Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

Just not a big fan of the genre, but hey as you can tell from my screen name, it isn't aimed at me!

Possibly interesting anecdote: two years ago when the first HG movie came out, my daughter (then 14) and her friends were all over it. Saw the movie, got the books, were anticipating CF, the whole nine yards. This year? No interest whatsoever. They are basically over it.

 

And it's out today!!!!!

I am freakin' stoked.

Edit: And it's only $20 at Best Buy. I wish I could legally choke the person who decided to systematically not include the DVD with the other disks. I would also add the person to my list of chokees who came up with the digital copy $#!t that really isn't a digital copy.

 

The whole tone of the franchise has changed. It's become a movie more about politics (all groups seemingly slimey with self absorbed) and revolutionary actions (though I daresay there are still those elements you find annoying t. That loses a lot of the fan base. I like Jennifer Lawrence and her sarcastic bent on things. Doesn't come out in the movie though.

 

Strange how HG hype has changed from the 1st 2. It's as if things are going through the motions to bank the cash left and see it out.

 

Might be, but I'd take a domestic gross in the neighborhood of $330M and my bank would be looking a lot different than it does now. Lionsgate never had a property like this one before now. It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall and know what the bigwigs are saying behind closed doors. The general "feel" of the movie went through such a change that it almost doesn't even feel like the same genre.

I just remembered that I have to get my car smogged today so that'll slightly delay my viewing of GotG. Man, it seemed like the release over here took FOOOOOOOREVEEEEEERRRRRR. I was wishing I was over the Atlantic so I could watch it.

 

Yeah, huge gap between the release dates. Is that a one-off or does it happen often?

Big numbers were guaranteed for these last 2 HG films but they've failed to kick on to generate a whole lot more than off their own back. Like AoU is guaranteed huge numbers even if it is a pile of **** ($1.5B again I'd say minimum with small overseas expansion if domestic reduces) but if it happens to be awesome it can do an extra 40/50% or so.

 

Haven't been here in a while and glad to see how well this film is STILL doing. Love that the next installment is going to get a big boost. Catch ya in the other MCU prediction threads!

 

Hopefully the next one does over a billion. Wouldn't take a massive boost for that to happen.

 

I'm doubting that Mockinjay will pass GOTG domestically (maybe not even WW). It's done big numbers thus far & it's impressive, even if it's below the previous movie, but I still don't see it passing GOTG at this point. Guardians had way better legs starting off & it's still around now, which says a lot in a day and age where a movie can be out of theaters in a flash if it's not performing well.

 

Watched it last night in 3D. Had in-laws in town so I had to delay my viewing for a couple of days. Man, I sorta forgot how much fun that movie was when I first saw it. Love Rocket's plan (I need that prosthetic leg).

 

Haha, loads of great sequences in the film. One of my favourites is when Rocket and Groot 1st show up and try to capture Pratt who is grappling with Gamora. Great scene all the way to..'how much this is going to hurt'. t:

Most fun movie I've seen in ages.

 

Me too. I remember walking out of the theater with a big grin on my face and thinking that it made up for all the disappointing films earlier in the year like SpiderMan, Transcendence, and (the #1 stupid piece of $#!t movie of the year) Transformers.....

How that movie made so much money is so far beyond me that I don't even want to start the journey.

 

And I hope the grin is twice as big after GotG2. The box office thread for that should be really interesting.

 

Transformers wasn't as much of a success as people think...yeah, it made $1 billion but I think they overspent. I'm almost certain they were expecting to do GOTG-esque numbers in the U.S., which clearly wasn't the case.

All in all, I'd agree that this is a welcome reprieve after crappy movies like that. But at the same time in addition to GOTG we also got DOFP & TWS so I think it just about balanced out.

 

Yes. Both DoFP and TWS were very enjoyable, but......for me the disappointment of wasting time and money (3D, large screen money to boot) to watch a steaming pile of $#!t like Xformers really sticks with me (at least until I strike gold the next time out). Wasn't a success you say? Not artistically, but pass the billion minus expenses down to So Cal and I'll come pick it up. t:

 

Haha well played my friend, well played.

