Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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[InCali]

Well if it makes 6.7M Mon-Thu that's about $100,000 less than I expected/predicted.
Here's hoping it's gonna make up for it with a great increase over the week end. Even if 280M+ by monday seems to be an uphill battle now, I still think it can gross past 278M rather easily (and possibly past 279M).

If I were to make more long term predictions, I'd say that we're looking at 279.3M after the long week end then the film should be closing on 290M (give or take half a million) the week end after. It'll will probably need another week or so to gross past 300M but it could be about 3 millions away of that milestone on september 14th.

$100,000 is pocket change (just not in my pockets....). One thing I haven't heard a lot about, but how smart are they looking for picking the Aug 1 release date for GotG? Other than TMNT, there was almost nothing out there and won't be until later in September. Dolphin Tale 2, Maze Runner, and/or Equalizer will probably do okay, but GotG will have had a good, solid month and a half run with minimal competition. That doesn't happen very often.

 

[kedrell]

Yes but Sc2 and ExP3 bombed which isn't something that can be predicted beforehand.

 

[Vincanws]

Well it's already surpassed Winter Soldier's box office in the UK. So we've done our part!

 

[KDM1986]

So glad to see audiences responding this great!

 

[Raiden]

$100,000 is pocket change (just not in my pockets....). One thing I haven't heard a lot about, but how smart are they looking for picking the Aug 1 release date for GotG? Other than TMNT, there was almost nothing out there and won't be until later in September. Dolphin Tale 2, Maze Runner, and/or Equalizer will probably do okay, but GotG will have had a good, solid month and a half run with minimal competition. That doesn't happen very often.

I don't think anybody can say that GOTG would have no competition before the movie comes out. Both Expendables 3 and Sin City 2 were supposed to be big, and none thought these two would bomb. And GOTG also faced TMNT, which is a very well-known property with Michael Bay as the producer. Furthermore, GOTG is an unknown property, and not even Marvel knew how success it would become. It has overcame many obstacles because it is a great movie, not because of the competition (or lack thereof).

 

[Farren]

I'm really impressed with how well it's doing in Russia. It's already beaten ASM2, DoFP, and TWS.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=R2&id=marvel2014a.htm

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Again, I'm no box office expert, but I wonder if with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight they are wishing they got the movie out earlier so there was more time before kids went back to school. I have no idea if that would have made a big difference, though...

 

[kedrell]

Maybe it could have muscled Lucy out of a July opener and opened a week earlier but that's about it.

 

[Farren]

Again, I'm no box office expert, but I wonder if with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight they are wishing they got the movie out earlier so there was more time before kids went back to school. I have no idea if that would have made a big difference, though...

I'm sure Marvel factored that into their decision making process. There were probably a hundred overpaid swirly chair "experts" plugging in dozens of variables we'd never even think of.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm sure. Really, they probably couldn't have hoped for things to work out better. The only competition turned out to be Turtles, and even that wasn't all that stiff.

Of course, the fact it's a great movie doesn't hurt lol. Amazes me that it almost certainly passed the 2009 Star Trek reboot today. Good times in Marvel-land.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm sure. Really, they probably couldn't have hoped for things to work out better. The only competition turned out to be Turtles, and even that wasn't all that stiff.

Of course, the fact it's a great movie doesn't hurt lol. Amazes me that it almost certainly passed the 2009 Star Trek reboot today. Good times in Marvel-land.

 

[InCali]

I don't think anybody can say that GOTG would have no competition before the movie comes out. Both Expendables 3 and Sin City 2 were supposed to be big, and none thought these two would bomb. And GOTG also faced TMNT, which is a very well-known property with Michael Bay as the producer. Furthermore, GOTG is an unknown property, and not even Marvel knew how success it would become. It has overcame many obstacles because it is a great movie, not because of the competition (or lack thereof).

I apologize in advance because it's my nature to be very precise (or at least try to be ). If you read what I wrote closely, it was something along the lines of "how smart are they looking for picking 8/1 as the release date" and a statement that they basically had about a month and a half uninterrupted run (excluding TMNT which I, in fact, brought up). I didn't mean they knew for sure that E3 and Basin City would bomb, but let's look at those movies in a little more detail.

I don't think it takes a genius to figure out that E3 wasn't going to do that well and I'd bet every penny I have that the people who picked the release date knew a lot more about how to do it than I do. I don't know for sure, but I seem to recall that E2 didn't really do that well (way under 100M??) and it "sucked" (IMO). I thought it was pretty much doomed way in advance and had no interest in seeing it.

