Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

Fingers crossed.

 

[kedrell]

Adjusted for Inflation. Gone With the Wind still kills it.

It should, it's had better than half a century in rereleases to grab all the money it can. Plus the time periods are so vastly different as to make comparison simply based on adjusting inflation a ludicrous endeavor. GWTW never had to deal with 'other media' competition. The inflation argument is only germane when the compared films are relatively close in regards to the time they were released, like within 10 years of each other for modern movies. Otherwise there are too many extraneous variables to even begin to make an accurate comparison.

 

[Curmudgeon]

Exciting news about Hunger Games. Not that I have anything against the movies/books. I just want Guardians to stay number one.

 

[kedrell]

Well I'm tickled pink about this. GotG could possibly remain #1 DOM of the year. And it ain't just my loathing for Y/A movies talking.

 

[Curmudgeon]

It'd be incredible though. A true dark horse.

 

[Lilbaz]

It should, it's had better than half a century in rereleases to grab all the money it can. Plus the time periods are so vastly different as to make comparison simply based on adjusting inflation a ludicrous endeavor. GWTW never had to deal with 'other media' competition. The inflation argument is only germane when the compared films are relatively close in regards to the time they were released, like within 10 years of each other for modern movies. Otherwise there are too many extraneous variables to even begin to make an accurate comparison.

So why compare it to the likes of Titanic? That was 14 years ago.

Tbh I'm not that bothered. It did well enough to get a sequel, that's all that matters.

 

[Iceman]

If it did somehow finish as no.1 against established blockbusters like Mockingjay it would raise the stock of comic moves (partocularly universe movies) even further.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BOM's estimate is that it will do $125 million OW, a bit better than projected yesterday but still well short of the first two movies.

 

[Iceman]

I was quite interested in Hunger Games for the 1st but for some reason I'm not anticipating the last ones as much as I feel I should be. Definitely same for The Hobbit as LOTR is one of my favourite film series.

 

[kedrell]

If BOM's guess for OW is correct then even if it had the legs of CF(which had much better WOM) then it'd top out at $325m DOM. Factor in the China trouble and yes this could lose to GotG both DOM and WW.

 

[kedrell]

So why compare it to the likes of Titanic? That was 14 years ago.

Tbh I'm not that bothered. It did well enough to get a sequel, that's all that matters.

Well that's just going by the straight numbers as that's how it's ranked in Hollywood(to do otherwise would be way too complicated) and admittedly it doesn't mean a whole lot since these films are not competing directly on the same playing field. But they gotta rank it somehow and this is simplest.

Honestly a ranking means far less when all is said and done that does how it fared vis-a-vie how much it cost to produce.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BOM estimate is $123 million for OW. Their take:

If Mockingjay holds up like the first two Hunger Games movies, it will close with around $330 million, which would put it below Guardians of the Galaxy. It's rare that the third movie in a franchise holds up as well as its predecessors, though: a more likely outcome is a total just over $300 million.

 

[Iceman]

The odds of Guardians finishing no.1 domestic are shortening every day!

 

[Wildcard]

I thought we all knew Mockinjay was going to take the title for No.1 domestically this year? It was a given considering the immense success of the first two films & the fact that anticipation for this installment was rampant.

But that really doesn't matter, GOTG still won big this year by being a huge success with all new comic book characters. That's the biggest thing to take away from it all, it got the point across that audiences can & will support seeing new characters on the big screen.

 

[kedrell]

It also says that the audience is getting sick of this 'splitting the last book into 2 films' crap.

I'd say at this point GotG is likely winning the DOM race of 2014 unless TH3 gets a big boost due to it's finale' status. Honestly, I'd be happy with either winning as they are my two favorite media franchises(Tolkien's Legendarium and the MCU).

 

[marcvader]

Not to derail but I just havent gotten into the Hobbit films and its production the way I did with the LotR. Regardless of the different tones of the books, I loved them all, these just didnt grab me. On to the Silmarillion I say.

 

[kedrell]

I don't think they'll ever do the Silmarillion. I think Tolkien's son still holds the rights to it. Plus I think the only way it could perhaps be attempted is in TV miniseries format. High quality, HBO level hopefully. But again, it'll probably never happen.

Anyway, I think MJ1 will end up around $750M WW leaving GotG at probably the #3 spot WW for 2014 after TH3 and TF4.

 

[InCali]

Adjusted for Inflation. Gone With the Wind still kills it.

Ughhhh.....comparing GwtW to any modern day (or even not so modern day) movie is like comparing I don't know what to I don't know what. In other words, it makes no sense whatsoever. GwtW was released and re-released over decades in an era where there was much, much less competition as far as movies go, when there were way, way fewer alternatives when it came to spending your entertainment dollar, when there was virtually no home video recording capabilities, etc. They didn't even have TV until a decade after GwtW was released and most people didn't have them until years after that. Color TVs weren't generally available (ie affordable) until 25 years after GwtW was released and the color sucked. Ask yourself if someone who has a blu ray disk of GwtW and a 120" screen with a HD projector (like I do) or even a 55" HD TV if they would have gone to watch "any" movie that was re-released that many times.

