Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[LucDisfilm19]

I too think it might be $800M WW. If it can't reach a billion worldwide, which I'm still hoping it will reach, it can reach $800M.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think $320M domestically and $480M internationally.

 

[Spiderdevil]

I think $320M domestically and $480M internationally.

480M seems like a stretch.
Probably would be something like 375-420M.Ofcourse that could change if China eats up the movie like T4

 

[JKKS085]

So the 3-days week end is looking like 3.8/6.2/6.3 for a 16.3M total.
It could actually get very close to 21M for the 4 days we.

 

[Iceman]

$20m plus is excellent at this stage. What is TMNT expected to do?

 

[Docker2.0]

It doesn't strike me as the kind of movie that will shred overseas, but I hope I'm wrong. Xformers is much more suited for that because of it's sophisticated dialogue (I'll KILL you, etc.).

Man that movie sucked. I like Wahlberg, but the movie was barely watchable.

Don't get me started on my Bey hate! I hate every movie that dude puts out!

 

[Tymminator]

$20m plus is excellent at this stage. What is TMNT expected to do?

From BOM, Ninja Turtles - $11.5 million Fri-Sun, $15.7 million Fri-Mon.

 

[JKKS085]

$20m plus is excellent at this stage. What is TMNT expected to do?

It sure is. I don't see it dropping much more than 30% tomorrow so it should make another 4.1/4.5M that would put the 4 days total to 20.4/20.8M. If it holds just a bit better (which I think is possible/probable) it'll make more than 21M. Anyways it'll be very close to 280M by the end of the week end which was the main goal.

As for TMNT, I'd say it can now land anywhere between 14.5/15M.

 

[Iceman]

Nice, the road to $300m doesn't seem all that long now!

 

[JKKS085]

Nice, the road to $300m doesn't seem all that long now!

It should only take another couple of week ends I guess.
Seriously, a couple of months ago, who would have bet a cent on GoTG being the only summer movie grossing 300M+.
I don't even like the film all that much but it's BO run has been nothing short of stellar so far.

 

[Iceman]

I thought it might not catch on at all when I first heard they were making it but when I saw the trailers I was more confident that it would do well. Still not close to $300m though!

 

[Raiden]

Box Office Mojo:

Weekend Estimates:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy - $16.3 million
2. Ninja Turtles - $11.8 million
3. If I Stay - $9.3 million


Down only 5% from last week.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

By tomorrow, GOTG will have $555M worldwide and by next weekend with Guardians opening up in Greece, Cyphrus, and Bangladesh, the movie will have $600M worldwide.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Down 5%? Does that include Monday? Either way that's ****ing insane. I don't know the guy but I couldn't be happier for James Gunn. Similar to how I felt for Whedon after TAs opening weekend. They finally found the perfect project/opportunity to showcase their particular talents and a lifetime of accrued knowledge.

 

[Iceman]

Down 5%? Does that include Monday? Either way that's ****ing insane. I don't know the guy but I couldn't be happier for James Gunn. Similar to how I felt for Whedon after TAs opening weekend. They finally found the perfect project/opportunity to showcase their particular talents and a lifetime of accrued knowledge.

Agreed.

No it includes Fri - Sun (last weekend was $17.2m) but the 3 day figures will see a boost anyway from being part of a 4 day, especially the Sunday. So the 4 day will be a fair bit higher than last weekend's 3 day!

 

[InCali]

It doesn't strike me as the kind of movie that will shred overseas, but I hope I'm wrong. Xformers is much more suited for that because of it's sophisticated dialogue (I'll KILL you, etc.).

Man that movie sucked. I like Wahlberg, but the movie was barely watchable.

By the way, I didn't mean to imply that the overseas (I. E. Non-US) market enjoyed silly, simple phrases. What I meant is that films written in English don't always translate that well in another language and vice versa. Simple phrases are easier to translate no matter what language you're using. Humor and innuendo are much more difficult to translate.

And, I always use shred because, well, dude, I'm from California; right down by the beach.

 

[terry78]

You can't stop the Marvel juggernaut. *****.

 

[8ulk]

I think we are looking for a 315 mil DOM & a 425 mil OS finish which will put the total at 740 mil WW just under X-DOFP which i think will remain the n1 Superhero movie of the year at 746,5 mil WW. 800 mil WW is really unlikely. maybe 775 mil if something amazing happens.

GoTG will really need to BLOW UP in Japan and/or China to beat XDOFP. Which im guessing is not happenning. Personally im fine either way. Both films are successful and both deserved it.

P.S. ... And yeah Terry78. you cant stop the MCU Jaggernaut. There is no way.

 

[JKKS085]

I think we are looking for a 315 mil DOM & a 425 mil OS finish which will put the total at 740 mil WW just under X-DOFP which i think will remain the n1 Superhero movie of the year at 746,5 mil WW. 800 mil WW is really unlikely. maybe 775 mil if something amazing happens.

GoTG will really need to BLOW UP in Japan and/or China to beat XDOFP. Which im guessing is not happenning. Personally im fine either way. Both films are successful and both deserved it.

P.S. ... And yeah Terry78. you cant stop the MCU Jaggernaut. There is no way.

That sounds realistic. With a couple of major markets left to open and the current ones I think an additionnal 152M or so OS is an attainable goal. Now it can very well break out in China as well and make 100M+ there. At this point it's really anyone's guess.

Domestically, I'm not sure if it can go as high as 315M but with 279.5M after monday (if Disney's estimates hold) I'd say 305M+ is pretty much a given and 310M is still in play.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

You can't stop the Marvel juggernaut. *****.

Yep all four Marvel movies are in the Top 10 highest grossing this year t:

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Someone actually called it:



Although granted, the OS figured might be off a tad.

I'm certain that after the first trailer dropped I changed my prediction to $700m-$800m WW. I just don't have the time or patience to go back and find it

EDIT: original prediction when it was announced was $600m WW I believe. I've always had faith

 

[Raiden]

Yep all four Marvel movies are in the Top 10 highest grossing this year t:

Have you seen all four Marvel movies yet, including TWS?

 

[Raiden]

I think we are looking for a 315 mil DOM & a 425 mil OS finish which will put the total at 740 mil WW just under X-DOFP which i think will remain the n1 Superhero movie of the year at 746,5 mil WW. 800 mil WW is really unlikely. maybe 775 mil if something amazing happens.

GoTG will really need to BLOW UP in Japan and/or China to beat XDOFP. Which im guessing is not happenning. Personally im fine either way. Both films are successful and both deserved it.

P.S. ... And yeah Terry78. you cant stop the MCU Jaggernaut. There is no way.

I'm not gonna rule out Japan and China just yet; I think GOTG has earned that benefit of the doubt.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

Have you seen all four Marvel movies yet, including TWS?

Seen the other three not TWS yet

 

[Iceman]

Marvel Report Card:

GOTG - massively outperformed domestically, about expected overseas (low)
DOFP - Good legs to finish respectably domestically (not huge), massive improvement overseas
TWS - domestically & overseas very good improvements
TASM2 - Domestically massive disappointment, overseas still good numbers