Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Some expect Guardians to be Marvel Studios' first major blunder since Avengers.

Are they right?

What's your prediction for the worldwide gross and is it enough for a sequel?

 

So predictions for the weekend from Deadline are $92-96 mil. Its getting an A cinemascore by the way.

 

FORBES: $37.8M Friday
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...-scores-huge-38m-friday-may-nab-100m-weekend/

Walt Disney and Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy started its opening weekend with a bang, earning $37.8 million on its opening Friday. Now that includes $11.2m worth of Thursday previews, giving the film a still superb $26.6m during normal Friday business hours. The previous record for an August opening weekend was The Bourne Ultimatum with $69m back in August 2007. James Gunn’s space opera might cross on its second day of release. The film earned 29% of its Friday money on Thursday, which is just a slightly higher percentage than the 28% earned by Iron Man 3 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. As such, it is still reasonable to presume that the film will pull in the same over/under 2.5x weekend multiplier as most Marvel films for their debut weekends. If that holds over the weekend, expect Guardians of the Galaxy to earn $91m (2.4x) to $100m (2.65x) for the weekend.

If it ends up a bit frontloaded due to the somewhat off-the-beaten-path source material, even with the word of mouth and strong reviews, it may have to “settle” for a 2.3x multiplier (The Dark Knight – $67m Friday/$158m weekend) and a sad, shameful $88m debut weekend. However, and this is being a little speculative, it may well be the kind of film with such sterling word-of-mouth and buzz that the chatter actually affects the opening weekend. As a general rule, opening weekend is about marketing while everything after that is about quality. But there are a few exceptions to the rule, such as (offhand) Gravity and The Sixth Sense. It’s not out of the question for the much-beloved (thus far) Guardians of the Galaxy to pull something closer to a 3.0x weekend multiplier. It’s not likely, since movie-going as a whole is more front loaded, but it’s not entirely out of the question.

But more likely it will end up in the Marvel wheelhouse regarding opening weekends and wait until next weekend to cash in on goodwill. Since opening day is of course about marketing, Walt Disney deserves a gold star in that department. From the get-go, their marketing campaign as been a textbook example of how to sell an unknown property to the masses. From initial teasers that empathized with viewer ignorance with John C. Reilly playing audience surrogate and emphasizing that the characters in the film didn’t know who the Guardians of the Galaxy were either to later trailers that sold somewhat generic big-scale spectacle and revealed just a bit of the talking raccoon and talking tree, this was a dynamite marketing campaign that should be taught in advertising schools.

But more likely it will end up in the Marvel wheelhouse regarding opening weekends and wait until next weekend to cash in on goodwill. Since opening day is of course about marketing, Walt Disney deserves a gold star in that department. From the get-go, their marketing campaign as been a textbook example of how to sell an unknown property to the masses. From initial teasers that empathized with viewer ignorance with John C. Reilly playing audience surrogate and emphasizing that the characters in the film didn’t know who the Guardians of the Galaxy were either to later trailers that sold somewhat generic big-scale spectacle and revealed just a bit of the talking raccoon and talking tree, this was a dynamite marketing campaign that should be taught in advertising schools.

Of course, it helps that James Gunn and company delivered a winning final product, and so Disney screened it early and often and let the review embargo drop right before Comic-Con. And now, since the marketing campaign kept quite a few narrative and visual surprises out of the clips and trailers, it may well reap the benefit of audiences discovering their favorite beats in a theater, which is a major driving force for word-of-mouth and repeat viewings. Or not. It may just be another big summer movie that opens with $90 million+ and then fails to hit $250m domestic. I don’t want to proclaim the film as any kind of preemptive box office champion after one day of superlative numbers

But come what may this is a terrific start that firmly establishes that Marvel is a brand name unto itself and a more important marketing variable than whatever property it happens to be producing this time around. So yes, to answer a question I asked last April after Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened with $95 million, Marvel is presumably now Pixar. They may well have the biggest non-sequel debut in their short history, depending on if it can top the $102m debut of Iron Man. If it hits above $93m, Disney can claim both two of the biggest three debut weekends of the year (behind Paramount’s $100m debut for Transformers: Age of Extinction) with those weekends falling outside of the stereotypical blockbuster season.

(See link for the rest of the article)

 

GOTG has the highest OD of the 2014 superhero movies, beating Cap 2, with $37.8m (including Thursday night previews of $11.2m) This is the third highest of the year behind TF4's $41.8m and Godzilla's $38.4m. Not counting previews, the Friday take alone is around $26.6m, just shy of Cap 2's $26.7m.

The other $90m+ openers of the year's OD without previews:

Cap 2: $26.7m (95m weekend)

ASM2: $26.5m (91.6m weekend)

Godzilla: $29.1m (93.2m weekend)

DOFP: $27.4m (90.8m, deflated Saturday due to Memorial Day holiday on that Monday)

TF4: $33m (100m)

GOTG: $26.6m

Doing really well

 

I figure if they can win me over, a person who had zero knowledge about this team and even less of an interest in seeing it, and convert me into this person who couldn't wait for Friday to get here to finally see it- then they could win over just about everyone else.