And I'm not saying it was a huge flop or anything, just that behind the scenes that billion dollars wasn't as much of a win as it was for TF 3. Think about how quickly Transformers came out on DVD. Maleficent, which made over $750 million, stayed in theaters for about 6 or 7 months, as have films like TWS & GOTG. TF stayed in for barely three months or so. That right there says a lot.

TF may have made a billion dollars but TWS, DOFP & quite a few others were A LOT more profitable and thus, bigger successes even though they didn't hit that number.

 

So good chance of Hunger Games not catching GotG.

 

Either way it looks like it will be close. Mockingjay is $25 million ahead of where Guardians was 25 days after release, so it's closed some of the gap from OW. And day vs. day Guardians is starting to outpace Mockingjay now.

In the end I think Mockingjay will fall short...but ask me again after the holidays.

WW we will have to wait, Mockingjay's China opening has been pushed to February.

 

I think Mockinjay will come close but won't pass GOTG (at least not domestically). With the new Hobbit film coming out, that's likely to put a halt to some of their profits. Not to mention the other various new releases.

 

I think domestically the rate of catchup is going to get bigger every day from here on in. GotG had amazing legs and Mockingjay wont be the newest big film out any more.

 

Yep, GOTG was the big thing for a while and even when new releases came out it still managed to overshadow them. Mockinjay ain't gonna be able to eclipse the Hobbit. I'm not a fan of the franchise but I do recognize they have a massive following who will show up for the films.

If that film weren't being released, I could probably see it passing GOTG's domestic total.

 

I was reading that if Mockingjay tracked Catching Fire from here on out, that it would end up at $335M. Catching Fire also had Desolation of Smaug opening right on it's heels. One way or another, it'll probably be close. Doesn't "really" matter though....both GotG, HG, and the Hobbit are going to make a TON of $$$. None of those studios will be complaining about their wallets when all is said and done.

 

Yeah, I know. At the end of the day I'm happy that all three of the films will be looked back as legitimate successes but I was & still am hoping GOTG can retain the number #1 spot. I just feels it deserves it so much.

But either way it goes, like you said all three have made tons of money and a change in positions won't alter that.

 

Right. I just want studios to make a whole bunch of movies that people enjoy and will pay to see (even if they're ones I don't particularly like, but, please, more like GotG and CA:TWS). I'd hate to see theaters go the way of the drive in theaters of old and hope we maintain that part of our entertainment culture. At this point, Home Theater doesn't fill the niche and I don't want it to. It's fun going out in public, having lunch/dinner, and going to see a movie at the XD or IMAX theater (I can't count how many times I've said to myself "Man I wish I had one of those at home").

My favorite movies of the year:

#1 GotG
#2 CA:TWS (very close to #1)
#3 Edge of Tomorrow (....thanks to Emily Blunt....would LOVE to see her in MCU)
#4 DoFP (close to #3)
Honorable Mention Snowpiercer, Dawn of Planet of the Apes, Interstellar, Mockingjay (sorry folks, I like Jennifer Lawrence), and The Hobbit.
Worst was Transformers (I can't even think about that movie without wanting to vomit because I foolishly thought I might like it and paid top dollar to see it first day)

All in all, not as bad a year as I thought it was going to be the middle of last summer. Looking forward to "Into the Woods" (Not quite my cup of tea, but Emily Blunt is in it so I'll give it a shot).

Went and saw the final installment of The Hobbit at the IMAX down in Irvine. The HFR "really" makes a difference in the texture of the film (a "REAL" film). I don't know if I like it or not, but it's very different visually. I wonder if this is something that will be used much in the future or if this is a Peter Jackson thing......

One other thing about 3D. I notice a lot of ghosting with the linear (IMAX) 3D, some with the circular (Real) 3D, and "none" with my home theater (DLP) 3D. Since I put together my home theater, I've become WAY more sensitive to ghosting (ie I notice it now where before I didn't). Glad I'm not sensitive to the Rainbow Effect.

 

I actually think that in terms of comic book films this was one of our best years yet. With the exception of TASM 2 & a few minor duds (i.e Sin City 2) it was a fantastic year.