Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]449821[/split]

 

[mclay18]

I know it's little under a year until Thor: The Dark World hits theaters, but might as well begin early predictions/speculation about how it'll perform come November 8, 2013.

I think Disney and Marvel were smart to pick that date. The goodwill carried over from The Avengers (and presumably IM3), should give Thor 2 a boost. If the marketing and word-of-mouth is good too, I expect numbers like these:

Opening weekend: $75M-80M
Domestic gross: $230M-$250M
Worldwide gross: $600M-$700M

I don't expect those numbers to be higher, unless Thor 2 really blows people away.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Don't feed the obvious troll guys.

 

[Mysteryman]

If this weekend teaches us anything,
It is that ANY movie can provide competition even a romantic comedy.

 

[warriorking]

If this weekend teaches us anything,
It is that ANY movie can provide competition even a romantic comedy.

So it looks like by Monday evening we should break the 150 million mark domestic..

 

[ironman_rick]

Thor's WW.Domestic: $146,965,000 30.6%+ Foreign: $332,800,000 69.4%= Worldwide: $479,765,000Domestic: $146,965,000


Domestic: $146,965,000 30.6%
+ Foreign: $332,800,000 69.4%
= Worldwide: $479,765,000


Looks like the floor is $600M and ceiling is $700M.

Not bad......

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

It's thrilling to see Thor do so well at the box office. Thor is such an outlandish character and concept. I'm glad general audiences are digging it.

 

[Vartha]

Heard this morning TDW pulled in another 38.5 mil this weekend

 

[Mysteryman]

So it looks like by Monday evening we should break the 150 million mark domestic..

That is good news .
Your 200 million by Monday prediction was a bit off though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^That's a bit catty to bring that up.

 

[warriorking]

I stand corrected and will take my medicine
However 150 Million is nothing to sneeze at...

 

[Mysteryman]

I agree and I apologize.
But he could have just said TDW made 150 million , instead he quoted what I said about the success of BMH ,I felt like he was saying "stay on topic".
I felt singled out, so I struck back.
Talking about competitors has always been okay here.
I mentioned BMH because for a long time people here have said TDW had NO COMPETITION in week 2 .
But on Friday, more then a few people were sweating out the possibility that BMH could have a 35 million dollar weekend.
I was pointing out that ANY film can provide competition against a blockbuster,
It was not an Anti Thor comment.
I would be very interested in knowing if there was a drop among women for TDW this weekend.
IF there was , my guess is they went to BMH.

 

[Mysteryman]

I stand corrected and will take my medicine
However 150 Million is nothing to sneeze at...

I agree and I apologize for my snarkiness.

 

[warriorking]

So whats everyone's prediction for this weekend?
I say 20 to 25 million for TDW..CF I predict 170 million.

 

[Liam_H]

$15-18m

 

[Docker2.0]

So whats everyone's prediction for this weekend?
I say 20 to 25 million for TDW..CF I predict 170 million.

I hope your right but I see more around $18M max.

 

[Mysteryman]

Dont know about TDW , your CF prediction might be accurate.

 

[Mysteryman]

$15-18m

How big a drop would that be?

 

[Liam_H]

55-60%, I believe it drops similar to this weekend so around $18M.

 

[Mysteryman]

55-60%, I believe it drops similar to this weekend so around $18M.

Well if it drops around the same as this week,
Then, I take that to mean CF didnt have that much of an effect.
If it does drop more then , it did have an effect .

 

[Liam_H]

I believe it would have dropped around 50% without something as big as CF coming out, that's why I'm going with 55%.

 

[Mysteryman]

Ah.
Pretty good logic IMO.

 

[superion]

If TDW can get $21 million next weekend it still has a chance at a $240 million domestic total. Right now a good comparison for TDW is Oz the Great and Powerful which made $234 million domestic and opened in March.

Thor is currently slightly ahead but had a smaller second weekend take. If its third weekend box office can be about the same as Oz' third weekend the Thanksgiving boost could take it to $240 million which was the original estimate tossed around by box office pundits and would give it the same 33% increase that IM3 had over IM2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'd predict 16.6mil which is a 57% drop. I don't see it getting under a 55% drop with CF coming out. This isn't Twilight about 40-45% of it's audience should be men.

 

[Mysteryman]

Wow.
I didnt realize THG Franchise performed so well with men.
Impressive.