Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Vincanws]

I'm calling it:
$293 M US DOM
$361 M International

$654 WW

 

[kedrell]

I think it'll do $1.7M today and $1.6M tomorrow and head into the weekend with $258.5M

 

[Flint Marko]

So to recap, in the past my projected box office numbers for the MCU films have been as follows:

Avengers 800 m
Iron Man 3 800 m
Thor 2 500 m
Cap 2 500 m
GoTG 500 m

I have a habit of playing it conservative. Glad to see I was wrong yet again.

 

[kedrell]

Boxoffice . com expects a $20.5M 4 day weekend for GotG and for it to remain #1 with TMNT at #2 with $18.5M(which at this point I'd give a 50/50 shot at making it to $200M DOM):

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2014-08-weekend-forecast-the-november-man-as-aboveso-below

 

[SomeOldGuy]

With the disclaimer that I'm no box office expert, if it's basically at $280 million after this weekend I can't see how it doesn't top $300 million.

 

[TheVileOne]

I think it will probably be less than $280 million after this weekend. But I still think $300 million is likely.

 

[kedrell]

If it misses $280M on the holiday it won't be by much. It'll be like less than $1M away from it.

 

[TheVileOne]

Guardians of the Galaxy pretty much saved one of the worst summer movie seasons ever pretty much single handedly.

 

[Spiderdevil]

So to recap, in the past my projected box office numbers for the MCU films have been as follows:

Avengers 800 m
Iron Man 3 800 m
Thor 2 500 m
Cap 2 500 m
GoTG 500 m

I have a habit of playing it conservative. Glad to see I was wrong yet again.

Marvel has made 600M a lock for any movie they make no matter the character

I hope this increases to 700-800M after AoU

 

[InCali]

Marvel has made 600M a lock for any movie they make no matter the character

I hope this increases to 700-800M after AoU

Not to nitpick, but I don't think that's entirely true. GotG has consistently exceeded box office expectations. At first, it was flat out brilliant marketing. I'm a long time Marvel comic book aficionado due to the fact that there was an old, used comic book store near Langer's (7th and Alvarado if you're ever in the neighborhood and want a "killer", but expensive pastrami sandwich....ahh, but I digress). I used to buy used comics for pennies and still have Spiderman #8, 15, and Daredevil #1 among others of the same genre. The point is that even though I grew up on Marvel Comics, I had NO idea who the Guardians of the Galaxy were when I first heard about them awhile back and I didn't care. The Disney marketing whiz guys and gals totally sold me on the movie and I was at the Cinemark at Howard Hughes watching the early Friday show in XD from my customary 3rd row center seat.

Getting someone to go see the movie through flash and bang is one thing; getting repeat customers and good word of mouth, however, requires a really good movie. IMO, GotG is just that and THAT is why it continues to do so well (along with a relatively weak August/September movie lineup). While the Marvel brand is so strong right now that it undoubtedly gives a movie a huge lift, I'm not sure it guarantees the level of return you suggest (though I confess you "might" be right). In any case, the best way to maintain their brand is to continue to put out movies people will enjoy. If they take a short term view and start flooding us with junk, they'll only damage the goodwill they've built (BTW, I think they're smart enough to know all of this).

Speaking of goodwill, can you "imagine" how much the GotG sequel will have? If Gunn does anywhere near the job he did on the original, that movie is going to make so much money, it's going to be ridiculous. Not Avengers money, but A LOT.

My 2 cents (maybe it's more like 2 bucks with inflation and because I tend to blather on about things).

 

[Spiderdevil]

Not to nitpick, but I don't think that's entirely true. GotG has consistently exceeded box office expectations. At first, it was flat out brilliant marketing. I'm a long time Marvel comic book aficionado due to the fact that there was an old, used comic book store near Langer's (7th and Alvarado if you're ever in the neighborhood and want a "killer", but expensive pastrami sandwich....ahh, but I digress). I used to buy used comics for pennies and still have Spiderman #8, 15, and Daredevil #1 among others of the same genre. The point is that even though I grew up on Marvel Comics, I had NO idea who the Guardians of the Galaxy were when I first heard about them awhile back and I didn't care. The Disney marketing whiz guys and gals totally sold me on the movie and I was at the Cinemark at Howard Hughes watching the early Friday show in XD from my customary 3rd row center seat.