As far as Basin City, I loved the first one and was definitely going to see the sequel (I did and actually thought it was pretty good. Others may disagree and I confess to loving movies and being a lousy critic.), but, let's face it, it was rated R for very, very good reasons and the first movie didn't do that great at the box office either. I wouldn't take either or my kids to see it and they are 17 and 18. It's a niche movie and, while I had no idea it would bomb as badly as it did, it's the kind of movie that just gets killed by family friendly fare. (Edit: One other thing about this movie. When it first came out, it had a very different feel from just about anything I'd seen before. Sort of like Cloverfield or Blair Witch project; though not in the same way. What I'm saying is that the "look" was unique. All these years later, and I wonder why they waited to long for a follow up, that can't be said anymore.)

TMNT. Agreed. Competition. Someone suggested that maybe a week earlier might have been helpful and maybe they are right, but I can see an argument that having TMNT right on its heels turned out good for GotG and less good for TMNT (which might have done better business and held better if the newness of GotG had been allowed to wear off for another week). Impossible to say for sure.

In any case, my whole point was that whoever picked the date is looking pretty frelling smart right now.

 

[Docker2.0]

Again, I'm no box office expert, but I wonder if with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight they are wishing they got the movie out earlier so there was more time before kids went back to school. I have no idea if that would have made a big difference, though...

I doubt it bro. This is an unknown property that even some comic book fans don't even know so August was perfect for it. I think the sequel will be a different story though.

 

[Suzanne78]

It's basically pushing to finish at $305-$310 or better, the only movie this year to break that barrier. THG and maybe Interstellar or The Hobbit should do better. It's Marvel's best franchise starter since IM1 (not sure if I should count The Avengers as a "franchise starter").

I really don't think Marvel's worried about selected release dates at this point. There's really little guarantee it wouldn't have faded similarly like other movies had this year, which has been a strangely weak and flaccid year at the box office.

 

[InCali]

I doubt it bro. This is an unknown property that even some comic book fans don't even know so August was perfect for it. I think the sequel will be a different story though.

You can put money on the fact that the August 1 opening date of GotG, and it's subsequent success, got some people's attention. I don't know why August isn't considered a good time slot, but it obviously isn't. Kids are still in school and it's at least 4 weeks until that changes. However, If someone wants to take advantage of an August release the way Marvel did, they'll have to make a good movie. That's the tricky part.

 

[KangConquers]

Crazy that Marvel took America by storm in April and in August.

 

[kedrell]

Thursday $1,562,456 which is actually a 3.7% increase and better than hoped for.

$258,297,268 DOM total so far and the weekdays amounted to $6,841,199. Now is #2 of the year until todays numbers come in.

Figuring that next week's weekdays are only Tues-Thurs due to Monday being a holiday and thus a different animal all together, I can see the drop at 45% bringing it to $2.85m.

 

[InCali]

Thursday $1,562,456 which is actually a 3.7% increase and better than hoped for.

$258,297,268 DOM total so far and the weekdays amounted to $6,841,199. Now is #2 of the year until todays numbers come in.

Figuring that next week's weekdays are only Tues-Thurs due to Monday being a holiday and thus a different animal all together, I can see the drop at 45% bringing it to $2.85m.

You seem to know a lot about box office tracking and so forth. Why isn't August considered a good time to release a movie? I can't really see much of a difference between the summer months, but almost all of the box office grosses are relatively low in August. I wonder if "part of it" is a self fulfilling prophecy. August sucks so we won't release our prime movies then so therefore August has poor box office numbers. Why is May so awesome? Why is February often so stinky?

 

[LucDisfilm19]

We have a new international date for Guardians: Bangladesh on September 5th.

 

[Suzanne78]

You seem to know a lot about box office tracking and so forth. Why isn't August considered a good time to release a movie? I can't really see much of a difference between the summer months, but almost all of the box office grosses are relatively low in August. I wonder if "part of it" is a self fulfilling prophecy. August sucks so we won't release our prime movies then so therefore August has poor box office numbers. Why is May so awesome? Why is February often so stinky?

Traditionally, it's basically been a studio dumping ground. Very rarely have movies broken through big in August -- M. Night's movies did well, as did Rush Hour and Bourne Ultimatum (?) but I do think it's more of a self-fulfilling prophecy with the studios, that they put whatever there, market them as little as possible, and then see if they can catch the public before school kicks into full gear and summer winds down.

 

[InCali]

Traditionally, it's basically been a studio dumping ground. Very rarely have movies broken through big in August -- M. Night's movies did well, as did Rush Hour and Bourne Ultimatum (?) but I do think it's more of a self-fulfilling prophecy with the studios, that they put whatever there, market them as little as possible, and then see if they can catch the public before school kicks into full gear and summer winds down.

Thanks. I guess the studios have to dump the stuff they think won't go over big sometime. Seems like January/February would be better. After the holidays and so forth. Like I said, they know more about this than I do and I suppose they have their reasons.

Bangladesh, huh? That oughta put 'em over the $1 billion mark.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early projection for Guardians over the four-day weekend is $19 million+. Stays at No. 1.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-new...night-report-as-above-so-below-scares-up-470k

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Sorry, double post.