I've heard these sorts of arguments before and they really make no sense. I'm not trying to be rude, but I can't compare apples to oranges. They're both good and I just leave it at that.

The bottom line is that GotG was a smash hit and may well end up being the #1 domestic box office hit of the year. Quite an accomplishment for a bunch of unknown a-holes in this or any other year.

 

[InCali]

It should, it's had better than half a century in rereleases to grab all the money it can. Plus the time periods are so vastly different as to make comparison simply based on adjusting inflation a ludicrous endeavor. GWTW never had to deal with 'other media' competition. The inflation argument is only germane when the compared films are relatively close in regards to the time they were released, like within 10 years of each other for modern movies. Otherwise there are too many extraneous variables to even begin to make an accurate comparison.

Thank you. Sorry for the rant.....sorta.....

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It also says that the audience is getting sick of this 'splitting the last book into 2 films' crap.

Could be. Might also signal that we've passed the peak for the "young adult dystopia" genre, which for me has only been slightly less annoying than the Anne Rice-fueled "everything is vampires" era.

Re the Silmarillion, I would crawl over broken glass for a high-quality miniseries. Heck, I'd even break down and order HBO. But IMO it has huge potential as a franchise if the estate ever let go of the rights. You have a bunch of top-notch set pieces (Turin, Beren & Luthien, Tuor/Idril/Fall of Gondolin, etc.) set to an overarching plotline that culminates in a clash between the gods.

But instead we get the bloated three-part Hobbit. Sigh. It's not that it's been that bad, mind you, but the money grab is so blatant I just can't enjoy the movies.

 

[InCali]

Could be. Might also signal that we've passed the peak for the "young adult dystopia" genre, which for me has only been slightly less annoying than the Anne Rice-fueled "everything is vampires" era.

Re the Silmarillion, I would crawl over broken glass for a high-quality miniseries. Heck, I'd even break down and order HBO. But IMO it has huge potential as a franchise if the estate ever let go of the rights. You have a bunch of top-notch set pieces (Turin, Beren & Luthien, Tuor/Idril/Fall of Gondolin, etc.) set to an overarching plotline that culminates in a clash between the gods.

But instead we get the bloated three-part Hobbit. Sigh. It's not that it's been that bad, mind you, but the money grab is so blatant I just can't enjoy the movies.

That would be beyond awesome. You could even start with the creation, the building of Valinor, Aule's creation of the dwarves, the fall of Melkor, the murder of Finwe, Feanor's madness, the kinslaying....wow....the mind boggles.

I'm one of those that doesn't mind "breaking up" a movie into 2 or 3 parts if there's a reason. In fact, I wish the LotR "trilogy" (Tolkien wanted it to be a single book, but was overruled by the publisher....no one would read a 1500 page book..... ) had been six movies and not skipped over some really interesting and important parts (Barrow Downs, Bombadil, etc.). I don't, however, think "The Hobbit" needed to be 3 films. Definitely smells like a money grab and I think they are using the elvish character (don't remember her name offhand because she wasn't in the book) to set up the coming friendship of Legolas and Gimli. Didn't appreciate that little tidbit and don't find it necessary.

Edit: And, you have ties from the First Age to the Hobbit and LotR with characters like Galadriel, Celeborn, Elrond, Sauron, and Cirdan.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Tauriel IIRC. I'm "meh" on that addition overall though the whole "elf/dwarf romance" subplot was/is ridiculous. And yes, the Silmarillion offers vast possibilities, though a lot would depend on getting someone(s) who loved and understood the property to do it right.

Back slightly on topic, Mockingjay's OW actuals came in a bit below estimates at $121.9 million, so it has just a $27.6 million lead on GotG.

And FWIW GotG pulled in another $491k this past weekend, which put it over the $331 million mark domestically. That weekend number was +68% over last weekend thanks to a gain of almost 100 theaters...looks like they are giving it one last little boost for the turkey day weekend.

 

[kedrell]

Hopefully GotG can grab that last $500k to beat the first Spider-man's legs and thus have the best legs of any superhero movie since the original Burton Batman movies.

 

[Iceman]

I'm watching the blu-ray now. Really love this film!

Hope these guys are around for a long time.

 

[InCali]

I'm watching the blu-ray now. Really love this film!

Hope these guys are around for a long time.

You're watching the blu ray of GotG?!? OK, maybe I'm being naive, but doesn't it get released in December? Is this some sort of wink wink nudge nudge and Bob's your uncle sort of thing? Is this some sort of inside thing that's beyond the reach of us commoners?