The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[danoyse]

The only thing that really surprised me was the second week drop off, I didn't think it would hold so well. But other than that as unprecedented as this is, given the franchise we're talking about it really shouldn't come as that big a surprise in hindsight. This isn't a situation where there was no indication of just how big it could be. There may be popular franchises out there but they are all dwarfed by Star Wars.

So many people were waiting for Christmas weekend, I’m not surprised the hold was so good.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So many people were waiting for Christmas weekend, I’m not surprised the hold was so good.

It makes the opening weekend even more impressive.

 

[jokesonm3]

You know i wonder if Star Wars Episode 8 will be this big.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You know i wonder if Star Wars Episode 8 will be this big.

This big? No. But it will be big.

 

[jokesonm3]

This big? No. But it will be big.

But will it be close, opening weekend wise?

 

[danoyse]

The response to this one has been overwhelmingly positive, so between that and the legions of Star Wars fans, the next one will be big.

But this one is the first SW movie in 10 years, and the first with OT characters in over 30 years. That novelty will have worn off by the time VIII gets here, so I don’t expect to be as insanely big...but it will be big.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But will it be close, opening weekend wise?

It could have the second biggest opening, but I don't see it doing this well. This is new trilogy smell. The same happened with TPM.

 

[Bruce Malone]

But will it be close, opening weekend wise?

Opening will probably be in the 200 range still but closer to 200 than 250.

I believe every Star Wars sequel has dropped in box office, ESB and Attack of the Clones.

Age of Ultron performing less than Avengers 1 wasn't a blip, I'm quite sure the JW sequel will also see a drop.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah one need to look no further than Avengers Age of Ultron's performance. It's a massive hit but not as big as the first film, franchises just can't sustain audiences to that degree...at least not in the states. I think people need to stop looking at drop offs from once in a lifetime hits as a disappointment or failure. I do think the next one's reviews have a shot at being just as good though.

 

[Tilapia]

The best decision from a producer standpoint was not featuring Skywalker in the film. This absolutely increases the anticipation of the next flick, as it will be marketed as the sort of Return of the Jedi if you will. I think that bodes extremely well for Episode 8. The biggest problem is the lack of a compelling villain. Nothing interesting about Snoke just yet, and Ren was kind of a pushover. This will be problematic in terms of featuring an omnipotent threat. How much Hamill will be able to do live action wise also remains to be seen, but I'd imagine most of his action scenes will be stunt double and CGI, if he's even given a major light saber duel. And Ridley is gonna have to bulk up to be a believable Jedi IMO. Just a really frail, skinny girl from a Hollywood action star standpoint. She probably doesn't have a lot of time to do so. Driver versus Ridley just isn't a compelling face off for me physically, even though the characterization is solid. As bad as Christensen was as Vader, he at least had the height and the stature, and Anakin versus Obi Wan felt like a fitting culmination. I don't see that same build up with what we have at the moment.

 

[jokesonm3]

Yeah, plus it opens on May rather than December which spells some major competition.

But honestly i wouldn't mind the sequels being a Christmas tradition every two years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah one need to look no further than Avengers Age of Ultron's performance. It's a massive hit but not as big as the first film, franchises just can't sustain audiences to that degree...at least not in the states. I think people need to stop looking at drop offs from once in a lifetime hits as a disappointment or failure. I do think the next one's reviews have a shot at being just as good though.

The starting point matters. LotR increased with each film because it wasn't in outer space. AoU beating Avengers, if the hype was real, shouldn't have been impossible. JW did it. TFA obliterated it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Kylo Ren was a good villain and obviously they will expand on the other villains. And if people cared about super compelling villains then Marvel movies wouldn't be so popular.

The starting point matters. LotR increased with each film because it wasn't in outer space. AoU beating Avengers, if the hype was real, shouldn't have been impossible. JW did it. TFA obliterated it.

