Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Discussion in 'Thor: The Dark World' started by Thread Manager, Nov 17, 2013.

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  1. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    Just about all the Marvel sequels have increased worldwide at the box office.

    This allows a steady stream of Marvel sequels and a further expansion of MCU.

    As Marvel fans we are very lucky.

    I think after Avengers and IM3 broke the bank we got a little spoiled and took all future successes for granted.

    Did you pessimist consider what would happen if Thor 2 bombed. Disney might've re-considered Marvel's plans for phase 3. We averted a potential disaster with Thor 2's 600+ m box office performance.
     
    #101
  2. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    It just means Thor 2 is frontloaded which is normal for sequels.
     
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  3. insideguy

    insideguy Well-Known Member

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    Yea but if it frontloaded what is the backload going to look like?
     
    #103
  4. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it is just typical sequel frontloading.
     
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  5. superion

    superion Well-Known Member

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    Most reasonable people probably were not expecting more than $240 million. $250 max if the reviews were great. The reviews were not great so it will fall more in the $210 or $220 range.

    The foreign box office on the other hand is bigger than I expected. It will actually out gross MOS overseas so I guess that makes up for the lower domestic number.
     
    #105
  6. ares834

    ares834 Vader's Fist

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    Clear 230 mil? That's not going to happen. It would need a 2.67 multiplier and there is no way it's getting that kind of multiplier.
     
    #106
  7. psylockolussus

    psylockolussus Well-Known Mutant

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    I meant 2013, not 2012.

    If you posted this before the film's release, you would have gotten a different reaction.

    Anyway, we know that most people/fans here expected so much more with this film's current b.o. takings. But since its not getting as big as they thought it would, they are now defending the film like as if their expectations were met.

    A few months ago when I said that this wouldn't get $700 million worldwide because MOS didn't even cross $700 million. I got a lot of negative reaction and look whats happening now. It looks like it won't get more than $700 million.

    Its not bad at all. But lets not pretend, people didn't expect for more.
     
    #107
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2013
  8. tek

    tek Well-Known Member

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    it is good for thor that overseas markets are making its domestic take less relevant. go thor 3
     
    #108
  9. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    Thor 2 is on track to beat Iron Man and Iron Man 2 worldwide, making it the third biggest Marvel Studios film.
     
    #109
  10. Tymminator

    Tymminator The Main Man in Minnesota

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    It's over 500M WW now. It still has life left, but it will be interesting to see how much it's hit this upcoming weekend.
     
    #110
  11. insideguy

    insideguy Well-Known Member

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    Its going to get pounded. Hunger games is getting great reviews. Actually amazing reviews. Its going to be the biggest movie of the year. They are projecting a 167 million dollar weekend for HG. Thats more than thor has made in two weeks.
     
    #111
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2013
  12. warriorking

    warriorking Well-Known Member

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    Still won't top IM3 however....I think TDW still grabs another 20 Million this weekend...

    As for Thor and his rejection of becoming King, I think it will come full circle in the 3rd Movie installment.
    Regardless of how he feels I think circumstances in Thor 3 will dictate his return and he will have no choice but take the crown...
    Question being is will Jane be at his side...
     
    #112
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2013
  13. T"Challa

    T"Challa Well-Known Member

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    It'll be fine. I predicted a 630-650 mill box office and it looks like i will be right on line. 650 mill on a 170 mill budget is a very very successful movie. Especially for one released in November. This is Thor we're talking about, if i had told you his movie would be blowing out Wolverine and X-Men numbers 2 yrs ago, you'd have laughed at me.

    Iron Man is clearly a separate beast. only 4 movies in history can top IM3. That should not be a benchmark for any other superhero not named Batman or Spiderman.

    So yeah, Thor is a great success, not an insane success. If anyone is really disappointed, you need to realign your perspective.
     
    #113
  14. insideguy

    insideguy Well-Known Member

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    I see 15 million max for Thor this weekend. Its possible it gets some people who cant get into hunger games. Oh an I think Hunger Games tops Iron man domestic. I dont know how it will play world wide but the first one made over 700 million. I think there is a very good chance it beats IM3 worldwide as well.
     
    #114
  15. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    A 45% drop on the weekend of a guaranteed 150+mil opener? Yeah that probably has a 1% chance of happening.

    Iron Man made 800mil internationally, Catching Fire isn't going to get close to that IMHO. It will do 600mil at best overseas. As for domestic if it has good word of mouth sure I think it can beat Iron Man's domestic number.
     
    #115
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2013
  16. Marvin

    Marvin Well-Known Member

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    Marvel has always had good luck and timing with their release vs competition. Especially with early numbers.
    this weekend should be telling
     
    #116
  17. warriorking

    warriorking Well-Known Member

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    Consider also that their advertising cost was low as well since they(Disney) own several media outlets....
    It all adds up to a VERY nice profit that has everyone smiling...
     
    #117
  18. Suzanne78

    Suzanne78 Abs Without Fear

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    I remember when superhero movies that weren't Batman/Superman/Spider-Man/X-Men and were lucky to get to $100mil, much less $200 million.

    Now Marvel Studios can pretty much safely claim that they're a major CBM franchise starter in Hollywood, Thor's inching closer to $200 million domestic and we're worried whether it should be considered a success domestically?

    Wow.
     
    #118
  19. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    @Suzanne78 It's because a lot of people are under the delusion that 300mil is an easy number for a comicbook movie to hit domestically. A lot of people think 800-1bil worldwide are just easy numbers to hit and they are not. I really hope this brings people and the studios expectations back down to earth.

    Even after the Thor: The Dark World's opening you still had posters saying it has a shot at 300mil despite it being obvious that it had no chance. The expectations are just so over the top now or days.
     
    #119
  20. warriorking

    warriorking Well-Known Member

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    :woot: I will make a prediction that the next installment of Thor will top 100 million opening weekend..
    Seriously though, TDW at over a half a billion dollars and rising makes one proud to be a Thor fan...
    Well Done Mr. Taylor...Well Done...
     
    #120
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2013
  21. dalonewolf

    dalonewolf Well-Known Member

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    504mill ww
    Is 352mil the full foreign total
    im asking because last weeks foreign total was at 344mil im just wondering if 8mil s all it got ?
     
    #121
  22. Mysteryman

    Mysteryman Well-Known Member

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    170 million?
    That is not a bad budget
    I had heard it was over 200 million.
    Glad to know that was wrong.
     
    #122
  23. Mysteryman

    Mysteryman Well-Known Member

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    Gonna give a little shout out to both Kenneth Branagh and Joss Whedon,
    Since they helped build up Thor to this point .
     
    #123
  24. Mysteryman

    Mysteryman Well-Known Member

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    I think some people felt that because the scale for the sequel was so much bigger that they might get a bigger domestic result , even close to The Avengers.
     
    #124
  25. Mysteryman

    Mysteryman Well-Known Member

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    But, its domestic take is still relevant , to say it isnt is implying TDW is a failure domestically, which it is not.
     
    #125
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