Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Webfoot Hero]

Variety is still reporting $210+ million as a possibility while Deadline is using $202.6 million as their estimates. A couple places are giving a 20% drop as their estimate for Saturday so it's hard to say how high or low it'll go. Prognosticators are looking to be correct in factoring that the combination of Mayweath/Pacquiao and Kentucky Derby would take a bit out of the OW box office, based on some polling they've done.

 

[Tony Stark]

Variety is still reporting $210+ million as a possibility while Deadline is using $202.6 million as their estimates. A couple places are giving a 20% drop as their estimate for Saturday so it's hard to say how high or low it'll go. Prognosticators are looking to be correct in factoring that the combination of Mayweath/Pacquiao and Kentucky Derby would take a bit out of the OW box office, based on some polling they've done.

I'm skeptical about the fight. This may not break the weekend record, but I'm not going to attribute it to either of those two things. With the fight you are talking about a subset of a subset, of a subset of the people going to see the film.

Now the cumulative effect of the fight, game 7 of the Spurs vs. Clippers, the Derby, the NHL playoffs, may have an effect. But I think that people who want to see the movie opening weekend will see it opening weekend, they will rearrange their schedules accordingly, so maybe a bigger Saturday drop and a stronger than expected Sunday? The only big questions are how much the sporting events effect repeat viewership, and postponing viewing for a later date.

Seems like picking nits for a film that most are in agreement that it's $185M in the bag.

 

[JKKS085]

There are always external factors that could distract people from seeing a movie on opening week end. Aside from the fight this is really nothing special. Every movie has to face competition from other types of entertainment (wether it's sports, tv, video games ... politics) so lets not start dissecting everything to find some sort of excuses because there are no excuses to find in the first place.

Apparently Saturday is looking like 63-67M so unless the actuals end up on the higher end of these estimates 200M won't happen. 190/195M pretty much guaranteed though.

 

[Tony Stark]

Just saw there were some interesting numbers that in the preview showings there was a 16% drop in 3D viewings. IMAX was up about 6%, but there's not a great deal of IMAX screens compared to the 3D screenings.

I'm betting those percentages hold true through the weekend, in which case yeah the $190 numbers make alot more sense.

I'm guessing Star Wars is the only film in the next several years that has a legit shot at the record. 3D is dying pretty quickly.

 

[JC00]

Boxoffice.com is saying $210m

 

[Tony Stark]

Sheez, these numbers are all over the freaking place. RTH is the one saying the 63-67M, but he was way up yesterday, so maybe he's being more conservative on the estimates if the 210M is true.

$210 would basically be the A1 multiplier carred over, but if it is $210, we won't know for sure until Monday if it's a record breaker.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's just box office.com's projection, just like they were projecting a 90+ million opening day and that didn't happen so I don't take that number seriously one way or the other. It might be wrong and it might be totally right, we will have to wait and see tomorrow.

Either way the film is putting up phenomenal numbers and if one is disappointed one doesn't know how box office works.

 

[Rapunzel]

For what it's worth, I saw AoU twice so far--. First was Thursday--- theater was only 75-80 percent full. Today, I saw it again and the theater was only 40 percent full. Hardly any laughs at the jokes too.

I was hecka surprised. Just thought I'd share; thought it was interesting to see in terms of theater going habits.

 

[Best]

For what it's worth, I saw AoU twice so far--. First was Thursday--- theater was only 75-80 percent full. Today, I saw it again and the theater was only 40 percent full. Hardly any laughs at the jokes too.

I was hecka surprised. Just thought I'd share; thought it was interesting to see in terms of theater going habits.

OK. Just saying though, can't take your word for things like this considering your opinion... elsewhere.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My theater seemed to respond very well to the film, there were kids there so perfect audience to see it with really.

I'll write my review tomorrow in the review thread by the way.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm skeptical about the fight. This may not break the weekend record, but I'm not going to attribute it to either of those two things. With the fight you are talking about a subset of a subset, of a subset of the people going to see the film.

