Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

The Avatar sequels each should be able to pass the billion mark, assuming Cameron's magic touch holds. But that's still a helluva fall from $2.7 billion.

 

Yea, I don't see them hitting nearly the mark of the first. The biggest thing about Avatar was that it was filmed in 3d and it was the first movie to actually use it well. I don't see that novelty helping the second two nearly as much.

 

I don't think it'll hit 3 billion WW or anything crazy like that. The stars have to align "just" right for something like that to happen. If the sequel(s) are really good though, it could go high....verry high.

 

Does anyone think Guardians of the Galaxy will pass the worldwide total of the Star Wars from 1977 at the end of its worldwide run?

 

Yes, I do. Actually unless I'm missing something it should be there already. BOM is usually behind a weekend on the China numbers. They still have the Chinese total as $84m when we know from the international watchers at box office .com that it's already at $94m after this weekend is added. That's a whole extra $10m which if accurate means the WW total is already at $775m as of yesterday.

China is gonna pull GotG out any day now so it has very little left to make over there. Maybe another $5m at most. I'm now hopeful that it can beat SM2's $783m WW total. It's got maybe $2m more DOM and maybe $3-5m left from Italy plus maybe, just maybe it can scrape together another $1m from everywhere else in the world. I think a final total of $783m-$785m is likely.

 

Report is Italy added another $1.5 million over the weekend, bringing Guardians' total there to $5.6 million. But that was a 50% drop from OW because it got bigfooted by Dracula this weekend and Interstellar opens next weekend. Doesn't sound like it will be able to match Winter Soldier's $9.7 million or Dark World's $11 million. Oh well.

 

I think it'll make over a billion but it's going back to Transformers levels rather than what I was calling Avatar money - in other words roughly what the 1st made. I think Avengers will act more like a regular blockbuster and see sequel gains all the way through to IW2 while Avatar was more of a one-off event and its base franchise level is not actually close to $3B. I also think the last 2 Avengers films might challenge the 1st Avatar even worldwide (which is crazy) and beat it domestically. Actually I wouldn't even rule out AoU from doing it domestically.

 

So 780m is a sure thing?

 

No. It turns out BOM had the right overall OS/WW total even though they hadn't updated their individual totals by country so that's why the $10m was missing from China. They have since corrected that. So the total really is $765m so far. In that case I don't see it getting beyond $775m at the most. It should finish anywhere between $770-775m.

 

I'm predicting The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies will cross $300m DOM and $1b WW. I also predict it'll beat TF4 to with the WW title for the year.

That's interesting. I just hope it's substantially better than TF4 (how could it not be??). Just out of idle curiosity, where do you see part 1 of THG3 settling in DOM and WW?

 

Since I don't like that franchise I hope for declines all around. Under $400m DOM and under $800m WW. But that's probably just my bias against YA films talking. But I'd love it if it failed to reach GotG's WW number making GotG almost certain for the #3 spot WW this year. Since it'd have to fall a ridiculous $90m+ to be under GotG DOM, I just can't see any way that's possible unfortunately.

 

At the end of this weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy's worldwide total will be $773M. By the end of its worldwide run, it's worldwide total will be $775.5M, according to my calculations, which means it should pass Star Wars from 1977 and be the 50th best movie of All-Time Worldwide.

 

It's at 773 including the latest international #'s?

 

Yeah I think Hobbit will do that. Not a massive amount more though. It just hasn't got a very high profile at the moment for how big a film its supposed to be. THG I think will do close to $400m domestic. Not sure what to expect overseas on that one

 

Guardians has now reached $330M domestically.

 

Just $1.5m to go now to have the best legs of any superhero blockbuster in this century, beating SM1. C'mon GotG! You can do it! $768m WW so far. Will cross $770m in about a week I guess.

 

Well the $330m figure held. Disney reports accurately unlike Paramount.

 

Looks like the final tally for China is $96.5 million. Not the magic 100 but still a great result.

 

Predicted Final Tally-770M

 

Pretty damn close to the 800m WW mark. So glad this movie did so well. I wonder what the phase 3 lineup would have looked like had this flopped like some folks were predicting?

 

It's at $770,104,000 WW right now. It should grind to a halt before $775m WW.

I wouldn't be concerned with it missing the top 50 WW since it would have just been kicked back out when Hobbit 3 comes out in a month anyway. Star Wars will end up getting kicked out of the top 50 WW when that happens. And THG3 could easily also push them further down a spot as well(though there is a small room for hope for an upset there in the WW #'s). But Hobbit 3 is a lock from the word go to pass that mark WW.

 

There's very, very little doubt that Pt. 1 of Mockingjay will go past $775M WW. Pt. 2 will, in all likelyhood, make more than Pt. 1 unless Pt. 1 is a real stinker.

One thing that I find to be a minor annoyance is box office numbers for re-releases. It's just not an apples to apples comparison when you have a movie that has only been released once (Think Avengers and Titanic). Avengers had higher DOM totals than Titanic after their first release runs were over. Titanic got re-released and is the #2 DOM box office movie. Doesn't work for me.

 

Well THG3 is currently well below either of it's predecessors on the RT meter which indicates the likelihood of poorer WOM than those had which would adversely effect it's box office a bit. Plus there's news that it may not play in China(due to subject matter) which would be a huge hindrance to it's WW box office. GotG may make it to #3 WW this year after all.

As to the Titanic thing, it also in it's original run didn't have any 3-D boost plus we're dealing with unadjusted numbers. On the flip side, Titanic never had to compete in a multi-media market the way Avengers did, which would surely hinder it's performance to an unknown degree. Basically the 3 greatest box office stories of this century are Avatar, The Avengers and The Dark Knight.

 

Adjusted for Inflation. Gone With the Wind still kills it.

 

Very early domestic estimates on Mockingjay from last night appear to be (relatively speaking) disappointing. It's still projected to top $100 million but not by much and the mixed reviews may give Guardians a shot at holding it out of the top spot. Let's hope!