Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[rashad]

Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya
If #AvengersAgeOfUltron plays out like IronMan3, it would finish w/ about $441M domestic - down 29% vs #Avengers.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Huge drops. I'm sure it will still make 1 billion.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Huge drops. I'm sure it will still make 1 billion.

It will make a billion just from overseas markets. Something like $1.45 billion worldwide is locked to happen.

 

[JKKS085]

$187.7m is the official estimate. Taking out midnights/previews:

TA1 - $188.7m
TA2 - $160.1m
IM3 - $158.5m

If it continues running 1% ahead of IM3 for the rest of its run, it will not reach $425m. At this point I'm hoping it can get past $450m. I think $500m is unlikely.

That is way below expectation and frankly disappointing.
It is a massive opening and there is absolutely no reason to doubt that the film will turn out extremely profitable for Marvel/Disney (after all it already grossed more than twice its reported production budget in 10 days of release WW) however it is far from the box office sensation we all expected.

Even the OS markets are overall turning in good but not great numbers for the for week end and some of them slowed down pretty significantly (the movie is sitting at 439M with China and Japan to come). So even on that front beating the first film WW take won't be as easy as it seemed last week.

This is the first Marvel film in while not blowing bo expectations out of the water. It feels a little weird to see things slowing down when we've been used to 7 years of steady growth.

 

[See Cap Run]

It may not be as loved by the critics as the first but nonetheless, shouldn't the stellar word of mouth it's getting with audiences have a bigger impact on its box office hold than critics reviews? It has a 90% audience approval rating on RT vs Avengers 92% so it seems audiences love it about as much as the first one. Didn't they both get A CinemaScores as well? It's also still quite well-received by critics being certified fresh and all.

 

[Docker2.0]

That would be a crazy hold over. I can't see that happening.

The original had $100M on it's second weekend so you never know. Plus if people haven't seen it, they will see it next weekend. I can totally see it happening. That fight took more out of this than people realize. Not to mention a game 7in the NBA............it was a lot that factored into the numbers dipping like they did.

 

[Joefixit]

I can't see if falling that hard next weekend, with no competition.

I wonder if it will hold next week or see a steep drop..

 

[Flint Marko]

It had to have taken a decent chunk out of the 20 to late 30's demo. Which would cut off some of the kids going as well.

We had 50+ people at our house watching the fight last night. That definitely took a huge bite out of the BO, no doubt.
I said for a while that I don't know if this will be able to match the box office of the first one, and was told that this one is almost a lock for over 1.5 billion. Guess I was kind of right, unfortunately.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It may not be as loved by the critics as the first but nonetheless, shouldn't the stellar word of mouth it's getting with audiences have a bigger impact on its box office hold than critics reviews? It has a 90% audience approval rating on RT vs Avengers 92% so it seems audiences love it about as much as the first one. Didn't they both get A CinemaScores as well? It's also still quite well-received by critics being certified fresh and all.

TA1 got an A+. Even the Transformers movies usually get an A- at least. CinemaScore tends to be very generous. The crowd I saw it with on Thursday seemed to enjoy it a lot, but there was not as much cheering and loud laughing as the first one (think of Hulk's big moments in that first film at the end).

 

[Iceman]

We had 50+ people at our house watching the fight last night. That definitely took a huge bite out of the BO, no doubt.
I said for a while that I don't know if this will be able to match the box office of the first one, and was told that this one is almost a lock for over 1.5 billion. Guess I was kind of right, unfortunately.

1.5B is still happening yes. It's just US numbers that are coming in under expectation while overseas are better so far. Which means the top end of expectations for worldwide which were optimistic on both domestic and overseas should be lowered. But even worst case scenario in the US will only make so much difference to the overall number. Still going to be less than what I'd predicted worldwide and domestic now though.

 

[Flint Marko]

TA1 got an A+. Even the Transformers movies usually get an A- at least. CinemaScore tends to be very generous. The crowd I saw it with on Thursday seemed to enjoy it a lot, but there was not as much cheering and loud laughing as the first one (think of Hulk's big moments in that first film at the end).

The Hulk/Loki bit will never be topped. I heard a whole lot of laughing and cheering in both screenings, but nothing came close to that moment.

 

[psylockolussus]

I knew it wouldnt beat Avengers 1's opening weekend and I thought the opening weekend predictions of 200 to 230 million were a bit much but 187 million in three days is still great.

 

[JKKS085]

The original had $100M on it's second weekend so you never know. Plus if people haven't seen it, they will see it next weekend. I can totally see it happening. That fight took more out of this than people realize. Not to mention a game 7in the NBA............it was a lot that factored into the numbers dipping like they did.

Unfortunately the sunday drop says otherwise.
If the game had a significant impact on the saturday number the sunday drop should have been softer. The current numbers put it at a standard -20%.
Movies that hold great after an ow week end displaying such a low internal multiplier are very rare occurrences.

 

[take3]

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well that's just the estimate, it could do better on Sunday than the studio is expecting. As a matter of fact it wouldn't surprise me if it did better than expected on Sunday when the actuals come out tomorrow afternoon.

And I wouldn't say that this is the first film to not blow up, that title belongs to The Dark World. It barely made over 200 million despite people saying that 250-300 million was assured.

Anyway it is obvious that the fight hurt the box office this weekend. I think AOU would have hit 195-200million without it. I still don't think it was ever getting the record though.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Well that's just the estimate, it could do better on Sunday than the studio is expecting. As a matter of fact it wouldn't surprise me if it did better than expected on Sunday when the actuals come out tomorrow afternoon.

