Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[LucDisfilm19]

By the first weekend of September, Guardians should reach $600M worldwide. Let's hope Japan and China can help it pass $1 billion or more worldwide at the end of it's global run.

 

[ctsketch]

I doubt 1 billion. I think $700+ is a good goal

 

[kedrell]

Looking like a $1,662,402 Monday for a 66.09% drop. About $275K less than I expected but still well within overall expectations. Should bump up 20-25% or so today for around a $1.95M-$2.1M Tuesday.

Currently at $253,118,471. Probably not beating Cap2 on Thursday now. Friday is when it'll become #1 for the year.

 

[ctsketch]

Labor Day will bump for sure

 

[smashmode]

So yeah my initial prediction of 500 million is going to be blown out of the water, and I am glad.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Yeah, I'm predicting Friday is when GOTG is #1 in America and gets $500M worldwide.

 

[kedrell]

And another factor I forgot to consider is that the Thursday just before Labor Day 90% of the time has a very soft drop in the single digit %'s from Wednesday(if I stuck with my TF4 template it'd have been more like a 20% drop) so revising my figures gave me a $1,662,402 Monday; a $2,061,378 Tuesday(guessed a 24% bump); a $1,694,453 Thursday(matching TF4's 17.8% drop) and a $1,609,730 Thursday(5% drop) for a weekday total of $7,027,963 and a DOM total of $258,484,032 heading into the weekend.

 

[Gr0oT]

I doubt it. Probably looking at around $50-70M there. Humor is tougher to translate than an explosion. That's why comedies are consistently among the worst performers overseas. Even when the OS audience speaks the same language it can be difficult as humor is heavily influenced by the particular culture it comes from. For example, Monty Python is relatively niche' over here in the USA but it was big in it's native Britain. Different cultures and different senses of humor and all that.

Thanks for the thoughtful breakdown, to it's credit Guardians atleast has gorgeous visuals but it definitely isn't constant explosions like Bayformers.

So far as language thing the trick is to invest some time learning what is relevant and funny to local audiences. I'm from Montreal, the French version here is France French but apparently it was great.

I actually prefer Family Guy in Quebec French since the humour and jokes are translated to match the ignorance of the worse of backwater Quebecers.

GOTG will make it to 300 mil, but badly. i'm giving it 300-305 tops. I could be wrong but it's a long steep hill to climb to break 300 mil.

I read on rottentomatoes that "surpassing $700M this fall should be easy" once released in certain key foreign markets. If true, that's ridiculous. Marvel is killing it! I have no words for how shocked and amazed I am, good for them.

Well these are two divergent predictions.
I put my vote in at $600 million and I'm thinking that is about spot on.

 

[8ulk]

By the first weekend of September, Guardians should reach $600M worldwide. Let's hope Japan and China can help it pass $1 billion or more worldwide at the end of it's global run.

WUT ?

Hehe. IT wont make a Billion dollars my friend. China & Japan will not make 400 mil.

675-725 mil is the more likely outcome according to projections.

285 mil DOM
405 mil OS...

...or something close to that.

 

[Docker2.0]

WUT ?

Hehe. IT wont make a Billion dollars my friend. China & Japan will not make 400 mil.

675-725 mil is the more likely outcome according to projections.

285 mil DOM
405 mil OS...

...or something close to that.

Dude, why are you so condescending of other's box office projections? He can dream can't he? I've seen you take this attitude with numerous people in this thread. No one could have predicted this Domestic success of GoG so you never know. Relax on other people's projections.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Dude, why are you so condescending of other's box office projections? He can dream can't he? I've seen you take this attitude with numerous people in this thread. No one could have predicted this Domestic success of GoG so you never know. Relax on other people's projections.

Thanks for defending me.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Dude, why are you so condescending of other's box office projections? He can dream can't he? I've seen you take this attitude with numerous people in this thread. No one could have predicted this Domestic success of GoG so you never know. Relax on other people's projections.

There's good reason to be skeptical of him. He's the same guy that was spamming other websites with box office stuff under the names "Al Patrickson" and "Alessio Pasquali." He's had several posts deleted because he posted the same junk here. When a person posts in only one section, it's hard to trust what they say since they have tunnel vision and aren't very good about carrying on a conversation about anything else. I've disregarded just about everything he's said because he's been wrong so many times after the opening weekend.

 

[kedrell]

In order for this to miss $650M WW it'd have to outright bomb in China with something like $10M or less. Highly unlikely.

 

[Docker2.0]

Thanks for defending me.

There's good reason to be skeptical of him. He's the same guy that was spamming other websites with box office stuff under the names "Al Patrickson" and "Alessio Pasquali." He's had several posts deleted because he posted the same junk here. When a person posts in only one section, it's hard to trust what they say since they have tunnel vision and aren't very good about carrying on a conversation about anything else. I've disregarded just about everything he's said because he's been wrong so many times after the opening weekend.

