The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[writer0327]

I expected a little more out of China as well, not huge, jaw dropping numbers, but more than what we're seeing. Is this going to lead to Chinese actors in the next film? You better believe it.

 

[InCali]

I expected a little more out of China as well, not huge, jaw dropping numbers, but more than what we're seeing. Is this going to lead to Chinese actors in the next film? You better believe it.

Yeah. It's already confirmed for Rogue One, but I don't think it had to do with how TFA did at the Chinese box office. This has surely been in the works for awhile. I don't think you cast someone a week after TFA opened in China unless there had been discussions well in advance.

 

[JOE]

It's already passed Titanic's first go round. The second release in 3D garnered over 300M years later. If TFA gets a re-release (maybe added footage or some other kind of makeover) down the road in 5-10 years, I could easily see it passing Titanic's totals with its second run included.

No chance they're going to rerelease this movie in 5-10 years. Maybe in 20 years or so. The next 5 years is going to be Disney putting out a movie every year on the average while the franchise is hot. Even if it's rereleased in the future it won't make the same money the Titanic did being around 300M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$1.8 million more in the till Wednesday, down from $3.1 million last Wednesday. Not big numbers but another good hold.

 

[Wildcard]

No chance they're going to rerelease this movie in 5-10 years. Maybe in 20 years or so. The next 5 years is going to be Disney putting out a movie every year on the average while the franchise is hot. Even if it's rereleased in the future it won't make the same money the Titanic did being around 300M.

Exactly. People like to bank on re-releases adding a huge bulk to the gross but it's not gonna work out that way. I kind of even doubt that they re-release TFA.

Doesn't really make sense to when you look at. Odds are by the end of its run it'll pass Titanic, but will still have around $500 million separating its global gross from that of Avatar. And that's a number a re-release would not reach. So why even bother when the movie has already been a monumental success?

 

[spiderman2]

FWIW boxoffice.com is projecting a $16 million weekend for TFA, which strikes me as wildly optimistic but this film has surprised me before.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...e-revenant-the-boy-dirty-grandpa-the-5th-wave

I hope it can because at one point in time I thought we where going to see I billion USA and WW more then titanic. But then we had like 2 weeks in a row where the movie droped by a higher % then the first few weeks did. So maybe if we can get back to smaller drops we can still get to 1 Billion USA. Yeah I know it is not likely but hey I can dream cant I?

 

[spiderman2]

Exactly. People like to bank on re-releases adding a huge bulk to the gross but it's not gonna work out that way. I kind of even doubt that they re-release TFA.

Doesn't really make sense to when you look at. Odds are by the end of its run it'll pass Titanic, but will still have around $500 million separating its global gross from that of Avatar. And that's a number a re-release would not reach. So why even bother when the movie has already been a monumental success?

While what if on opening night for episode 9 they gave you the option to watch 7,8,9 in a row like how when dark knight rises came out you could go and watch batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises in a row? I think that would be awesome!

 

[spiderman2]

The drop over January 8-10 and less than expected (at least by me) numbers from China were what really hampered the box office totals; IF you can call a movie that will do over 900M DOM and 2B WW "hampered". Just saying it could have been more if those two pieces had fallen into place.

I think The Revenant pulled in more than expected (by me anyway) and clearly hurt TFA's totals over Jan 8-10. That weekend made it look more like a summer blockbuster than a late December release. Other than that, TFA has held up really, really well. To beat Avatar's DOM numbers by anywhere from 20 to 25+% is, to put it mildly, staggering.

Yeah sounds about right. A few weeks ago it looked like the movie was going to end at about 1 billion USA. Now it is looking more like 950m. So that is 50m less. Then it is looking like it is going to only make around 125m china. Even if say it did around JW numbers in china of like 220m I think it was that would be another 95m. Now with that and USA you are talking about like 145m more. With 145m more it would for sure get past titanic WW I am sure.

 

[Wildcard]

While what if on opening night for episode 9 they gave you the option to watch 7,8,9 in a row like how when dark knight rises came out you could go and watch batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises in a row? I think that would be awesome!

That's a whole different situation & would make a billion times more sense than a straight up re-release. I think any movie studio would find doing that to be a reasonable action, but going for a full re-release would be more of a hindrance than an actual bonus.

 

[spiderman2]

That's a whole different situation & would make a billion times more sense than a straight up re-release. I think any movie studio would find doing that to be a reasonable action, but going for a full re-release would be more of a hindrance than an actual bonus.

Yeah I don't know how much trouble it is to do a re-release and how much time needs to go by for it to really be worth it but yeah showing 7,8,9 in a row would be awesome. I didn't do the dark knight trilogy marathon because I didn't have my linces at the time and couldn't find any body to go with. But consider the dark knight trilogy is my favorite trilogy of all time I would have done it if I could have. Consider star wars is my favorite franchise and considering how awesome 7 was if 8 is great to then I would love to do it with star wars.

