Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Discussion in 'Thor: The Dark World' started by mclay18, Dec 6, 2012.

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What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?

  1. 500 Million

  2. 550 Million

  3. 600 Million

  4. 650 Million

  5. 700 Million

  6. 750 Million

  7. 800 Million

  8. 850 Million

  9. 900 Million

  10. 950 Million

  11. 1 Billion plus

  12. 500 Million

  13. 550 Million

  14. 600 Million

  15. 650 Million

  16. 700 Million

  17. 750 Million

  18. 800 Million

  19. 850 Million

  20. 900 Million

  21. 950 Million

  22. 1 Billion plus

  23. 500 Million

  24. 550 Million

  25. 600 Million

  26. 650 Million

  27. 700 Million

  28. 750 Million

  29. 800 Million

  30. 850 Million

  31. 900 Million

  32. 950 Million

  33. 1 Billion plus

Multiple votes are allowed.
Results are only viewable after voting.
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  1. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    I know I just been thinking about how much more star powers Hemsworth has nowdays than he did for Thor 1.

    Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the 3rd biggest film of all time, that may not translate to Chris' other roles but it will translate for Thor. Plus Thor:TDW will be coming directly off the heels of IM3 another guranteed billion dollar movie.
     
    #26
  2. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    Was there some kind of poll or something? How do we know Thor was the third most popular? Other than Iron Man and Hulk it's really hard to say what other characters stood out. Black Widow's role got more acclaim than Thor's last I checked.
     
    #27
  3. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    Critic's opinion don't have weight with B.O. numbers, that comes from the GA which clearly saw Thor as 3rd most popular.
     
    #28
  4. ThePowerCosmic

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    I don't doubt that, but how did you come to the conclusion that the GA saw Thor as 3rd most popular, BT?
     
    #29
  5. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    Just think about, whenever the Avengers are brought up Hulk, Iron Man, and Thor are by far the most discussed.

    Alot of people don't even know Black Widow's name, even though her role was pretty darn big.
     
    #30
  6. ThePowerCosmic

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    That's true. I guess that makes Cap 4th most popular.
     
    #31
  7. DieSmiling

    DieSmiling Can't Be Stopped

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    Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

    I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.

    I think $200mm is the mark for success domestically -- anything less than that would be very disappointing. I think anything over $225 is a very good success -- $250mm is probably the most realistic goal, I have a hard time seeing the movie go much bigger than that.

    Internationally is tougher to gauge -- overseas popularity of 3D and continued international expansion keeps driving up the overseas takes of mega blockbusters. I'd guess $350mm, maybe $400.

    Prediction:
    Domestic: $210mm
    International: $360mm
    WW: $570mm
     
    #32
  8. Ash Talon

    Ash Talon Well-Known Member

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    Very well put. I think your predictions are very reasonable and possible. I don't think Thor 2 will get a huge boost from Avengers, but it will get some kind of boost.

    Obviously, IM3 will do rather well. How much of a post-Avengers boost it gets will be interesting. It'll be more interesting to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 perform. Will the uber-success of Avengers spill back into the solo adventure movies? I'm curious to see how it all plays out.
     
    #33
  9. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    You seem to forget that Iron Man 2 came out before the box office juggernaut know as The Avengers. Iron Man had arguably the biggest role in the film and was the second most popular character behind Hulk.

    Guaranteed billion was an exagerration but honestly this film is going to do any less than 850 million. Oh and Thor may have been an after thought as far as screentime, but he still left a big impression with the audiences (much bigger than Cap).
     
    #34
  10. DieSmiling

    DieSmiling Can't Be Stopped

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    I agree the Avengers will have a big impact on IM3's box office, but jumping from $650mm to $950 (my estimate) is a big impact.

    I agree in terms of $850mm. I'd be very surprised if it didn't eclipse that, I just think $1b isn't guaranteed. I'm not sure Thor left as big an impression as you are but I agree that Iron Man and Hulk clearly made the biggest impressions (why aren't they making another Hulk movie again?) then the next slot would be debatable... Both Cap and Thor had a few good one-liners but weren't as awesome as they could have been...
     
    #35
  11. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    Honestly though, making 950 million is basically the same as reaching a billion.


    You see Cap had the most screentime in the film and Thor didn't show up until 45 mins into the movie. So for Thor to leave a bigger impression than him says alot and although he didn't say much Thor probably had the most action scenes in the film.

