Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[paulogonza]

I am very disappointed with the uS boxoffice, of corse is a big number, but much less than expected, in the other side overseas the movie is very strong, here in Brazil is close to beat the first in one or two weeks it will happen.

 

[Steyin]

I knew this wasn't going to score #1 last night at my theater since there were numerous shows that weren't sold at. There went my predictions. Oh well, maybe next time.

 

[Iceman]

Will be very interesting to see where Civil War and the Infinity Wars land now.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Will be very interesting to see where Civil War and the Infinity Wars land now.

I think word of mouth hurt AoU.

 

[Tony Stark]

A1 was 100M in week 2, IM3 was 72M in week 2, I'm going to split the difference and say 85M for next week for sure, If it has a good recovery and WOM, it could do as high as 93M.

Not sure what the buzz is for Mad Max, but I think it will have a shot for no. 1 for 3 weeks.

I will not be surprised if it's over 190M when the actuals come in.

I'm going to say around $525M domestic because I think this will have a stronger than expected multiplier. Big question for me is how it holds against Tomorrowland. Marvel can't be too happy with Disney for planting an internal competing film so close. I do think Tomorrowland looks terrific, and could be a surprise hit.

If it can hold a solid no. 2 that week then I think it will be north of $500M, if not then this may end up in the high $400's.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think word of mouth hurt AoU.

Impossible to judge that now. You'll know more next week. There are too many factors at play here. The fight, game 7 in the NBA playoffs (which delayed the start of the fight), the lack of 3D revenue vs A1, the lack of theater count vs. A1 even though it had more screens, the fact that it wasn't the novelty A1 was, the darker look to the film vs the more family friendly A1.


This just goes to show how impossible Box office is to predict. No one called A1 for being the top movie of 2012, making 1.5 B WW. TDKR was considered by most the most anticipated film of the year, and people even predicted it breaking A1's record months after it already set the record.

It took a long time for Spider-man to break the 100M weekend barrier, it took 11 more years for Avengers to break the 200M barrier.

If Star Wars 7 doesn't break the record with what will be the widest release ever, it will be a long time before anything else does.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I wonder what type of drop we will get in the second weekend. Hopefully nothing too steep.

 

[Frodo]

I was a bit surprised myself at the results, though I can see why the studios would point to the fight as a reason. Out here in LA, we also had the western conference finals, so alot of the places which got the best business were the ones either showcasing the fight or the western conference. Other than that, everywhere else was pretty dead.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Impossible to judge that now. You'll know more next week. There are too many factors at play here. The fight, game 7 in the NBA playoffs (which delayed the start of the fight), the lack of 3D revenue vs A1, the lack of theater count vs. A1 even though it had more screens, the fact that it wasn't the novelty A1 was, the darker look to the film vs the more family friendly A1.


This just goes to show how impossible Box office is to predict. No one called A1 for being the top movie of 2012, making 1.5 B WW. TDKR was considered by most the most anticipated film of the year, and people even predicted it breaking A1's record months after it already set the record.

It took a long time for Spider-man to break the 100M weekend barrier, it took 11 more years for Avengers to break the 200M barrier.

If Star Wars 7 doesn't break the record with what will be the widest release ever, it will be a long time before anything else does.

Star Wars will break the 2 billion mark in my opinion.

 

[Tony Stark]

Will be very interesting to see where Civil War and the Infinity Wars land now.

I'm going to say IW pt. 1 will be below AoU. Pt 2 could be the biggest thing ever. I say this because RDJ is only contracted for one more film after CW, so I don't think he or Chris Hemsworth are going to appear in pt.1 and that will have a toll at the box office.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Will be very interesting to see where Civil War and the Infinity Wars land now.

I still think Civil war has chance at 400 million domesticly.If the russio brothers and the writers have film with same quality as Winter solder+Robert Downey JR it will do well.Plus it should feature first appearance of new Spider-man even if it's only a small role.

Directors and writers of Winter Soldier/Civil war may help Infinity Wars feel
fresh.

AOU Is still likely to land in 500 million range domesticly.Even Spider-man 2 and empire strikes back did less domesticly than Spider-man and Star Wars.

 

[Tony Stark]

Star Wars will break the 2 billion mark in my opinion.

It's going to have the best chance, but I'm going to be reserved with saying "film x" will break any kind of record, because right now the box office sites are so filled with hype that until you see the actual results it's hard to believe any of the data.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It's going to have the best chance, but I'm going to be reserved with saying "film x" will break any kind of record, because right now the box office sites are so filled with hype that until you see the actual results it's hard to believe any of the data.

The hype for AoU was crazy and yet it'll likely fall $20 million below TA1. Hype can only drive a movie so far and outside circumstances far from the film's control can really affect the box office total. AoU just had so much working against it to hit TA1's total, which is just a huge total and not an easy feat to accomplish again. Even though it failed to set a new OW record, AoU did help Marvel have the top 3 opening weekends of all-time.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I still think Civil war has chance at 400 million domesticly.If the russio brothers and the writers have film with same quality as Winter solder+Robert Downey JR it will do well.Plus it should feature first appearance of new Spider-man even if it's only a small role.

Directors and writers of Winter Soldier/Civil war may help Infinity Wars feel
fresh.

AOU Is still likely to land in 500 million range domesticly.Even Spider-man 2 and empire strikes back did less domesticly than Spider-man and Star Wars.

CW is going to most Avenger-ish movie of all the solo movies. I think it has a chance to top IM3's totals, but it will need a good script, a good tone, and most of all, some good luck.

