The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

153.5 million is a great opening weekend number.

 

[TX85]

Very happy for the success!

 

[JOE]

153M 2nd weekend, this movie is a BEAST! Do you guys think it can still do 100M next weekend or is that loony?

 

[InCali]

Sayin' it now. TFA will be pushing 1B by the end of MLK weekend (a holiday weekend which will help BO numbers) and will be there by the end of the 5th week (Jan. 21st).

That's an aggressive prediction, but definitely possible.

I said it sounded crazy when I wrote it, but I really felt that TFA would be on track for 400M after last Thursday and 550M after the weekend. I can see close to 200M over the next 7 days. That puts it right on Avatar's heels as of the weekend ending January 3.

Does anyone still think 1B isn't happening? It's going to have very, very good holds for the next 3 weekends and I think this can play well into March with decent numbers.

 

[InCali]

153M 2nd weekend, this movie is a BEAST! Do you guys think it can still do 100M next weekend or is that loony?

That will be difficult, but possible. I think it'll be north of 90M.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If this estimate holds and it doesn't increase by a good amount I don't see another 100 million weekend. I could easily be wrong of course but I'd say 95mil at best.

 

[Tymminator]

How much of a bump does a New Years weekend give usually?

 

[Serpico Jones]

David Poland thought the movie was going to open with $110m. Lol.

 

[InCali]

David Poland thought the movie was going to open with $110m. Lol.

Maybe he meant week 3??? That would have been reasonably close..... t:

 

[cheungcheung]

How much of a bump does a New Years weekend give usually?

I think Dec 31st will be a down night due to people not wanting to spend New Years at a theater

 

[DarthAlani]

David Poland is a ****** that hates every popular film. He was the prototype Armond White.

 

[InCali]

David Poland is a ****** that hates every popular film. He was the prototype Armond White.

Why don't you tell us how you really feel instead of beating around the bush about it?

But, but, but......it wasn't bad for a 3rd weekend prediction. Maybe he's just 1/3 of a ****** and is actually smarter than a bar of soap.

 

[mclay18]

Does anyone still think 1B isn't happening? It's going to have very, very good holds for the next 3 weekends and I think this can play well into March with decent numbers.

The gap between Avatar and TFA is growing each day -- TFA has $300M more than Avatar has at its current pace. I'm thinking TFA hits $600M domestic by New Year's Eve and hit $700M by that Monday.

I would say $900M is the ceiling for this. Still skeptical about TFA hitting $1B domestic until it materializes.

 

[JaD]

I've been meaning to ask this for a while and since I and everyone is watching this movie destroy the box office I'll ask in here.

How and why do weekend estimates come out at the beginning of Sunday? Sunday is the weekend too, right? Don't they need to wait until EOD Sunday to get the estimates for what was sold on Sunday? I never got why these numbers come out Sunday morning when Sunday night hasn't even arrived.

For someone who knows a lot about box office records and such I feel like I should know this already or something

 

[Last Of Krypton]

Those boxoffice numbers...

 

[InCali]

The gap between Avatar and TFA is growing each day -- TFA has $300M more than Avatar has at its current pace. I'm thinking TFA hits $600M domestic by New Year's Eve and hit $700M by that Monday.

I would say $900M is the ceiling for this. Still skeptical about TFA hitting $1B domestic until it materializes.

This rookie is calling you out. That means an average of about 15M per day over the next 4 days. I think it'll be over 20M (maybe closer to 25). With a 90M weekend (1/1-3), I put it's BO at around 730M by Jan 3.

Now, I realize there's some overlap in our predictions, but if a movie like this does 90M in it's 3rd weekend with very little competition for another 2 weeks and can play into March, I think another 3X multiplier from 90M is easily doable and another 170M after that is way, way too low.

Stepping out into the OK Corral.

 

[Octoberist]

When I think of the people who actually like Avatar, I think of people who look like Brian Dnnehy.

 

[InCali]

I've been meaning to ask this for a while and since I and everyone is watching this movie destroy the box office I'll ask in here.

How and why do weekend estimates come out at the beginning of Sunday? Sunday is the weekend too, right? Don't they need to wait until EOD Sunday to get the estimates for what was sold on Sunday? I never got why these numbers come out Sunday morning when Sunday night hasn't even arrived.

For someone who knows a lot about box office records and such I feel like I should know this already or something

I don't consider myself an expert at this (my recent posts notwithstanding t: ), but, from a statistical perspective, having 2 days of weekend information gives you a better grasp of what will happen the next day than if you have no days of weekend information (Friday guesses) or one day of weekend information (Saturday guesses). In other words, it's easier to spot trends with somewhat reliable past information. The more relevant past info you have, the better chance you have of being close in your predictions.

Make sense? Anyone out there who is more eloquent/better informed than I am (and, yeah, I KNOW there are....)?

 

[Mysteryman]

Wow, they made all that money without my help this weekend...

They knew you couldn't make it this weekend so they picked up the slack!

 

[mclay18]

When I think of the people who actually like Avatar, I think of people who look like Brian Dnnehy.

Avatar is an unparalleled technical achievement and Cameron should be commended for it. But it's cliched and doesn't need a sequel, let alone THREE.

TFA is so much better than Avatar, it's not even funny.

 

[The Chris]

Heck I consider myself a fan of Avatar and I have no interest in a sequel and want star wars to beat it.

 

[Octoberist]

It's a fine movie that Avatar, but I think it's the weakest film in Cameron's filmography.

Cameron has never been good with plot (if you analyze T2, it makes no sense) but he does characters well. The plot in Avatar was okay, but sadly the characters were just okay too.

 

[mclay18]

It's a fine movie that Avatar, but I think it's the weakest film in Cameron's filmography.

That's a big understatement.

True Lies and Titanic alone are vastly preferable to Avatar.

 

[The Caped Knight]

"Impressive, Most Impressive!!!!

 

[Greens]

# of days until the 1 billion mark:

Jurassic World: 13 days with China
The Force Awakens: 12 days without China

Pretty good.