Getting someone to go see the movie through flash and bang is one thing; getting repeat customers and good word of mouth, however, requires a really good movie. IMO, GotG is just that and THAT is why it continues to do so well (along with a relatively weak August/September movie lineup). While the Marvel brand is so strong right now that it undoubtedly gives a movie a huge lift, I'm not sure it guarantees the level of return you suggest (though I confess you "might" be right). In any case, the best way to maintain their brand is to continue to put out movies people will enjoy. If they take a short term view and start flooding us with junk, they'll only damage the goodwill they've built (BTW, I think they're smart enough to know all of this).

Speaking of goodwill, can you "imagine" how much the GotG sequel will have? If Gunn does anywhere near the job he did on the original, that movie is going to make so much money, it's going to be ridiculous. Not Avengers money, but A LOT.

My 2 cents (maybe it's more like 2 bucks with inflation and because I tend to blather on about things).

Well of course they need to keep chucking out good movies to maintain goodwill

But not to sound cocky and with due respect to all other studios,Marvel is the most consistent out there(after Pixar) both in terms of critical reception and box office performance

They are making CBMs which are so different from each other and yet are really good and exist within the same universe.And they are doing it with such ease.While studios like Sony and WB are struggling to understand characters as simple as Spider-man and Superman,Marvel delivers an awesome movie about a talking Raccoon and a tree.The sky is the limit for them with close to 1500 characters to choose from

Even though it might seem a bit arrogant but I don't think one or two average/below average movies will not hurt Marvel's goodwill by much,because Marvel,unlike other studios which enter a vicious cycle of bad movies(X3--Origins,SM3---TASM2) know how to come back and they have demonstrated that multiple times(IM3 after IM2,TWS was way better than TFA,Hulk was received so well in TA after an underwhelming TIH)

And also like you said,Disney's marketing has a lot to do with it

 

[marcvader]

The only thing the Marvel/Disney brand guarantees is a huge opening weekend. Legs is purely up to quality and competition.

 

[8ulk]

Just out of curiosity, what were your early projections (opening weekend, final tally; Domestic and WW)?

1st of all i was the 1st to accurately predict the exact gross of X-DOFP.
I predicted (more like projexted) a 230 mil DOM & 515 mil OS for 745 mil WW.
Even though it was at it 2nd week its still a good prediction if you consider that most people doubted than DOFP wil do 220+ DOM and 450+ OS. Most of them even doubted that 675 mil WW was a lock even though the movie had 340+ mil WW in its 2nd weekend and 500 mil in its 3rd. go figure. even boxofficemojo was putting DOFP at 220 mil DOM and 480 mil OS. so yeah...


Now as far as GoTG i predicted before the movie opened a 575-650 mil gross and after its 4th day at the box office i predicted a 675-725 mil total which is now obviously happenning. 675-725 mil WW is a safe bet.

Marvel studios will make the 600 mil mark WW in every single movie it releases from now on NOMMATER how good the movie is. why ? because people like cinematic universes. The avengers effect has an explanation. its not just an blurry phrase. "the avengers effect". It has a meaning.

MCU is now a brand.
People like Superhero movies when done right.
People like connected movies in the same universe.
its not just an effect without meaning.

 

[Erzengel]

Has GOTG been released in every international market yet?

 

[InCali]

1st of all i was the 1st to accurately predict the exact gross of X-DOFP.
I predicted (more like projexted) a 230 mil DOM & 515 mil OS for 745 mil WW.
Even though it was at it 2nd week its still a good prediction if you consider that most people doubted than DOFP wil do 220+ DOM and 450+ OS. Most of them even doubted that 675 mil WW was a lock even though the movie had 340+ mil WW in its 2nd weekend and 500 mil in its 3rd. go figure. even boxofficemojo was putting DOFP at 220 mil DOM and 480 mil OS. so yeah...


Now as far as GoTG i predicted before the movie opened a 575-650 mil gross and after its 4th day at the box office i predicted a 675-725 mil total which is now obviously happenning. 675-725 mil WW is a safe bet.

Marvel studios will make the 600 mil mark WW in every single movie it releases from now on NOMMATER how good the movie is. why ? because people like cinematic universes. The avengers effect has an explanation. its not just an blurry phrase. "the avengers effect". It has a meaning.

