Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

You think Ant Man if going to outdo TWS by over $200 million? No way in hell.

I never said that, I just said that the numbers could hold up. I'm sure AoU will have something connecting it to Ant-Man and with an awesome stinger it could really get people excited about Ant-Man. Plus you need to remember that the GA does not follow these movies as closely as we do so your average movie goer doesn't know about all the BTS drama around Ant-Man that all us fanboys are following. Marvel has been on a roll and they show no signs of slowing down so having a movie starring Douglas and Rudd centered around a heist is a pretty fresh idea that hasn't been visited too recently in Hollywood. So considering Ant-Man will be fresh off the heels from AoU and yet another completely new sub-genre in the MCU it has a very good chance of topping CA:TWS. Did you predict that GotG would outdo TWS? I know I did

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Saturday box office brings China's total to $94.47m so that would edge it in front of Spidey.

 

[Vincanws]

And with Sunday should edge it nearer $96m? Would $100m be possible by Thurs? Going to be tight.

 

[regnak]

I never said that, I just said that the numbers could hold up. I'm sure AoU will have something connecting it to Ant-Man and with an awesome stinger it could really get people excited about Ant-Man. Plus you need to remember that the GA does not follow these movies as closely as we do so your average movie goer doesn't know about all the BTS drama around Ant-Man that all us fanboys are following. Marvel has been on a roll and they show no signs of slowing down so having a movie starring Douglas and Rudd centered around a heist is a pretty fresh idea that hasn't been visited too recently in Hollywood. So considering Ant-Man will be fresh off the heels from AoU and yet another completely new sub-genre in the MCU it has a very good chance of topping CA:TWS. Did you predict that GotG would outdo TWS? I know I did

You said you didn't see any reason the numbers wouldn't hold up. The prediction he made was


2. Ant-Man-7/17/15-$1.015 billion worldwide ($515M domestically and $500M overseas)


That is $256 Million more domestic and $301 Million more WW. I repeat no way in hell. GOTG is currently $38M ahead WW, it might get up to $50M more than TWS. There is a big difference between a potential $50M difference and $300M.

 

[Iceman]

That overseas number is looking so much healthier after China.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Where are you guys getting China's Saturday numbers from? Sauce?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Swiped from the boxoffice.com forums.

I doubt it hits 100. It lost most of its screens this weekend to Turtles and I believe it's in its last couple days. Might make it to 98. Still way better than I thought it would do.

 

[Lilbaz]

Where are you guys getting China's Saturday numbers from? Sauce?

Ketchup or Brown?

 

[Lilbaz]

Swiped from the boxoffice.com forums.

I doubt it hits 100. It lost most of its screens this weekend to Turtles and I believe it's in its last couple days. Might make it to 98. Still way better than I thought it would do.

Please tell me Turtles is a flop. Couldn't bear it if that and Transformers did well this year. Couldn't finish either of them.

Makes me want to cry for humanity.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Based on opening weekend Turtles is projecting out to around $70m in China. So not a flop but not as good as Guardians.

Over at BOM Subers has started putting up his holiday movie projections. If he's right then GOTG will be the No. 2 domestic movie of the year behind Hunger Games.

 

[Iceman]

How much did Avengers do in China? Also what is the highest grosser in China to date?

 

[kedrell]

I think TF4 is the highest grosser to date with $300m(at least as far as foreign films go). Granted, when films like TF4, DoFP or IM3 have significant actors in their cast or settings which are Chinese(and don't make them look bad ala' TDK) then they can stick around at the Chinese box office until the demand for them dies out naturally much the way the rest of the world does it. With all other foreign films(like GotG, TWS, TASM2, etc.) they get a limited window for release and then the Chinese government pulls them out to give favorable treatment to their own home made cinema. GotG had 1 month to get as much as it could and that's almost up so it'll be pulled within a week.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I still hope Guardians can reach $775.5 M by the end if it's worldwide run and make it into the top 50 movies of all-time worldwide beating out Star Wars from 1977.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How much did Avengers do in China?

$84 million.

 

[Iceman]

I think TF4 is the highest grosser to date with $300m(at least as far as foreign films go). Granted, when films like TF4, DoFP or IM3 have significant actors in their cast or settings which are Chinese(and don't make them look bad ala' TDK) then they can stick around at the Chinese box office until the demand for them dies out naturally much the way the rest of the world does it. With all other foreign films(like GotG, TWS, TASM2, etc.) they get a limited window for release and then the Chinese government pulls them out to give favorable treatment to their own home made cinema. GotG had 1 month to get as much as it could and that's almost up so it'll be pulled within a week.

Wow $300m is crazy conpared to others. Big advantage not getting pulled out early. Will AoU be likely to get pulled out early too?

$84 million.

Thanks, lot of room for improvement then!

 

[LucDisfilm19]

So, Guardians run in China will end next Sunday, then?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Updated BOM number: $765 million WW.

Not bad for a bunch of a-holes.

 

[kedrell]

So, Guardians run in China will end next Sunday, then?

I don't know. I was guessing Thursday as that's the end of 4 full weeks.

 

[kedrell]

It is interesting an make me take stock of where we are. Marvel Studios has had the #1 film in the biggest genre(currently) for the last 5 years in a row both DOM and WW. It also will add another year next year to that list for sure with AoU(does ANYBODY think FF has a ghost of a chance?) so that'll be 6 years in a row. Not to mention that with that next year will come 4 years in a row for it's winning the summer crown. And I think it's got a better than average shot at repeating this all in 2016 with Civil War and 2017 with GotG2 as well. 2018 and 2019 are near locks so the distinct possibility exists to run the board on this entire decade.

 

[InCali]

It is interesting an make me take stock of where we are. Marvel Studios has had the #1 film in the biggest genre(currently) for the last 5 years in a row both DOM and WW. It also will add another year next year to that list for sure with AoU(does ANYBODY think FF has a ghost of a chance?) so that'll be 6 years in a row. Not to mention that with that next year will come 4 years in a row for it's winning the summer crown. And I think it's got a better than average shot at repeating this all in 2016 with Civil War and 2017 with GotG2 as well. 2018 and 2019 are near locks so the distinct possibility exists to run the board on this entire decade.

Does anyone know if Cameron is making another movie about blue people?

 

[Creo]

Does anyone know if Cameron is making another movie about blue people?

I've heard that Avatar 2 and 3 are currently being worked on.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

So, I guess judging by how long Iron Man stayed in theatres and how much ahead of it in money Guardians has made according to Box Office Mojo, I'm now predicting Guardians will have $333M domestically & $443M overseas for a worldwide total of $776M, enough to beat Star Wars from 1977 and enough to be in the Top 50 Movies of All-Time Worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think the Avatar sequels will make Avatar money. But I can see the final Infinity War films doing so. The MCU might seem huge now but if AoU and the other announced films leading up to IW all have at least IM/TWS/GOTG quality then this thing will go into orbit.

 

[kedrell]

Well, Avatar not being a superhero or comic book property and it's sequels probably getting the same holiday season release time as the original, they didn't factor into my thinking.

 

[NJCaliboi]

I don't think the Avatar sequels will make Avatar money. But I can see the final Infinity War films doing so. The MCU might seem huge now but if AoU and the other announced films leading up to IW all have at least IM/TWS/GOTG quality then this thing will go into orbit.

The hype that will surround Avatar will no doubt help bring in "Avatar" money. It's gonna be huge!! TF4 can do it, so it's hard to imagine it won't. To be clear Im not saying it's gonna make more than the first I'm just saying its gonna make enough to be comparable with most successful movies of today. Not many movies will make more, lets put it that way.