Eh I think Avengers had a novelty to it that was always going to wear off with the next film. If it were as well received and reviewed I think AOU could have done around mid 500's but that's as far as I'm willing to go.

 

[Snow Queen]

Kylo Ren was a good villain and obviously they will expand on the other villains. And if people cared about super compelling villains then Marvel movies wouldn't be so popular.

Well, come on, there's Loki...............and Loki........

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well, come on, there's Loki...............and Loki........

Oh yes that is always the response. I get a decent chuckle out of it.

Anyway...Star Wars, it's doing great!

 

[Tilapia]

Star Wars is built on the hero/villain relationship, and while there is an obvious connection between the two presented here, I'm not that curious or intrigued by it. It's not really gonna have the same twist as the, "I am your father" effect, since that would be expected, whether it's cousin vs cousin or bro vs sis. So from that standpoint, they really need to think outside the box. Hell, even if Rey and Finn are related to Snoke, it just comes across as gimmicky no matter what the choice is.

 

[PacificBoy]

TFA had its red-carpet premiere in Shanghai last night and it seems the audience in attendance loved it, so word of mouth coming off that could be huge, and should pick up the so-so ticket presales at the moment.

Hard to read the online buzz based on comments made. A fair few are looking forward to it while others are indifferent. My own friends are playing down its chances, but concede the lack of other good movies opening around the same time helps it loads. Till Kung Fu Panda 3 that is.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TFA had its red-carpet premiere in Shanghai last night and it seems the audience in attendance loved it, so word of mouth coming off that could be huge, and should pick up the so-so ticket presales at the moment.

Hard to read the online buzz based on comments made. A fair few are looking forward to it while others are indifferent. My own friends are playing down its chances, but concede the lack of other good movies opening around the same time helps it loads. Till Kung Fu Panda 3 that is.

Hong Kong's underwhelming reaction TFA has me worried about TFA's box office performance in China.

 

[Sithborg]

It is going to be interesting. I agree that there is going to be a dropoff, but I think that ending will help keep the drive for more. Definitely not doing $57 million Thur night, though.

 

[jokesonm3]

Forget China, Taiwan number one!

For those that get that reference.

 

[PacificBoy]

Hong Kong's underwhelming reaction TFA has me worried about TFA's box office performance in China.

Yeah, how well a movie fares in HK is usually an indicator of it'd do in the mainland. Have to factor in that Ip Man 3 (a massive local favourite) is opening at the same time, so takings are lost in the keen competition. Also, compared to a more mature market in HK, China's booming moviegoing crowd has a bigger appetite for the next Hollywood blockbuster.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Eh I think Avengers had a novelty to it that was always going to wear off with the next film. If it were as well received and reviewed I think AOU could have done around mid 500's but that's as far as I'm willing to go.

That is my point. Avengers, while beloved, was more novelty then something like Star Wars is. Star Wars is the genuine cinema king. Just look at the ticket sales for the movies people don't even like.

 

[The Chris]

That is my point. Avengers, while beloved, was more novelty then something like Star Wars is. Star Wars is the genuine cinema king. Just look at the ticket sales for the movies people don't even like.

I would tell my friends about that with Star Wars. Look how much money Phantom Menace still made that year.

 

[jokesonm3]

Yeah, how well a movie fares in HK is usually an indicator of it'd do in the mainland. Have to factor in that Ip Man 3 (a massive local favourite) is opening at the same time, so takings are lost in the keen competition. Also, compared to a more mature market in HK, China's booming moviegoing crowd has a bigger appetite for the next Hollywood blockbuster.

Didn't know that HK reception affects mainlands reception, interesting.

 

[jokesonm3]

That is my point. Avengers, while beloved, was more novelty then something like Star Wars is. Star Wars is the genuine cinema king. Just look at the ticket sales for the movies people don't even like.

True, Star Wars is the ruler of nerd culture itself, something that superheroes, video games and animes can never do.