 

[ManofSteel37013]

I still think Civil war has chance at 400 million domesticly.If the russio brothers and the writers have film with same quality as Winter solder+Robert Downey JR it will do well.Plus it should feature first appearance of new Spider-man even if it's only a small role.

Directors and writers of Winter Soldier/Civil war may help Infinity Wars feel
fresh.

AOU Is still likely to land in 500 million range domesticly.Even Spider-man 2 and empire strikes back did less domesticly than Spider-man and Star Wars.

I think BvS could have a shot at the OW record or at least a higher Domestic gross since it opens in March and really has nearly 5 weeks of no real competition until CW

 

[8ulk]

I honestly dont understand why people hated ultron. he was a DECENT vilain.

Like we get Darth Vaders and Jokers so often and we have to crap on Ultron. ???
For MCU standards he was a kickass vilain.

Now about the overall plot of the movie.

It was great. Seriously people expect nonsense furius 7 / transformers 4 action for 2 hours straight ? Cant handle some plot development ? The farm scenes were fine if you ask me.

The overlal tone of the movie was darker than the 1st Avengers why did people disliked that ? I dont get it. They cant just copy paste the 1st movie. it has to evolve and be a thing of its own.

now about that WW gross. It seems people expecting a 1,4 bil WW or lower dotn have a clue about how WW grosses work or how much China expanded.

Even if the movie dissapoints in the USA with 450 mil total its still guaranteed to beat The Avengers 1,52 bil record.

1,1 bil OS is a lock. Im expecting a minimum of 1,2 bil.

And still 500 mil for US isnt out of the question yet. We will know when we get the 2nd weekend numbers which will be indicative for the legs it will get down the road.

If it gets 100+ it will definately make it to 500 mil and 1,75 bil WW

 

[redfirebird2008]

If Star Wars 7 doesn't break the record with what will be the widest release ever, it will be a long time before anything else does.

I don't think it can get there in December. Biggest December opening is Hobbit at under $85m. If SW7 is received as well as something like TA1, it would not surprise me if SW8 gives the record a run for its money. SW8 comes out in the summer.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You know I want to be right but if I'm not whatever.

This post was so Clueless. Love it Spidey. t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

187,656,000
Boxoficemojo has now posted estimated weekend figures of $187,656,000. Overseas of $340m for $527,656,000 worldwide but that's only up to Friday overseas so we'll see where this ends up by Monday. The overseas weekend drops should be soft with new territories opening.

Did China open this weekend?

Their 3D ratio was only 5% apart.

TA1's 3D share broke down like this: 40% RealD 3D, 8% IMAX 3D, 4% premium large format 3D.

TA2's 3D share breaks down like this: 30% RealD 3D, 9.6% IMAX 3D, 7.2% premium large format 3D.

Well there goes that argument.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

It's going to have the best chance, but I'm going to be reserved with saying "film x" will break any kind of record, because right now the box office sites are so filled with hype that until you see the actual results it's hard to believe any of the data.

The hype has been unreal.... and we are still 7 months away!

 

[ManofSteel37013]

I don't think it can get there in December. Biggest December opening is Hobbit at under $85m. If SW7 is received as well as something like TA1, it would not surprise me if SW8 gives the record a run for its money. SW8 comes out in the summer.

Boxoffice.com has SW7 making 570M domestic. I think this movie will be huge because of the original cast coming back. only thing that will kill SW7 is if they kill off one of the original cast like the rumors say will happen

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Did China open this weekend?


Well there goes that argument.

China opens up May 12th so a big chunk of the overseas box office won't be known for another couple weeks.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I honestly dont understand why people hated ultron. he was a DECENT vilain.

Like we get Darth Vaders and Jokers so often and we have to crap on Ultron. ???
For MCU standards he was a kickass vilain.

Now about the overall plot of the movie.

It was great. Seriously people expect nonsense furius 7 / transformers 4 action for 2 hours straight ? Cant handle some plot development ? The farm scenes were fine if you ask me.

The overlal tone of the movie was darker than the 1st Avengers why did people disliked that ? I dont get it. They cant just copy paste the 1st movie. it has to evolve and be a thing of its own.

now about that WW gross. It seems people expecting a 1,4 bil WW or lower dotn have a clue about how WW grosses work or how much China expanded.

Even if the movie dissapoints in the USA with 450 mil total its still guaranteed to beat The Avengers 1,52 bil record.

1,1 bil OS is a lock. Im expecting a minimum of 1,2 bil.

And still 500 mil for US isnt out of the question yet. We will know when we get the 2nd weekend numbers which will be indicative for the legs it will get down the road.

If it gets 100+ it will definately make it to 500 mil and 1,75 bil WW

Uh, where are all these Vaders and Jokers exactly? I love Ultron by the way.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

China opens up May 12th so a big chunk of the overseas box office won't be known for another couple weeks.

Thank you good sir.

I don't think it can get there in December. Biggest December opening is Hobbit at under $85m. If SW7 is received as well as something like TA1, it would not surprise me if SW8 gives the record a run for its money. SW8 comes out in the summer.

Star Wars will be aiming for long term Box Office records, not opening day or weekend numbers. That is just how December works out at the Box Office.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Star Wars will be aiming for long term Box Office records, not opening day or weekend numbers. That is just how December works out at the Box Office.

Yep, lots of holidays during that time so the grosses are spread out more over a 2-3 week time period than what we would normally see with big openers in the summer.