    THAT'S what people remember from Thor, headbutting IM's helmet in, going toe to toe with Hulk, frying two leviathans at once, and using a car as a bowling ball.
     
    #36
  12. kedrell

    kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    I'm thinking IM3 will be able to do that billion $ but it's not a shoe in. That'll be about the ceiling. ThorTDW I'll give it's ceiling at basically TASM numbers WW. $750M.
     
    #37
  13. kedrell

    kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    You see, these numbers(IM1 WW basically) I'd have given ThorTDW if it solely had been relying on the reception from Thor1. But because of TA I'd say:

    DOM: $300M
    INT: $450M
    WW: $750M
     
    #38
  14. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

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    Loki and Cap are a bit more discussed than Thor I'm afraid, thankfully Loki is in this film so that's a moot point.

    Domestic: $280M
    Oversees: $420M
    World Wide: $700M
     
    #39
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2013
  15. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    ^ I actually agree with you on that for once, Cap is more talked about than Thor. Thor probably got the shortest stick out of all of them, but Hemsworth is nice eye candy (no homo) so he gets a pass on it I guess.
     
    #40
  16. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

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    Well Thor had the least amount of screen time among the big 4 (and even less than BW) but the reason for that is obvious. The film already had Loki and Selvig in prominent roles, if Thor had any more screen time it would have been "Thor and His Amazing Friends." LOL I love using that reference.
     
    #41
  17. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    I disgaree, Thor is definately more talked about than Cap and Loki is only talked about more because of the Hulk slam.

    Loki's menacing qualities also took a hit from that, so I'd rather Thor be less popular and more respected.
     
    #42
  18. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

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    It's fine if you disagree, and I'm not going to try to talk you out of thinking so, but from my own observations, Captain America is unanimously more popular than Thor. On every character poll I've ever seen, Cap was always ahead of Thor. And Loki was more popular than Thor before The Avengers was even released. Loki's been popular since the first Thor. The Avengers is just a extension of that previous popularity.

    Now if you're talking about action moments only, Thor was way more talked about than Cap. Thor was talked about more than Iron Man when it comes to fights and action.
     
    #43
  19. ctsketch

    ctsketch Well-Known Member

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    my gal friends talk about Cap's rear more than Thor's arms as well, haha
     
    #44
  20. itchyscratch

    itchyscratch Well-Known Member

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    Think of The Avengers as a boy band. Or a male stripper group. You have all types in there to cater for all female tastes. And your natural preferences are either clean cut Cap with not a hair out of place or the slightest sign of stubble or big, hairy, rough & beefcake Thor.
     
    #45
  21. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    Those are usually polls in which comicbook fans are the voters, from my experience Thor seems more popular with the GA.
     
    #46
  22. Donar

    Donar Well-Known Member

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    That's my impression too.
    However, even among comic book fans, if we look at current sales for example, these things are changing.
     
    #47
  23. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

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    I've already had a similar argument with Mr. Dent and I don't really feel like having it again. I'm just telling you what I've observed. We're not going to agree on this though, so there's no point in trying to prove anything.
    Also, remember this? :hehe:
    Although eventually he settled in at #3

    Are you talking about comic sales? We're talking about the film characters here, specifically after The Avengers was released.
     
    #48
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Well-Known Member

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    Some twitter analytics

    Then you've got a poll done by Facebook:

    CBM's poll


    This one was done by some SEO group:

     
    #49
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
  25. JB-the-Hunter

    JB-the-Hunter Booty hunter

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    That's some nice research you did there, but something you have to take into account is whether you're talking about the brand names or the characters themselves, because search results tell you more about the brand names, while character polls tell you more about the characters themselves. In my case, I'm talking about the characters of Captain America and Thor, and as shown by the Facebook and CBM poll, as well as the many random internet polls out there, Steve Rogers/Captain America was more popular in that regard:
    http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/...ders-favorite-avengers-20120510/thor-19691231
    http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=382417
    http://i46.tinypic.com/2a69ic1.png
    http://www.quibblo.com/quiz/h68_6bZ/What-is-your-favorite-Avengers-character

    Thor as a brand is no doubt more popular, especially now that the trailer is almost here. But I was arguing BT's comment that Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the movie, which IMO isn't the case.

    But anyway, this is the box office thread and I don't want to derail the topic here. Thor definitely has a chance to make the kind of money The Amazing Spider-Man made.
     
    #50
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
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