 

[spiderman2]

I am just wondering how long do IMax tend to play movies for? The regular theater where I live tends to play movies for about a month and a half and I have heard that IMAX tends to not be played has long has regular theaters play movies. The reason I ask is because I just found out that the closet IMAX theater to me is going to play the movie threw reb 11. I was surprised has that is like 1.75 months witch is like about a week longer then most movies tend to play at the regular theater I go to where I live. So I thought the movie would be down already in the IMAX that is the closet to me. At the same time I live in a small town and the IMAX that is the closet to me is like a hour from me and in a much much bigger city so maybe that has something to do with that to.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Usually films don't get long runs in IMAX, maybe two weeks, but IIRC Disney locked up every IMAX screen in existence for four weeks for TFA. Beyond that it's up to theaters. It doesn't surprise me that it's still in IMAX since unlike summers there hasn't been another blockbuster tent pole every weekend or two. It's still showing at my local IMAX as well.

Speaking of theaters TFA drops another 457 this weekend. Still in 3,365.

 

[DKDetective]

FWIW boxoffice.com is projecting a $16 million weekend for TFA, which strikes me as wildly optimistic but this film has surprised me before.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...e-revenant-the-boy-dirty-grandpa-the-5th-wave

Well, boxoffice.com has tended to be the most sober and realistic in their predictions, in comparison to deadline, so this is a very good sign then.

 

[spiderman2]

Usually films don't get long runs in IMAX, maybe two weeks, but IIRC Disney locked up every IMAX screen in existence for four weeks for TFA. Beyond that it's up to theaters. It doesn't surprise me that it's still in IMAX since unlike summers there hasn't been another blockbuster tent pole every weekend or two. It's still showing at my local IMAX as well.

Speaking of theaters TFA drops another 457 this weekend. Still in 3,365.

Really IMAX only 2 weeks? That sounds to short. I know IMAX tends to be shorter but 2 weeks so really short. For what it is worth the IMAX theater I was talking about that is going to end up showing star wars for about 1.75 months showed JW for I think about 4 weeks and then they also did a short re-release of just the weekend at one point in time. So around 3 weeks shorter then what they are doing for star wars.

 

[Wildcard]

Well, boxoffice.com has tended to be the most sober and realistic in their predictions, in comparison to deadline, so this is a very good sign then.

$15 or $16 million sounds pretty accurate. None of the newcomers this week are juggernauts by any means, so TFA should still be able to muster that much.

Crazy as it sounds, there are still those that may not have seen it yet. And then of course there are the huge fans that will be wanting to get out to support it further.

So yeah, those numbers sound about right.

 

[PacificBoy]

$15 or $16 million sounds pretty accurate. None of the newcomers this week are juggernauts by any means, so TFA should still be able to muster that much.

Crazy as it sounds, there are still those that may not have seen it yet. And then of course there are the huge fans that will be wanting to get out to support it further.

So yeah, those numbers sound about right.

A local chap has seen TFA 42 times -- and is planning to continue seeing it daily until it finishes its theatrical run.

 

[Bruce Malone]

A local chap has seen TFA 42 times -- and is planning to continue seeing it daily until it finishes its theatrical run.

Even for a devoted fan that seems like oddly obsessive behavior.

 

[PacificBoy]

Even for a devoted fan that seems like oddly obsessive behavior.

More than a bit, yeah. He's self-employed and apparently schedules his work around his daily viewings.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$3.5 million Friday. Weekend projection from boxoffice.com is now $14.3 million. I have to think the big East Coast snowstorm cost it $1 million or so.

 

[Erzengel]

State of Emergency here in NJ and NY. Been advised to stay off the road.

 

[Wildcard]

A local chap has seen TFA 42 times -- and is planning to continue seeing it daily until it finishes its theatrical run.

Yikes! Don't get me wrong, I've gone out of my way for films I like (mainly promoting them & surprisingly getting people to go see them) but that's a whole 'nother level right there.

I can imagine watching a DVD a million times if I love a movie. But seeing it that excessively while its in theaters? No thanks.

More power to him, though.

 

[Filmfan93]

If I had seen TFA 42 times, I would probably hate it by now. I mean, I love the movie, but that many times of viewing it, I would be probably sick of everything Star Wars related afterwards. By the time the Blu-Ray hits, this guy will have seen it what, around 60-70 times? How will he even find the will to go and buy the Blu-Ray in the store? My opinion though.

 

[Spider-Gnome]

State of Emergency here in NJ and NY. Been advised to stay off the road.

This, and not the fact we have to wait longer, is why I'm not happy they are moving Episode VIII to December. Can you imagine if we get a storm like this for opening day? I'd rather it moved to May 2018 if they need more time. It still be less than the three year waits we had for the other Star Wars films.

 

[Solidus]

This, and not the fact we have to wait longer, is why I'm not happy they are moving Episode VIII to December. Can you imagine if we get a storm like this for opening day? I'd rather it moved to May 2018 if they need more time. It still be less than the three year waits we had for the other Star Wars films.

They are not delaying it for "more time". If you read the Press Release filming starts for VIII in February. Originally it was late January. After they announced moving to December Avatar 2 was announced to be delayed....coincidence...probably not.

Disney is huge, they don't want to start to cannibalize their own projects. GoTG2 would take somewhat of a hit with SW being a few weeks after it. They also have their Pixar films and their normal Disney films like Pirates etc. The thing is they are moving it there because December did so well for them last time. Can there be a risk of storms? Yes, of course, but since films in December have no competition for months, I'm betting most the time people just go see it next week or the week after.

May '18 is loaded with Disney films as well. But again, this has nothing to do with needed a lot more time in production.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Closing in on $2 billion WW. From @boxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS: $1.06B Overseas Total / $1.94B Global Total #StarWarsTheForceAwakens