Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Spiderine]

I didn't think it would beat Avengers 1. Certainly not domestically. But I had it slightly below in WW totals around a little over 1.4 bil.

 

[Spiderine]

May have been your crowd. The crowd I was in they were really into it. Some even clapped when the movie ended, especially when they saw Thanos. I don't get why people say Ultron wasn't a good villian. I actually liked him. But about Feige and directors......he can't be to hard on them because as you have seen some tend to leave and you don't want to have a bad reputation of being a taskmaster when it comes to your movies. I will say I was really disappointed that

Spoiler

the Hulk didn't say a freakin word the entire movie, just freakin moaned!!

I have seen the movie twice. The first time there were applauds and cheers at the end. The second time there was nothing. But both times there were positive reactions during the course of the film. Every crowd is different.

 

[Docker2.0]

I have seen the movie twice. The first time there were applauds and cheers at the end. The second time there was nothing. But both times there were positive reactions during the course of the film. Every crowd is different.

You saw it twice in the same weekend?

 

[Spiderine]

You saw it twice in the same weekend?

I checked the early showing Friday and then took my kid yesterday. Thats it for me.

 

[ElMariachi]

Not sure why some people are concerned about Disney lining their pockets with more money. Don't worry, they are making a sequel.

The fight had alot to do with it not making the gross domestic product of some country in Africa in 3 days. The Avengers target market was too busy attending viewing parties for the match. I could tell looking into the bars that weren't showing the fight being completely dead on a Saturday night. Throw in Kentucky Derby gambling and maybe even the Clippers-Spurs game. Tough competition for something that can be seen anytime during the week.

 

[ManofSteel37013]

Does anyone want to even think that it opening OS hurt the domestic BO? seeing as how every torrent site had a decent copy of it up as soon as it was released. Some people watch it like that and if they like it then see it on the big screen. I feel piracy has an impact on a movie. That and the reviews have not been as good.

 

[Iceman]

It's looking like only about a 1/3 of Ultron's ticket sales have been 3D so far, which is a sharp decline from TA1 which had 52%. That is a huge drop and likely the largest contributing factor in the total being so much lower, even more so than the fight's impact.

Probably is the single biggest factor. Although I'd like to see a ticket sales comparison to see how far apart they were on that.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Does anyone want to even think that it opening OS hurt the domestic BO? seeing as how every torrent site had a decent copy of it up as soon as it was released. Some people watch it like that and if they like it then see it on the big screen. I feel piracy has an impact on a movie. That and the reviews have not been as good.

Didn't affect TA1 which also opened early overseas.

 

[Docker2.0]

Does anyone want to even think that it opening OS hurt the domestic BO? seeing as how every torrent site had a decent copy of it up as soon as it was released. Some people watch it like that and if they like it then see it on the big screen. I feel piracy has an impact on a movie. That and the reviews have not been as good.

I doubt it. It didn't hurt the original Avengers nor Fast and Furious.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

It's looking like only about a 1/3 of Ultron's ticket sales have been 3D so far, which is a sharp decline from TA1 which had 52%. That is a huge drop and likely the largest contributing factor in the total being so much lower, even more so than the fight's impact.

Good. I can't wait for this whole 3D phase to be over.

 

[Kanon]

Some numbers:

AoU did 83% of the total BO of the weekend: $187,656,000 out of a $226,169,600 total.

Avengers1 did 80%: $207,438,708 out of $258,295,713 total

So I guess you could say IT WAS a slow weekend, that fight might have hurt the general BO.

Same weekend previous years

2013: $217,4 M (Iron Man 3, 80% of total)

2014: $154 M (The Amazing Spider-Man, 59% of total)

 

[souvlaki]

20% is not a standard drop in early May. It's actually a very good hold if it happens. Could easily end up closer to 30% though.

I think Disney assumes people who watched the fight last night will turn out today so the drop will be smaller. I'm not so sure that will happen though. I don't think they are taking into account the fact that people who just plopped down $100 for PPV last night (or a rather large bar tab for that matter) are not going to be as willing to plop down another $15 today to go to the movies today. There are also plenty of people who may not be in a rush to see AoU that normally would have tagged along with friends to see it on a Saturday night who opted to watch the fight instead.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think Disney assumes people who watched the fight last night will turn out today so the drop will be smaller. I'm not so sure that will happen though. I don't think they are taking into account the fact that people who just plopped down $100 for PPV last night (or a rather large bar tab for that matter) are going to be willing to plop down another $15 today to go to the movies today. There are also plenty of people who may not be in a rush to see AoU that normally would have tagged along with friends to see it on a Saturday night who opted to watch the fight instead.

Agreed. I could see it holding better than the 20% but I could also see it landing closer to IM3's 30% too. Could go either way.

 

[ManofSteel37013]

Didn't affect TA1 which also opened early overseas.