MCU is now a brand.
People like Superhero movies when done right.
People like connected movies in the same universe.
its not just an effect without meaning.

Out of nothing other than my own eagerness to see GotG and a feeling that there were quite a few people like me out there, I thought the opening weekend would be somewhere in the $85M range (this prediction being the week it opened). The week before that, I figured about $75M, but I had the sense that something was building out there.

I didn't listen much to those who said "No one knows who they are" or "no one wants to see a talking raccoon." because I didn't really know who they were and still wanted to see it and I "did" want to see a talking Raccoon as well as a talking tree type of thing. You and others who say everything will be at least 600M WW may be correct. I think that's overstating things, but who knows for sure. If it's a good movie, I agree that 600M is a no-brainer. I hope you're right because I love these kinds of movies and as long as they keep making money, the movies will keep on coming out.

I wonder how people will feel about it when new actors take over the characters. I wonder if they'll connect as well to new actors or if they'll have an image of who Thor, CA, etc. "really" are??? Reboots are fraught with peril; especially when they follow closely on the heels of the original. I got a little taste of that in the Spiderman reboot.

A new Lord of the Rings???

 

[Tymminator]

Has GOTG been released in every international market yet?

Nope.

 

[kedrell]

edit

 

[InCali]

Has GOTG been released in every international market yet?

I think the larger markets yet to show it are Japan, China, and Italy.

EDIT: Oh yeah....Germany. Just opened there or will very soon.

 

[Flint Marko]

The only thing the Marvel/Disney brand guarantees is a huge opening weekend. Legs is purely up to quality and competition.

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't every marvel film released so far have pretty good legs, save for maybe TIH?

 

[Spiderdevil]

I wonder how people will feel about it when new actors take over the characters. I wonder if they'll connect as well to new actors or if they'll have an image of who Thor, CA, etc. "really" are??? Reboots are fraught with peril; especially when they follow closely on the heels of the original. I got a little taste of that in the Spider-man reboot.

A new Lord of the Rings???

They don't necessarily need to reboot,just recast
On second though,they don't even need to use the same characters,they can easily retire Iron Man for a decade after TA3 and still be alright

Plus they have a knack of adding on great leads,we now have RDJ,Chris Evans and Hemsworth plus Chris Pratt compared to just RDJ 2-3 years ago
Also they have Winter Soldier lined up to take the mantle later on,or maybe Falcon,they can recast Iron man if they want to(Colin Farrell would be my pick)

 

[Suzanne78]

Love watching this movie continue to defy expectations. Never would've thought it would've outgrossed TF4 domestically. Nor wouldn't have expected it to be the top summer movie or to reach $300 million.

Hoping that $20 million+ estimate for the 4-day holds up.

 

[marcvader]

Wednesday $1.51 mil Dom.Total $256.7 mil.

$1,015,760 behind Legos
$3,031,760 behind TWS

 

[Iceman]

Not long at all till no.2 domestic to date, which is just crazy!

 

[kedrell]

Will be #2 domestic by end of the day today. Only needs $1m to match TLM and will probably be closer to $1.4m-$1.5m.

With a 5% drop today(low drops the Thursday before the Labor Day weekend are common due to people taking that day off as well) it should bring in around $1.43m. That Wednesday drop was about 10% higher than expected(28.6%) but that should be evened out by todays low drop. Should enter the weekend with around $258.2m. It's weekdays this week will only be around $6.7m which is less than expected since I thought it's make at least $7m. So we're looking at a weekday to weekday drop of around 42.1% from last week. For it's weekend to weekend drop to be a full 10% lower than it's weekday drop is surely a sign of schools being back in session.

 

[JKKS085]

Well if it makes 6.7M Mon-Thu that's about $100,000 less than I expected/predicted.
Here's hoping it's gonna make up for it with a great increase over the week end. Even if 280M+ by monday seems to be an uphill battle now, I still think it can gross past 278M rather easily (and possibly past 279M).

If I were to make more long term predictions, I'd say that we're looking at 279.3M after the long week end then the film should be closing on 290M (give or take half a million) the week end after. It'll will probably need another week or so to gross past 300M but it could be about 3 millions away of that milestone on september 14th.