Now the cumulative effect of the fight, game 7 of the Spurs vs. Clippers, the Derby, the NHL playoffs, may have an effect. But I think that people who want to see the movie opening weekend will see it opening weekend, they will rearrange their schedules accordingly, so maybe a bigger Saturday drop and a stronger than expected Sunday? The only big questions are how much the sporting events effect repeat viewership, and postponing viewing for a later date.

Seems like picking nits for a film that most are in agreement that it's $185M in the bag.

3-4 million domestic buys, plus every single bar in America being packed. This is a global event.

 

[hafizbat]

I've seen it twice so far and both times the theater was completely full. The second time we had to go to a different theater because the one we went to was sold out for the rest of the day. And the theater we went to after was sold out so we had to wait til the next showing, and even that showing had every seat filled.

I do live in I believe the biggest tourist place in the country, so it might not be this way everywhere.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My theater seemed to respond very well to the film, there were kids there so perfect audience to see it with really.

I'll write my review tomorrow in the review thread by the way.

I wait to read it. Though I am curious, did you like it better then the first?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Variety is still reporting $210+ million as a possibility while Deadline is using $202.6 million as their estimates. A couple places are giving a 20% drop as their estimate for Saturday so it's hard to say how high or low it'll go. Prognosticators are looking to be correct in factoring that the combination of Mayweath/Pacquiao and Kentucky Derby would take a bit out of the OW box office, based on some polling they've done.

Deadline updates a bit more then the rest when it comes to box office. There are good and bad things about that. You get the most up to date into, but you also end up with a lot of estimates.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wait to read it. Though I am curious, did you like it better then the first?

Right now, yes but this is going to be another Guardians of the Galaxy thing between us. Just a fair warning.

 

[marcvader]

My 6:30 viewing was sold out as was the 6. Audience was into it with laughter and cheers in the right places.

 

[Rapunzel]

OK. Just saying though, can't take your word for things like this considering your opinion... elsewhere.

Um... my opinion elsewhere does not make me a liar. Good Lord.

And my opinion elsewhere is also not saying I didn't enjoy the film. I can enjoy a movie while seeing its flaws and being frustrated with certain aspects of it.

I saw it twice, so I was clearly entertained enough.

 

[Rapunzel]

My 6:30 viewing was sold out as was the 6. Audience was into it with laughter and cheers in the right places.

I think timing might have to do with things. My first viewing at 7pm was hecka into it. My second viewing was at 3:15 on a Sat. That might account for the lackluster response.

Also, I must admit, in consideration, that my times (7pm Thursday and 3:15 Sat) might not be the most peak times forvi ewership, accounting for the lower theater crowd.

 

[Suzanne78]

Right now, yes but this is going to be another Guardians of the Galaxy thing between us. Just a fair warning.

I can't wait to see what you thought about it!

 

[eddy]

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/594728817744314368

Disney estimates 195M for the weekend.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I think timing might have to do with things. My first viewing at 7pm was hecka into it. My second viewing was at 3:15 on a Sat. That might account for the lackluster response.

Also, I must admit, in consideration, that my times (7pm Thursday and 3:15 Sat) might not be the most peak times forvi ewership, accounting for the lower theater crowd.

Saturday matinees are real hit-or-miss in terms of crowd size and reaction. When I did IM3 in 2013, the crowd was only about 40% and not that loud but when I watched TWS in the same theater with a similar time, it was about 80% and very into the movie.

 

[Iceman]

This film may have trouble getting past TDK's $534m.

 

[Docker2.0]

OK. Just saying though, can't take your word for things like this considering your opinion... elsewhere.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/594728817744314368

Disney estimates 195M for the weekend.

Seems about right. I'm not sure if I ever really bought into the whole $220+ weekend since that is just an enormous total. It'll be interesting to see the breakdown of 3D tickets versus 2D tickets since I think that is where they lost most of their money from TA1's total. For TA1, 52% saw it in 3D. Ever since that movie, no MCU film has gotten more than 45% of its OW from 3D sales (IM3: 45%; TDW: 39%; TWS: 40%; GotG: 45%.)

 

[Rapunzel]

so, I recount my viewing experience and it's considered a questionable account because I wasn't 100% positive about the movie?

I seriously fear for the world when people act like this.