Its En Vogue to now say that this movie wasn't a risk and the success was expected, but we all know that couldn't be further from the truth. These numbers are nothing short of spectacular and well deserved.

 

What do you mean risk ? Was there really even 1 in a million chance this movie woudlnt make its money back ?

We knew beforehand it would have a budget of 150-200 mil..
..And we also knew that with the sole exception of The Incredible Hulk that all MCU films made 370mil or more.
And with the everexpanding OS markets plus the recognition that this brand has i'd say its was pretty naeve to think this was a risky move. Even at the time it was anounced.

Risky in terms of not doing Avengers numbers doesnt make sense. What was the risk really ? enlighten me plz.

We re not talking DC nor Marvel here. Its an MCU film. Never gonna flop.
Just watch what the rest of the pack will bring.

P.S. Sony wont go bankrupt this year. Nor next year. PS4 sales boosted its earnings. The probability (for bankruptcy) fell from 79% to 48% . Its not going to happen soon. Maybe in 4-5 years who knows.

 

I wonder how the movie is doing in foreign territories.

 

Each Hollywood blockbuster usually gets a Promotion and Advertising budget roughly equal to half it's production budget. In the case of the $170 M Guardians of the Galaxy, that would mean Disney spent roughly $250 M, making, distributing and promoting the film.

Studios only get about 50 cents on the dollar for a ticket, meaning Guardians of the Galaxy has to gross over $500 M to break even. Considering Iron Man and Spider-Man are the only two marvel characters to break $500 M in their first movie, this was a HUGE risk.

 

Everything you do effects the brand. The good fosters goodwill and adds to credibility, the bad tarnishes and hurts the brand by creating doubt. The risk I refer to is appealing to the general audiences and making a quality movie taken seriously by critics and loved by the consensus.

The beauty of the internet is u don't have to take my word, instead take minutes out of your day and thumb back to tons of posting predicting Marvel's first bomb.

Do u have older posts to the contrary- posts from over a year where u predict box office success and critical acclaim? If so I would love to read them and would gladly list u as the exception to the rule, whereby the most vocal people at that time were less optimistic about the movies prospects.

In a way u perfectly illustrate the point I was making. Today, after the movie has broke records and is trending well, it is quite easy to have the attitude that this was expected all along- it comes across as a way of diminishing the praise the movie is getting for doing better than expected. All these people who 'knew it all along' where nowhere to be found a year or more ago....thats all I'm saying.

Doing something different, unexpected, something that u are guaranteed or assured at how it will be received qualifies as taking a risk in my book!

 

I can understand Guardians being an unknown risk in terms of introducing new characters,
But a sci fi film released during the summer?
Not that big of a risk really .

 

Sony as a whole wont go bankrupt. But they may have to eventually sell off their movie division

 

Not to mention the Mouse's investment in animation, video games, clothes, Halloween costumes, Disney Infinity characters and Rocket plush toys. And the possibility of killing off Cosmic Marvel before it even started. If GOTG flopped, Disney was looking at a significant write off.

 

Edge of Tomorrow and Oblivion both disappointed at the box office and After Earth and John Carter bombed.

 

Not to mention GL. A "known" property according to some DC fans when pitted against Thor and CATFA back in 2011.

 

Exactly. Right now they are probably taking funds from other divisions that are making money to help the movie division and while it can work temporarily it is not a long term solution.

 

...

 

It will be so amazing if this actually beats Cap 2's opening weekend. Really happy for the film and the cast/crew. They deserve this.

 

I'd like to add that 55 m is Incredible Hulk territory which is considered Marvel Studios' only financial disappointment.

 

Which was so silly. Captain America was always more well known than Green Lantern. It's something every box office analyst pointed out that summer. That Captain America was the only new franchise general audiences recognized by name of the three.

Either way, Every Marvel Cinematic Universe property is now more well known than Green Lantern, and even Wonder Woman. Good job, DC.

 

But it may sell it's franchises to raise some cash

 

exactly.

 

This is a weird summer indeed. Who could have possibly predicted even 1 year ago that not only would a Captain America movie but a freakin Guardians of the Galaxy movie will most likely outgross a Spider-Man film at least domestically?

 

Agreed, especially about Wonder Woman. For the life of me I don't understand why people continue to call a part of DC's trinity when she's not. I'd argue that Flash is more popular than she is right now, a character that has had no media exposure since the 70's. I'm on record as saying I think BvS will make more than Cap but Cap will screw up BvS box office, meaning its done its job. But thinking about it, its no guarantee that BvS will win that weekend because Marvel/Disney know how to promote the crap out of a film and its not a slam dunk as people think.