Yeah I kind of figured. But it gets kind of annoying when someone just constantly puts down other people's opinion or predictions when it's not really a science.

 

[InCali]

WUT ?

Hehe. IT wont make a Billion dollars my friend. China & Japan will not make 400 mil.

675-725 mil is the more likely outcome according to projections.

285 mil DOM
405 mil OS...

...or something close to that.

Just out of curiosity, what were your early projections (opening weekend, final tally; Domestic and WW)?

EDIT: Even at this late date, my guess is that you are significantly underestimating the final box office numbers (esp. domestic). With the Labor Day weekend coming up, I'm pegging GotG to finish this weekend in the range of $280M (about $20M over the weekend) and with a very, very weak lineup in the next few weeks along with the legs it has shown, $285M looks like what it will have sometime late next week or early next weekend. I see it easily hitting $300M (we shall see). I confess to not being on top of the OS projections, but $405M seems low to me also.

 

[KangConquers]

I doubt 1 billion. I think $700+ is a good goal

I think this is going to be very difficult to achieve. Current foreign territories will top out under $260 M, if not $250 M. This would require GoTG to make between $150-200 M in China and Japan.


I see $285 M DOM/ $370 M INT for $655 M WW

 

[ctsketch]

I think this is going to be very difficult to achieve. Current foreign territories will top out under $260 M, if not $250 M. This would require GoTG to make between $150-200 M in China and Japan.


I see $285 M DOM/ $370 M INT for $655 M WW

Greece 4 September 2014
Bangladesh 5 September 2014
Cyprus 5 September 2014
Japan 13 September 2014
China 10 October 2014
Switzerland 22 October 2014 (Italian speaking region) Italy 22 October 2014

 

[Spiderdevil]

So far as language thing the trick is to invest some time learning what is relevant and funny to local audiences. I'm from Montreal, the French version here is France French but apparently it was great.

Agree to that
Here in India they gave Yondu and his crooks the kind of accent which is used by local thugs and suited him pretty well

And surprisingly they translated some jokes in such a way that I laughed more at the local version than when I saw it later in English

 

[marcvader]

BOM Estimates for Tuesday = Dom $2,100,000 WW $500,500,000

 

[LucDisfilm19]

BOM Estimates for Tuesday = Dom $2,100,000 WW $500,000,000

YAY! Guardians of the Galaxy has made $500M worldwide in more lesser days than Frozen.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Lets hope the remaining countries coming up can help get Guardians of the Galaxy to attempt a shot over a billion worldwide, China and Japan in particular. Let's hope the people in those 2 countries think of this as better than Transformers. Fingers crossed. This mvie continues to surprise. Let's hope it can surprise a little more.

 

[kedrell]

BOM Estimates for Tuesday = Dom $2,100,000 WW $500,500,000

Good, that Tuesday number was the high end of my guess yesterday. Nice that it's crossed half a billion now.

 

[kedrell]

I think this is going to be very difficult to achieve. Current foreign territories will top out under $260 M, if not $250 M. This would require GoTG to make between $150-200 M in China and Japan.


I see $285 M DOM/ $370 M INT for $655 M WW

I don't see how it only makes another $15M from the rest of the countries it's already in as it's OS total right now is $245.5M. It made $7.7M from those countries in the last 2 days alone as it's OS total Sunday night was $237.6M. I'd see $275M as a minimum from those countries at this point. And since it's at $255M right now DOM and should nab another $3-4M before Friday starts the Labor Day weekend after the holiday it should be within $5M of that total you guessed for North America. They'd have to pretty much pull it completely from theaters for it to only get $285M, which isn't going to happen. $300M may not be 100% locked but the odds are 80-90% in it's favor of getting there. I figure that within 2 weeks after Labor Day it should have crossed that mark.

So as I see it: $275+$300M= $575M WW before China, Japan, Germany, Italy and the rest even start to kick in and all those should be good for at least another $100M.

 

[InCali]

I don't see how it only makes another $15M from the rest of the countries it's already in as it's OS total right now is $245.5M. It made $7.7M from those countries in the last 2 days alone as it's OS total Sunday night was $237.6M. I'd see $275M as a minimum from those countries at this point. And since it's at $255M right now DOM and should nab another $3-4M before Friday starts the Labor Day weekend after the holiday it should be within $5M of that total you guessed for North America. They'd have to pretty much pull it completely from theaters for it to only get $285M, which isn't going to happen. $300M may not be 100% locked but the odds are 80-90% in it's favor of getting there. I figure that within 2 weeks after Labor Day it should have crossed that mark.

Hey!! Stop that!!! That's no fair. You're using logic.

 

[kedrell]

Also after the weekend, the MCU should be less than $100M away from $7 billion.