will get that football one day Charlie Brown.

 

[Sawyer]

Oh LEGO is popping tf off.

 

[TheVileOne]

Zendaya alone has almost 200 million followers on Instagram. They have a gigantic cast that they absolutely need to promote the film, to boost both a successful box office and a successful Oscar campaign. They don't exclusively rely on them but it would be a pretty big blow without them like other films have reported this year.

One the other hand it is still going to cost them quite a bit to promote the film again, the IMAX exclusivity is a question mark (though I'm optimistic it will end up having a good deal again) and it hurts both the awards promo and the momentum of the first movie. So to think that they would have moved it regardless of the strike makes pretty much zero sense and undermines the importance of actors in marketing.

Instagram followers rarely translates to box office success.

Also, if Dune Part 2 opens up without Paul's naming scene, I will lose a lot of respect for Denis Villeneuve.

I'm still annoyed with how the first movie ended. It was badly executed.

 

[Filmfreak]

Instagram followers rarely translates to box office success.

Tell that to Taylor Swift.

The point was and still is that actors of a star-studded ensemble being able to promote the film they're in is certainly going to give it a needed boost in box office gross.

 

[TheVileOne]

Tell that to Taylor Swift.

The point was and still is that actors of a star-studded ensemble being able to promote the film they're in is certainly going to give it a needed boost in box office gross.

OK but Taylor Swift is a popular music Superstar. Also, none of her followers went to see her in Amsterdam. So that's another example.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

OK but Taylor Swift is a popular music Superstar. Also, none of her followers went to see her in Babylon. So that's another example.

Well said.

 

[emielaen]

I think you mean Amsterdam.

 

[flickchick85]

I think you mean Amsterdam.

But who wouldn't want to pay to see their fave do this?!

 

[Filmfreak]

Anything close to a competition for Dune, meaning A Quite Place prequel and Snow White, have both been delayed this last week. I now feel much more confident regarding its box office numbers, providing it's received as well as the first one. Even with The Marvels predictions dropping each week I think that would partially do some damage in its previous date. So at least there's that.

 

[Drizzle]

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

sorry I’ve been gone all day, just got back from the theater: Incredible movie.

 

[Luigi]

 

[Drizzle]

About the same runtime as 2049. I can dig it.