Yea but Avengers was new and something many wanted to see on the big screen. Maybe it didn't have a huge effect but could still have played a part on some. But the decline in 3D sales could also be a huge factor

 

[JC00]

are we really acting like this are bad numbers
really?

Seems like that will be some people's outlook on this.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Deadline reports the 3D share at 47%. The 33% you're seeing is for non-IMAX, non-Premium Large Format "regular" 3D shows. You can't exclude IMAX 3D or premium large format 3D from the 3D share. Both of those were included in TA1's 52%.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Some numbers:

AoU did 83% of the total BO of the weekend: $187,656,000 out of a $226,169,600 total.

Avengers1 did 80%: $207,438,708 out of $258,295,713 total

So I guess you could say IT WAS a slow weekend, that fight might have hurt the general BO.

Same weekend previous years

2013: $217,4 M (Iron Man 3, 80% of total)

2014: $154 M (The Amazing Spider-Man, 59% of total)

To get 83% of a weekend and still fall $20 million short of the original really does show the impact of the fight and the loss of the large 3D boost Marvel enjoyed for TA1.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I knew it wouldnt beat Avengers 1's opening weekend and I thought the opening weekend predictions of 200 to 230 million were a bit much but 187 million in three days is still great.

I didn't think it would eather.I always thought it would have huge opening but thought opening weekend and domestic total would be less than first film but still high.

My domestic total prediction had been In 500 million range vs the 623 million domestic the first avengers did.

 

[Spiderdevil]

It will get to the TA total gross, maybe even exceed it a bit, the domestic drop would be taken care of by the OS boost

Just that diminishing returns on the domestic front is not good for a franchise, we saw that with the Spider-man franchise, especially when the budget will continuously increase

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Deadline reports the 3D share at 47%. The 33% you're seeing is for non-IMAX, non-Premium Large Format "regular" 3D shows. You can't exclude IMAX 3D or premium large format 3D from the 3D share. Both of those were included in TA1's 52%.

Okay, that does make a bit more sense as the nearly 19% drop from TA1 to AoU seemed a bit high. Dropping only 5% means it lost about $5-8 million in that department, if we use TA1 as a baseline. That leaves another $15 or so million that's likely accounted for in the fight/sporting events, lower critic scores, and lesser WOM.

 

[warhorse78]

Yea but Avengers was new and something many wanted to see on the big screen. Maybe it didn't have a huge effect but could still have played a part on some. But the decline in 3D sales could also be a huge factor

Possible. It's hard to see anything until we get actuals (which won't be till like Tuesady)

But for now, BOM ticket sales is like this.

Avengers: (3D)
Friday-9,952,500
Saturday-8,566,300

Age of Ultron: (3D)
Friday-10,401,500
Saturday-7,046,800

Also, just because, lets also compare to a few other blockbuster tentpoles.

The Dark Knight: (2D)
Friday-9,354,500
Saturday-6,636,500

The Dark Knight Rises (2D)
Friday-9,737,100
Saturday-5,775,300

HP Deathly Hallows part 2(3D)
Friday-11,469,900
Saturday-5,341,900

 

[redfirebird2008]

To get 83% of a weekend and still fall $20 million short of the original really does show the impact of the fight and the loss of the large 3D boost Marvel enjoyed for TA1.

Their 3D ratio was only 5% apart.

TA1's 3D share broke down like this: 40% RealD 3D, 8% IMAX 3D, 4% premium large format 3D.

TA2's 3D share breaks down like this: 30% RealD 3D, 9.6% IMAX 3D, 7.2% premium large format 3D.

 

[Zant]

I didn't think it would beat Avengers 1. Certainly not domestically. But I had it slightly below in WW totals around a little over 1.4 bil.

So there is a chance that overrated Fast and Furious film may win the year worldwide.

Its strange that all the phase 2 films got a box office boost apart from Avengers 2. This should at least make 500mil domestic right?...right?

 

[JKKS085]

20% is not a standard drop in early May. It's actually a very good hold if it happens. Could easily end up closer to 30% though.

It is if you account for the supposedly deflated Saturday (which by the drop displayed in the estimates seems more than just a theory right now). But hey, let's see how it performs during the week days and next week end. I would just be extremely surprised if the next week end drop is under 55% (unless it goes up in the actuals). But we'll see.

 

[Evil Twin]

Cinemascore is one of the biggest frauds ever. Big pre-sold blockbusters with rabid fanbases always result in an inflated score. Wait until the sugar rush wears off after people get home and ruminate on a film a bit and you get the real score. And real word of mouth.

Word of mouth this time is more mixed. Even those that think Avengers 2 is a better movie aren't being as hyperbolically positive as they were for Avengers.

Avengers 2 is still going to be massively successful. But, we probably also should realize that just about everything went right for the first film in regards to box office.