It could do better but it could also do worse. They are predicting a sub-20% drop today. IM3 dropped 30%. TA1 dropped 18%, which was phenomenal for this time of year.

I think Disney is expecting a good hold due to boxing match and NBA game last night, but there is no guarantee on it. Could drop 25-30% like IM3 with actuals.

 

[Docker2.0]

Unfortunately the sunday drop says otherwise.
If the game had a significant impact on the saturday number the sunday drop should have been softer. The current numbers put it at a standard -20%.
Movies that hold great after an ow week end displaying such a low internal multiplier are very rare occurrences.

I never understood how people can know if a film will drop on a Sunday when we are not even half past the day yet. But as a person who ordered that fight(and watched A:AoU)it wasn't that easy to do, especially money wise but we did and I know tons of people who are in the same situation. They wanted to see Avengers but couldn't because they were watching the fight. That fight was the Superbowl of boxing! I guess I'm just being over positive with this thing but we will see next weekend. And it when does $120M, I will be here to remind YOU of it every day for the next week.


































I kid, I kid! But seriously, it's going to make $120M next weekend.

 

[Iceman]

187,656,000
Boxoficemojo has now posted estimated weekend figures of $187,656,000. Overseas of $340m for $527,656,000 worldwide but that's only up to Friday overseas so we'll see where this ends up by Monday. The overseas weekend drops should be soft with new territories opening.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It has no chance of making 120 million next weekend.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I knew it wouldnt beat Avengers 1's opening weekend and I thought the opening weekend predictions of 200 to 230 million were a bit much but 187 million in three days is still great.

I thought $210 was achievable.

 

[warhorse78]

TA1 got an A+. Even the Transformers movies usually get an A- at least. CinemaScore tends to be very generous. The crowd I saw it with on Thursday seemed to enjoy it a lot, but there was not as much cheering and loud laughing as the first one (think of Hulk's big moments in that first film at the end).

I went with a huge Marvel fan crowd for my showing, and like you said, not much laughing and cheering going on. The only time there were any reactions was when Cap was being a badass and

Spoiler

when QuickSilver got killed

. I don't think the audience cared for that. And oh, when

Spoiler

Nick Fury

showed up (people liked that despite what this site wants us to believe) When walking out, I told my cousin I thought the movie was a bit on the boring side, what with Ultron and his BS mumblings, the Natasha/Bruce thing and the slow down at the farm with Hawkeye's family. Stuff like that really brings the momentum down. I then heard other fans saying the same thing, Ultron was a let down, the movie was boring and too much fluff going on. Best parts were the party scene, the fight on the floating city, and the banter between Steve and Tony at the farm. The movie focused on characters/crap that the audience just doesn't care about. Love stories, lack of Loki, lack of an engaging enemy, no really tight badass fights (face it, the Hulkbuster and Hulk fight was kind of boring) and the jokes fell really flat. Really flat.

This will probably teach Kevin Feige a valuable lesson, when you have a bigger picture at stake for the franchise, never, ever let the director of an individual movie have free rein.

 

[Kanon]

Well, I thought it would beat Avengers1 but in retrospective, a sequel doing better than the original in the BO is the result of a first film getting regular/low numbers, and doing great in home video. Everyone watched the first movie on theaters, word of mouth wasn't gonna be any better.

Still, should have made similar numbers. I think word of mouth hurt it a little. I can see people being cautious, unlike the first film when everyone was almost forced to see the event of the century

 

[redfirebird2008]

Unfortunately the sunday drop says otherwise.
If the game had a significant impact on the saturday number the sunday drop should have been softer. The current numbers put it at a standard -20%.
Movies that hold great after an ow week end displaying such a low internal multiplier are very rare occurrences.

20% is not a standard drop in early May. It's actually a very good hold if it happens. Could easily end up closer to 30% though.

 

[Docker2.0]

I went with a huge Marvel fan crowd for my showing, and like you said, not much laughing and cheering going on. The only time there were any reactions was when Cap was being a badass and

Spoiler

when QuickSilver got killed

. I don't think the audience cared for that. And oh, when

Spoiler

Nick Fury

showed up (people liked that despite what this site wants us to believe) When walking out, I told my cousin I thought the movie was a bit on the boring side, what with Ultron and his BS mumblings, the Natasha/Bruce thing and the slow down at the farm with Hawkeye's family. Stuff like that really brings the momentum down. I then heard other fans saying the same thing, Ultron was a let down, the movie was boring and too much fluff going on. Best parts were the party scene, the fight on the floating city, and the banter between Steve and Tony at the farm. The movie focused on characters/crap that the audience just doesn't care about. Love stories, lack of Loki, lack of an engaging enemy, no really tight badass fights (face it, the Hulkbuster and Hulk fight was kind of boring) and the jokes fell really flat. Really flat.

This will probably teach Kevin Feige a valuable lesson, when you have a bigger picture at stake for the franchise, never, ever let the director of an individual movie have free rein.

May have been your crowd. The crowd I was in they were really into it. Some even clapped when the movie ended, especially when they saw Thanos. I don't get why people say Ultron wasn't a good villian. I actually liked him. But about Feige and directors......he can't be to hard on them because as you have seen some tend to leave and you don't want to have a bad reputation of being a taskmaster when it comes to your movies. I will say I was really disappointed that

Spoiler

the Hulk didn't say a freakin word the entire movie, just freakin moaned!!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It's looking like only about a 1/3 of Ultron's ticket sales have been 3D so far, which is a sharp decline from TA1 which had 52%. That is a huge drop and likely the largest contributing factor in the total being so much lower, even more so than the fight's impact.